It looks like Norwalk will be trouble. If Cerritos is the conservative area, then Norwalk but be a liberal counterpart if Havice(damn she's ugly) is from there.
61% in a third term, in a dem year? This is winnable, especially since the seat is open. Redistricting makes it tough to call either way.
ARTESIA, BELLFLOWER, CERRITOS, DOWNEY, HAWAIIAN GARDENS, LAKEWOOD & LONG BEACH.
Well, no Long Beach is certainly good. I know that ain't friendly. It looks like only part of Lakewood is there. It looks like only Artesia, Cerritos, part of Lakewood, and Norwalk are in the new from the old district.
Keep in mind this is guessing here. How does that part of Whittier vote? Santa Fe Springs and Norwalk are Hispanic from the post earier. From the drawing I see, I'd guess that the closer to the ocean, the most left-wing it is.
What's east of Cerritos? If Norwalk is hard left(That's a guess), that east area could make the difference. Especially if it is a fairly conservative area, and the home base is in the west end of the district(Whittier).
We only need 50%(or maybe less if it's three way).
Norwalk is, like Santa Fe Springs, majority Hispanic, but I refuse to believe this makes them liberals. They vote for the right, carefully crafted message. Hell, Bush the Elder carried Norwalk in '92, and that was a bad year for us (like many). And SFS is a largely industrial and commercial city, with few actual residents, targeting them will be a snap.
Cerritos and Artesia should be great area for us, they both also have a high Asian ancestry population, and are higher income areas. We have a slice of Lakewood in this area too, we should be good here.
Hawaiin Gardens is pretty Democrat, but small and easily dealt with.
Across the river we have our only city in Orange County, Buena Park, home to Knotts Berry Farm and Independence Hall West. We ought to do real good here even if the Dems have gained ground, plus the vaunted OC Republican machine should help us greatly.