The GOP's Big Senate Seat Flip Opportunity That Is Flying Under the Radar

Red State ^ | 08/26/2026 | Sister Toldjah

[SeekAndFind]

Understandably, a lot of national attention has been paid in recent weeks to the Senate races taking place in Michigan and Georgia, primarily because, in both races, there are Democrat nominees who have particularly acute cases of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and who can't keep themselves from stepping in it.

In the Great Lakes State, for instance, we have the anti-America, anti-Israel, DSA-backed Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who, as I previously noted, has the social media "skills," personality, and maturity of the average tween TikTok'er.  The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Sen. Gary Peters.

And in the Peach State, there is Sen. Jon Ossoff, who apparently thinks it's cute to casually smear a young cancer survivor who happens to be a top aide to President Trump by baselessly insinuating they were having an affair. The bulk of "Pee Wee" Ossoff's campaign funding, I should note, is from out of state (and from at least 39 billionaires), which, of course, is not a good look and tells us to whom he would continue to be most beholden if reelected.

While those are viewed as pickup opportunities for the GOP, there's another one where the political climate also seems ripe for a flip depending on how well the ground game is played: New Hampshire.

The primary in the Granite State isn't until September 8, but if current polling trends hold, it's shaping up to be a contest featuring Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), who is backed by unions, pro-abortion and gun control groups, versus Trump-backed former Sen. John E. Sununu, who previously held the seat for one term before Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated him in 2008 (Shaheen is retiring after this term). Before he was elected to the Senate, Sununu was a congressman for six years in the district that Pappas has represented since 2019.

As to how both are campaigning, here's how that's looked so far:

Pappas is running as a champion of the middle class, focusing on bringing down the cost of living, supporting public education and protecting Medicaid and Social Security. 

[...]

"These are the only two people who have been elected as Democrats to the Senate from New Hampshire in the last half a century," Pappas told WBUR, calling the coming election "a game of inches."

[...]

For his part, Sununu is running as a traditional conservative, promising to lower taxes and cut regulations "and make government work again." He's being helped by national Republican super PACs, who have already spent millions of dollars backing his campaign.

As a former senator, whose father and brother both served as New Hampshire governors, Sununu represents something akin to political royalty in the state.

As to what a hypothetical match currently looks like between the two, fresh polling from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and 7NEWS shows a tight race, "statistically tied,"  but with Sununu having a slight edge:

2026 New Hampshire Senate Race

🔴 John E. Sununu: 45%
🔵 Chris Pappas: 43%

This would be a 🔵 D -> 🔴 R Flip

UNH poll | 8/20-8/24 pic.twitter.com/YgqXAfjO6E— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 26, 2026

All eyes should be on New Hampshire. John Sununu will give Granite Staters the conservative voice that we deserve. This is the most overlooked Senate race. https://t.co/8RwRHuhy4x— Rep. Sam Farrington (@SamFarringtonNH) August 27, 2026

The last hypothetical general election race polling done by UNH, which was back in June, showed Pappas ahead of Sununu by three percent.  

To advance, Pappas needs to get by newcomer and self-described "peace activist" Karishma Manzur, who socialists in the state are said to be rallying behind. She has "significantly narrowed the gap," which is down to 13 percent, while 18 percent are undecided. 

UNH poll | 8/20-8/24

US Senate New Hampshire 2026
🟥John E. Sununu 45%
🟦Chris Pappas 43%
——
🟦Chris Pappas 45%
🟥Scott Brown 40%
——
US Senate New Hampshire Democratic primary 2026
🟦Chris Pappas 47%
🟦Karishma Manzur 34%

Link to poll: https://t.co/9jXdDHNiWi pic.twitter.com/F700lsHpXQ— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 26, 2026

On the GOP side, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown is challenging Sununu, but seems to be going nowhere, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing Sununu ahead by 33 percent.

It’s just one poll, but if anyone can win a Senate race in New Hampshire in a Democratic-favorable year, it’s someone with the last name Sununu. https://t.co/7rwL4OZt0s— Preston Hill (@realPrestonHill) August 26, 2026

Let's go!

[KingofZion]

Good catch. RCP rates the race as a “toss up” and Cook Report has it “leans democratic” but that may change after Sununu trounces Scott Brown as Sununu is running a much more competitive race in 1v1 matchup.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

I think Minnesota should be in the running as a potential flip also.

[ProgressingAmerica]

I get excited about left wing, progressive GOP Establishment taking over a seat in a state in which a conservative could not win.

I’m not kidding. I do use key words to highlight the point but I genuinely hope this is successful.

When guys like this run for seats (and win) in red states that really frosts me and makes me spit screws and nails. But wonderful for New Hampshire.

Could we get Cornyn to (relocate and) run for Senate in New York? I’d give a strong embrace. But heck no not Texas.

[OrangeHoof]

They can also flip Texas from RINO to blue if Paxton can beat Talafreako

[LongWayHome]

Sununu has this seat. I like Brown better (both Sununu & Brown are Rinos) than Sununu, but Sununu can win this; Brown will lose to Pappas.

[jacknhoo]

All the Democrats run on bringing down the cost of living, yet their history is in opposition to that claim. Pressed on how they will do that, they state stopping the Iran war, eliminating tariffs, and Medicare for all will accomplish that.

With the exception of Medicare for all, that’s where we were during the Biden administration when inflation was out of control, gas prices were higher than today and the country was flooded with 50 million illegal aliens (many from anti-American origins) that recked housing and social programs. China flooded the USA with fentanyl killing off 100k people a year and our military was being deconstructed and decimated with the evils of trans ideology and stagnant technology. 100s of billions going to corrupt Ukraine/Russia boondoggle. Trillions of dollars going into corrupt anti-American NGOs. Of course so much more…

It is a sad state of affairs.

Disappointing and disturbing that our populace have such short memories and others who have not so short memories but ulterior motives.

[Ex-Con777]

> All the Democrats run on bringing down the cost of living, yet their history is in opposition to that claim.<

Spot on!

They should be pressed on how this will happen. If they think the Infalation Reduction Act type of solution is the answer, ask them what happened with inflation after its passage. Pictures and graphs help because math and logic are lost on most of them.

EC

[nhbob1]

The Sununu family dominate Republican politics here. Won’t have to worry about the Rino’s not supporting him.

[Sirius Lee]

Sununu is still better than any demoncrap.

[PermaRag]

For those who are reflexively “Sununu == RINO”, remember this is John E. Sununu (former congressman & Senator) and NOT Chris Sununu (former massively RINO Governor).

John E. is not bad at all — by Sununu standards — and New Hampshire is nowhere near resembling the state which sent solid conservative Bob Smith to DC many moons ago.

*This* Sununu is the best we can do in the Granite State. This one outlier (but desperately wanna-believe) poll aside, it remains to be seen whether the NH Senate race has TRULY swung in the GOP’s favor.

If Ayatollah El-Sayed wins in Michigan, which we’re told by some is impossible but in truth is likely, New Hampshire would be a very welcome and very necessary consolation prize. GOP Senate pickup opportunities this year are otherwise nil (Minnesota or Georgia pipe dreams notwithstanding).

[Hyman Roth]

I think Minnesota should be in the running as a potential flip also.

A little early to be drinking isn't it?

[nhbob1]

Agreed. And the Never-Trumpers who have not been supporting MAGA candidates will get behind him which means a good chance at an R pickup

[montag813]

Both Georgia Senators are a complete disgrace to the state.

[SunkenCiv]

• N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas Wins OK Dem Nod -- Then Goes Viral for Video So Weird It Makes AOC Look Mature [08/27/2026]
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins DSA after membership lapse of seven years [08/27/2026]
• MI: Pay for Pray: Black Pastor Paid $82,500 by Abdul El-Sayed Will Host Him at 'Clergy Round Table' as Democrat Struggles With Black Voters [08/27/2026]
  • Bonta Sues to Block USPS Mail-Ballot Rule After Supreme Court Stay [08/26/2026]
• PA Gov. Josh Shapiro and State Health Officials Caught Pushing Fake Measles Death Narrative in Lancaster County -- Officials Refuse to Cooperate as County Coroner Confirms ZERO Deaths FROM Measles [08/27/2026]
  • DNC Hoax: Two Americans dead from measles in Pennsylvania -- first deaths in state in 35 years: health department [08/25/2026]
• Tyler Robinson's Defense Team Just Threw Candace Owens Under the Bus [08/27/2026]

[Jim Noble]

Sununu can win this election if the RINO haters can swallow voting for him.

Our Mayor Pete wannabe can win this election if “true conservatives”
sit it out.

[1Old Pro]

Senate looks solid for the GOP. The House not so much.

So, endless impeachment hearings and no conviction.

[Jim Noble]

An Operation Chaos move that avoids voting for Sununu would be to switch registration on Primary Day to vote for the DSA candidate (who would probably lose in November).

[Political Junkie Too]

The LAAP-dog media is constantly pushing the narrative that the young voters are being drawn to socialism and the socialist candidates.

Absent from reporting is any reference to the explosive growth of TPUSA chapters in high school and college campuses, and the movement towards a faith-based awakening in the young.

It's as though the only youth that matters to the LAAP-dog media is the disaffected and radicalized who are rejecting our Founding principles, and are burying any follow-up of emerging electoral growth of traditional values youth movements growing out of TPUSA campus student associations.

-PJ

[11th_VA]

Thanks for the post - haven’t heard about this one