The GOP's Big Senate Seat Flip Opportunity That Is Flying Under the Radar

Understandably, a lot of national attention has been paid in recent weeks to the Senate races taking place in Michigan and Georgia, primarily because, in both races, there are Democrat nominees who have particularly acute cases of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) and who can't keep themselves from stepping in it.

In the Great Lakes State, for instance, we have the anti-America, anti-Israel, DSA-backed Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who, as I previously noted, has the social media "skills," personality, and maturity of the average tween TikTok'er. The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Sen. Gary Peters.

And in the Peach State, there is Sen. Jon Ossoff, who apparently thinks it's cute to casually smear a young cancer survivor who happens to be a top aide to President Trump by baselessly insinuating they were having an affair. The bulk of "Pee Wee" Ossoff's campaign funding, I should note, is from out of state (and from at least 39 billionaires), which, of course, is not a good look and tells us to whom he would continue to be most beholden if reelected.

While those are viewed as pickup opportunities for the GOP, there's another one where the political climate also seems ripe for a flip depending on how well the ground game is played: New Hampshire.

The primary in the Granite State isn't until September 8, but if current polling trends hold, it's shaping up to be a contest featuring Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), who is backed by unions, pro-abortion and gun control groups, versus Trump-backed former Sen. John E. Sununu, who previously held the seat for one term before Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated him in 2008 (Shaheen is retiring after this term). Before he was elected to the Senate, Sununu was a congressman for six years in the district that Pappas has represented since 2019.

As to how both are campaigning, here's how that's looked so far:

Pappas is running as a champion of the middle class, focusing on bringing down the cost of living, supporting public education and protecting Medicaid and Social Security.
[...]
"These are the only two people who have been elected as Democrats to the Senate from New Hampshire in the last half a century," Pappas told WBUR, calling the coming election "a game of inches."
[...]
For his part, Sununu is running as a traditional conservative, promising to lower taxes and cut regulations "and make government work again." He's being helped by national Republican super PACs, who have already spent millions of dollars backing his campaign.
As a former senator, whose father and brother both served as New Hampshire governors, Sununu represents something akin to political royalty in the state.

As to what a hypothetical match currently looks like between the two, fresh polling from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and 7NEWS shows a tight race, "statistically tied," but with Sununu having a slight edge:

2026 New Hampshire Senate Race

🔴 John E. Sununu: 45%
🔵 Chris Pappas: 43%

This would be a 🔵 D -> 🔴 R Flip

UNH poll | 8/20-8/24 pic.twitter.com/YgqXAfjO6E— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 26, 2026

All eyes should be on New Hampshire. John Sununu will give Granite Staters the conservative voice that we deserve. This is the most overlooked Senate race. https://t.co/8RwRHuhy4x— Rep. Sam Farrington (@SamFarringtonNH) August 27, 2026

The last hypothetical general election race polling done by UNH, which was back in June, showed Pappas ahead of Sununu by three percent.

To advance, Pappas needs to get by newcomer and self-described "peace activist" Karishma Manzur, who socialists in the state are said to be rallying behind. She has "significantly narrowed the gap," which is down to 13 percent, while 18 percent are undecided.

UNH poll | 8/20-8/24

US Senate New Hampshire 2026
🟥John E. Sununu 45%
🟦Chris Pappas 43%
——
🟦Chris Pappas 45%
🟥Scott Brown 40%
——
US Senate New Hampshire Democratic primary 2026
🟦Chris Pappas 47%
🟦Karishma Manzur 34%

Link to poll: https://t.co/9jXdDHNiWi pic.twitter.com/F700lsHpXQ— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 26, 2026

On the GOP side, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown is challenging Sununu, but seems to be going nowhere, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing Sununu ahead by 33 percent.

It’s just one poll, but if anyone can win a Senate race in New Hampshire in a Democratic-favorable year, it’s someone with the last name Sununu. https://t.co/7rwL4OZt0s— Preston Hill (@realPrestonHill) August 26, 2026

Let's go!

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