Posted on 10/11/2024 6:05:33 AM PDT by Lockbox
As my 15 yr old would say, “Like, duh, no cap”
Some elections mask the true size of his leads also.
“...polls may be masking true size of his lead...”
Gee...ya think??
We are predicted the Presidency and the Senate, but not the House. Does anyone have any info on what’s going on with the House races? We need all 3 for Trump to get stuff done in his 4 yr. time span...sigh
Voting lead too big to cheat
Size matters!
What voters have figured out, especially Republicans, is that they do not want pollsters to know what they think, and pollsters and the press lie about polls to influence the outcome of elections.
https://www.thewrap.com/every-poll-that-got-election-wrong-donald-trump/
Hint - all of them but one.
One poll consistently had an accurate snapshot of the electorate — the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll — but it was mocked by most political pundits and cable news talking heads as an outlier.
I suggest not paying attention to poll averages because they include old polls from mid to late September. Instead, I suggest paying attention to current trends. For example, there is a reason why Trump is holding events in California and New York (Madison Square Garden no less). Although he’s not likely to win those states, his campaign feels comfortable going for the so-called popular vote. Plus, he might boost the chances of down ballot Republicans in those states. These are signs of a confident campaign.
If Trump is going to win by a larger margin than “expected” it follows that we will hold the house. His coattails are going to be pretty big this time around.
Harris was actually kind of smart to stay out of the spotlight for the first month of her candidacy, letting people imagine her as president based on the fake narrative being spewed.
As she got out and spoke, more people were shocked at her empty-headedness.
Bwah hah hah hah hah!
Perfect!
Mornign consult was abysmal in 2020, their final poll had a 1 point margin of error with over 14000 Iinterviewed and still claimed Bidenwould
Win by 8. He won by 4.5, they were off by 3 And a half times the margin of error. So I would throw them out of any aggregate based on that performance.
Trumps probably at 2-3 point national lead at the moment and growing by the day, if I had to make a guess based on this data.
Trump gets that up to 5 or more and VT and MN at least will flip, possibly VA and NJ and a few others as well. I don’t know if he can get it to 5+, but I’d say right now it’s. 51/49 to 51/48 is national race in Trumps favor.
We’ll see soon enough, but it’s quite obvious to me, Trump has the momentum and anyone claiming late deciders are going to break hard for Harris is probably going to be proven very very wrong.
Trump clearly is playing for the national popular vote victory at this point, which means he and his team believe without question they have the EC victory locked up.
I do hope he pulls it off, and does so with a large margin, but even if he wins the popular vote by just a single vote, it will be delicious to shove that in these people’s faces.
If Trump does win the popular vote by a sizable margin, I would expect people literally to have mental breakdowns on the air on election night.
She has the Hillary problem.. the more she’s seen the less she’s liked.
They hoped they could hide her for 4 months but that’s just too long of a cycle to pull that off..
Yeah but neither polls nor voters determine elections. Only ballots do and I pray that there are enough good people left to ensure that the ballots reflect the will of the voters.
Amen.
As someone who is pretty familiar with statistical methods and modeling, the absolute best thing we can do is refuse to respond to polls of any kind. First, there is nothing in it for us since the polls are always used against us after being manipulated to develop results skewed to the political bent of the pollster. Why would we respond to any poll? Really! We are allowing pollsters to make money from us giving our opinion for free. And the q’s are never worded the way we would like them to be worded, besides. Do not give away your opinion to a stranger who probably hates you and wants to bury you.
Mathematically, also as others have commented, when we refuse to respond it really screws up their ability to make claims about their polls. They know nothing about people who refuse to talk, so they cannot correct for this, nor can they claim to have included this set of people in their characterization of which population of people they are claiming to have polled.
They will increasingly need to caveat their results with language that indicates they are excluding from the poll results people who refuse to respond and that they do not have any way to characterize their impact on the polling. Of course they will not do that, but the longer they go without providing that info, the more likely they will lose customers and lose influence since their polls will be shown to be structurally and intrinsicly inaccurate.
Just as the legacy media is dying, let’s use our silence to help take down the legacy pollsters who are nothing but hucksters anyway. It’s free and easy and makes them crazy with frustration. Just say, “We do not respond to polls of any kind.” These are words they dread.
Trump’s coattails were big in 2020 despite a “loss.”
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