Wanna make a small wager? The Russians have shown absolutely no capacity to break out. They do not have the manpower nor the logistics to break out - and this has been proven repeatedly in the past after other victories - Mariupol, Bakhmut, etc that the same commenters wrongly thought would lead to a quick Russian victory. Instead they have extremely weak supply lines, their own shortages of munitions, they lack trucks and tankers and spare tires and their command and control woes are as bad now as they were in the first phase of the war. There’s a big difference between amassing a huge amount of firepower to win a battle of attrition in a siege at enormous cost (just miles outside their so-called capital of Donetsk), but successfully engaging in maneuver warfare is an entirely different problem one they have shown zero capacity in.
It gets easier to make fast progress when the other side has spent pretty much all the weapons they could get their hands on, which is why Adviika is collapsing FAR FASTER than the other examples you used.
Feel free to think what you want, I’ll just keep watching the reporting and commenting on.
“they lack trucks and tankers and spare tires”
Russian supermarkets and gas stations get stocked daily.
“successfully engaging in maneuver warfare is an entirely different problem one they have shown zero capacity in”
That is the main Russian problem.
Three attackers to every one defender is the needed math to win and Russia doesn’t have the forces to win.