Plus the demographics. It’s not enough if we win Florida, Texas and Ohio when the Democrats have locked up enough states and we can’t get through their blue wall. Trump was able to do that in 2016 but I doubt we’ll be able to do it for a while.
Republicans promise things to their base that they want, and don’t even try to do it.
Democrats promise things and at least try for their side.
The only thing I’ve seen Republicans actually stand up for is the occasional 2A/anti-woke thing. They’re useless on immigration and anything related to finance. Even if they had full control of all branches of government they’d hardly spend any less than Democrats do.
They don’t really even pretend to care about economics anymore.
See others give Trump as high as 15% chance. That’s some true optimism there.