The simplest thing to do is to look at the front lines.
Russians are making small incremental gains. They are on offense. Ukes are on defense.
Winning and losing right now is strategic. How much in men and equipment are the Russians paying for their advances. How much are the Ukes paying in men and equipment to defend.
That’s less clear.
Sometime between now and July there will be some major battles as the Ukes bring forward their 40k newly trained and equipped soldiers to go on the offensive. As well, the Russians plan to bring in 400k poorly trained and equipped soldiers to confront the Uke challenges.
What happens then?
We’ll see.
I have read and seen videos of exactly that, but I also see reports opposite of that. It really is a lack of trust. I have no skin in this war other than thinking my tax dollars are being wasted where we have no national interest. Despite that, I try to remain informed, but I find it difficult to weed through propaganda coming from both sides. Should I just accept the small incremental gains the Russians are making as fact given a lack of independent validation. There’s tons of seemly detailed reports with maps meticulously updated with city block after city block of Russian advances. Neat maps, lots of detail, zero validation and credibility. When zooming out from battlefield details, the facts get no clearer or credible.
Most of Russia’s forces are concentrated in Donbas, moving the 10th to Avdiivka just further intensifies the concentration of now mostly exhausted troops.
This leaves the South with a yawning invitation ...