Posted on 01/25/2023 7:59:38 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A new study released this week by the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has concluded that America's defense industry is "not adequately prepared" for "a protracted conventional war" with an enemy with a large military like China.
The findings were the result of a war games simulation which also relied heavily on observations and statistics being gained from the Ukraine-Russia war, and Washington's ongoing military support role to Kiev.
Information from the Ukraine war led CSIS to find that the US would rapidly deplete its munitions, particularly long-range, precision-guided ones - in merely less than a week of a hot war with China in the Taiwan Strait.
“The main problem is that the U.S. defense industrial base — including the munitions industrial base — is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war," the study emphasized.
"The bottom line is the defense industrial base, in my judgment, is not prepared for the security environment that now exists," CSIS’s Seth Jones concluded in a statement to The Wall Street Journal.
As the study's main author, Jones posed the question: "How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario?" According to more from the study:
"As the war in Ukraine illustrates, a war between major powers is likely to be a protracted, industrial-style conflict that needs a robust defense industry able to produce enough munitions and other weapons systems for a protracted war if deterrence fails..."
"Given the lead time for industrial production, it would likely be too late for the defense industry to ramp up production if a war were to occur without major changes."
The report additionally pointed out that the slow-moving nature of US bureaucracy and oversight is also a fundamental aspect to the problem:
The study also said that the U.S.’s foreign military sales (FMS) take too long because they need to be initiated by the Department of State and then executed by the Department of Defense and ultimately approved by Congress. Foreign sales have benefits, including supporting the U.S. defense industry, strengthening ally relations and preventing the sale of adversary systems to other countries, the study said.
"The U.S. FMS system is not optimal for today’s competitive environment — an environment where such countries as China are building significant military capabilities and increasingly looking to sell them overseas," the study stated.
It does seem the Pentagon is taking note, and is aware that events in Ukraine have exposed US defense shortcomings, as the Biden administration chooses to get more and more involved. The New York Times reported Tuesday that the US plans to boost production of artillery ammunition by 500% over the next two years.
Whereas the US Army previously produced 14,400 155mm shells a month, the new plans could see those numbers hit over 90,000 each month.
Hence, the need for the Ukraine war, to deplete the West before China mounts its offense.
The question is when does China run out?
I’m not familiar with Nation & State.
Are they pretty reputable?
If they don’t attack us now, they never will.
RE: Are they pretty reputable?
I don’t know much about them. They publish a lot of the articles by Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge.
This particular article is sourced to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) with a link provided to the study so I would say that at least on this report, they are doing regular journalism.
China has an industrial base, that is the whole. They CAN produce weapons, lots of weapons.
You can’t talk about our depleted industrial base and not also talk about real import tariffs. Really high tariffs.
It appears to be a front/rebranding of ZeroHedge - which is rather sketchy. It is ostensibly a Conservative source - but gets a lot strangely wrong (originally mostly financial market analysis + politics).
Yes - the US is in a rather compromised position when it comes to some categories of munitions. But our empty Strategic Petroleum Reserves is likely an even bigger security threat overall...
But anything connected to ZeroHedge should always be viewed with a magnifying glass, the BS detector turned on, and grain of salt.
We’ll just order up another round from China... wait...
China’s payment to Biden are paying off.
Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000. …This is J.B. Pritzker’s first cousin, JFTR. (I don’t think I have ever stayed at a Hyatt hotel.)
155mm artillery ammo is not relevant to a China war.
The big deal items are missiles - ALCMs, Tomahawks, JASSM, Harpoon, NSM, Standard SAM, JSOW, AMRAAM, etc.
Thanks for your reply and reasoning.
I’m not very comfortable about this topic right now, but
I honestly don’t know how to judge it overall.
While we may be low on some stuff, I’m suspect we have
redundancy in other areas.
Tyler Durden is a nom de plume of several people published in Zero Hedge.
Is this Tyler guy a realm person? “Allahpundit” has disappeared as well. Just wondering. Mr. Durden, let us know....
>> [China] CAN produce weapons, lots of weapons.
Yep.
China 2023 is America 1941 — industrial might, easily converted to war materiel production.
Is Chinese war materiel inferior to our best? Perhaps, but “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Think Iranian drone swarms (not a problem for China to replicate; they probably already have). Think hypersonic shore-to-ship missiles, individually unreliable but launched in VAST quantities that render the mighty US Navy dead in the water.
Meanwhile, all WE produce are queer and tranny and feminist Tik-Tok influencers, and “entertainment”. We’re thirty trillion dollars in debt, much of it funding stupid sh!t like “green energy” (while China is using reliable coal). Our military is woke to the max but otherwise flabby and inferior. Our industrial prowess is gone.
This is NOT!!! a good time to squander in Ukraine what weapons systems we have in our inventory!
RE: Is this Tyler guy a realm person?
For me, the more important question is — Is this article and the source it references accurate. Tyler Durden is obviously a Pseudonym.
“Think hypersonic shore-to-ship missiles, individually unreliable but launched in VAST quantities that render the mighty US Navy dead in the water”.
That’s an excellent point. There is no way ships could last for very long under that kind of assault.
The US military has a good first punch but cannot go the full 15 rounds. No chance.
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