Posted on 01/23/2023 9:33:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Up until recently, I was of the common mind that, yes, Xi will invade Taiwan, and very soon. With an incredibly incompetent bozo leading America, and the U.S. military playing with itself, it does seem an optimum moment for Xi to act. And I think he will do so. But we are talking about China here. An attack could come at any moment. Or it may not be for a while. Flip a coin.
Predicting Xi’s actions is extremely problematic. China is a very complicated place, made even more complicated by the darkness of the inner workings of the CCP. Nobody knows what is going on in the upper echelons of Beijing. Guessing is the best we can do. The CCP is totally unpredictable, except that it will do what it perceives is best for itself. EXACTLY “what it perceives is best for itself,” and when, is the enigma.
So, Xi’s invasion of Taiwan, and when, are merely conjectures for Westerners. But, if he does decide to do it—whenever—he faces some issues. Will he even do it? Why or why not? Explanation:
1. Frankly, he doesn’t really need to. If you ask any person in China, they will tell you, absolutely, “Taiwan is part of China.” Why go to war over something that you recognize is already yours? And the rest of the world, practically speaking, does, too. To the best of my investigation, only 13 countries recognize Taiwan’s independence, powerhouses such as Belize, Haiti, the Marshall Islands, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Tuvalu, and a few others whom most Chinese have never heard of (most Americans, either). The Chinese people already believe Taiwan is part of their country; why go to war for it? Caveat: Not that Xi cares what his people think about anything.
2. Wars are costly and politically dangerous. This, and his need to solidify his dictatorship for life, have probably been the main holdups so far for Xi attacking Taiwan. He’s got a pretty good deal in the world now, militarily and economically, and wars are risky. What if he loses? We all assume a China steamroll, but that isn’t a given. Taiwan has been strengthening its military forces; they aren’t a soft touch. Biden says he will support Taiwan financially, Ukraine notwithstanding. And there are other factors. Japan has quietly been building up its military in the face of the Chinese Asian threat. Believe me, the Chinese and Japanese absolutely hate each other’s guts; a cursory historical survey will explain why. The Japanese just might decide to pitch in and support Taiwan, and that wouldn’t help Xi, either. China stole some islands from the Philippines; that country might want some revenge. Vietnam loves to give China the finger. India and China are constantly squabbling over a few acres in the Himalayas; what would India do? Would there be worldwide economic sanctions against China? Xi must think of just more than Taiwan and Joe Biden. A quick, decisive Chinese victory is not a slam-dunk; the war might be very expensive and lengthy. Xi has a lot of economic leverage in Asia, but it isn’t absolute any more than Russia’s in Europe.
3. Will he be able to control his generals? Right now, Xi is head of the Chinese military; it’s his major power source. In a war, he would have to delegate, or cede, some of that power to his generals. Victorious generals gain prestige and power, and power is what a communist government is all about. Can Xi control his military? Deng Xiao Ping, in 1989, mobilized 300,000 troops to crush a few drunk college students at Tiananmen Square. He could have done it with 10,000, but he didn’t trust about 290,000 of his own personnel. Power IS the name of the game in China, and as Mao said, “power comes out of the barrel of a gun.” For Xi, is giving advanced weapons to his military, thus giving them potential power, worth risking a war with Taiwan?
4. He does have to save face. But if he keeps talking about it, he’s going to have to do it. “Saving face” IS essential to Asians. Bluff is ok, but only for a season. Xi will reach a point where, if he isn’t careful, he will have to invade Taiwan or he will lose face with his people, the world, and, especially, the CCP. If that happens, he’s toast and he knows it.
The invasion of Taiwan is NOT an easy decision for Xi Jinping. The country is an irritant to him, nothing more really, and he may indeed invade. But I halfway understand why he hasn’t done so. And Joe Biden has nothing to do with it. Xi has a good thing going in the CCP now; risking it on an unnecessary invasion of Taiwan might not be in his best interest, though I am confident he would like to go down in Chinese history as the President who “re-united China.” If he invades and quickly succeeds, it will indeed solidify his position in the CCP. If he invades and ends up in a quagmire, he’s got a problem. And again, world reaction needs to be gauged, too. It’s a difficult conundrum for him.
Xi won’t do it until he is sure he will win and enhance his prestige. That will be—when?
He will watch and wait. As the USA continues to bleed itself dry his potential power will grow. I predict China will eventually take Taiwan without a war.
China has the ability to destroy Taiwan today.
But they do not have the ability to invade and occupy.
Yes, he’ll wait until he’s sure we have expended all of our weaponry and ammunition in Ukraine, drained our strategic oil reserve, and have a shortage of vital medical supplies, so we can’t assist Taiwan. It will be a short wait.
If China did invade Taiwan, do you think our news media would report it?
One thing you have to remember is that China couldn’t survive embargoes like Russia could. China Imports a lot of food and a lot of energy.
Why not invade now. JoHo already drained the petroleum reserve, demoralized our armed forces and weakened them with jabs and fired those that would not comply. They blew our wad propping up the worlds money laundromat for their own ill gotten gains and devalued the dollar so badly that if we are attacked, aint nobody is going to finance us, and after destroying the moronial and gen zzzzz generations, there is nobody who can ramp up a war machine or production. The time will never be better for china to do whatever it wants they know they will get nothing more than angry worded letters
They can win with an air tight blockade of Taiwan.
President Harris will rally the country with a series of stirring speeches. I’m sure she can build a global coalition. Or maybe not. China only has to wait for her to be President. Maybe a week or two from now.
And they usually get a lot of innocent people killed for no good reason. Enhancing the prestige of the scumbag who runs the country is not a good reason.
It is actually the CCP pushing for the war. But we have a huge international group of warships offshore. Giving them pause.
Xi vs. Taiwan and the Putin vs. Zelenskyy adversarial stances remind me of the New Age belief that our problems stem from our being egos walking around encased in skin.
Sometimes strutting.
Don’t see that in our DC.😇
I showed my students a CNN map of China the other day... it was all colored in red, including Taiwan, colored in red.
And one could say the same about the US re: China or Russia
You are correct. China can’t invade Taiwan without US & Japanese permission, or they will be ruined. The Japanese could blockade the Straits of Malacca without US assistance and cut off the 60+% of Chinese oil that comes from the Persian Gulf. Much as they dislike it, China will behave surprisingly well.
Unlike Ukraine-Russia, where US had installed Azov-ideologues into power, the push for NATO membership was steadily increasing, and a civil war was already raging in the Donbas.... Taiwan-China face none of those things.
- Taiwan-China trade continues
- a million Taiwanese or more continue to live in China
- Taiwan is a military midget and does nothing to raise its preparedness
- the more “pro-China” KMT in Taiwan just took power in most city/local governments
- China continues to raise the pressure in the Taiwan straights
So China can simply wait and keep doing what its doing.
“He will watch and wait. As the USA continues to bleed itself dry his potential power will grow. I predict China will eventually take Taiwan without a war.”
Not sure I agree with this. South Korea and Japan have really really started to arm and up their military game. Australia and New Zealand would quickly sucked in as well as the Philippines and Vietnam. Unless China could pull of a shock and awe campaign and take it before the other nations responded, it would be very very bloody and bad for business. China owning Biden may have neutralized the United States, but the rise of the Japanese and South Korean military puts it all back into play.
If anybody thinks that’ll happen, you better stock up with a ton of puts in the stock market. It’ll crash like it’s never done before.
The financial and economic repercussions of China invading Taiwan will make those of Russia’s adventure in Ukraine seem like child’s play.
Why doesn’t China just bribe all of Taiwan’s politicians ? It works here
None of our business. Let the Mandarins have Formosa.
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