I think many of us knew that Putin could not survive defeat in the Ukraine once the conflict began. How would he? Anyone who knows even a little bit about the history of Russia should understand this. He has a self-image and there is a public image for him. Both would be shattered by anything less than victory and his greed (he is insanely wealthy) would make him an easy target for the next guy.
I think many (me included) are still a bit surprised at how inept and ineffective the Russian military was from the beginning. While I never believed them to be the juggernaut that our think-tanks and intel community claimed, there is little doubt that “on paper” they should have won decisively.
There seems to be little common ground for negotiations now because Russia will not concede what they took and Ukraine will not surrender it so how could we not expect an escalation of some kind if there is a stalemate?
This is why the conflict has created the most dangerous time for the world since the Cuban Missile Crisis, but few seem aware of this or comprehend it.
The West needs to tread very carefully, but instead we have neocons running to every camera on capital hill (and in Brussels) fanning the flames.
I think many (me included) are still a bit surprised at how inept and ineffective the Russian military was from the beginning.
At the start of the war, their military was 10% of it’s 1989 size from the Fulda gap days. NATO and DC lied when they kept saying they were a menace to Europe. They wanted to sell gas and things and have an economy.... and get shown the slightest amount of respect.
We finally showed them that talking to us is meaningless, and will only get you lied to as Merkel confirmed.
So here we are.