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Kosovo Again!
Geopolitical Futures ^ | 12/13/2022 | George Friedman

Posted on 12/13/2022 9:44:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind

There have been skirmishes between armed ethnic Serb protesters and Kosovo police. The reason is that a while ago, Kosovo ordered that drivers surrender Serbian-issued license plates and replace them with Kosovo plates. On Dec. 10, Serbs living in northern Kosovo started erecting barricades. Kosovo residents confronted them, and Kosovo police blocked the border checkpoints. A traffic jam ensued, and so did a small shootout, including the use of a stun grenade. The shooting has died down but the threats have mounted.

A shootout over license plates may seem excessive, but this is the Balkans. It is a relatively small area with multiple nationalities, and the political borders don’t match the ethnic borders. In the 1990s, there was a brutal civil war among those ethnic groups. For example, Serbs are Christians and Bosniaks are Muslims. Serbs and Bosnians live in proximity to each other. The civil war that broke out included concentration camps, where some estimate that 100,000 Bosnians died – a number denied by the Serbians. However, no one doubts it was a blood bath.

The fighting threatened to extend to Kosovo, south of Serbia. The Kosovars are ethnic Albanians and Muslims living in an area that Serbia claims. When Serbian forces began to enter Kosovo, U.S. and European governments, aware of the slaughter in Bosnia, were concerned that another blood bath would take place in Kosovo. NATO aircraft, primarily British and American, carried out airstrikes to force the Serbians to leave. The bombing was extended to Serbia, and included strikes against the capital, Belgrade. Those strikes caused substantial casualties on Serbian citizens.

The United States wanted to reach a cease-fire with the Serbians. The president of Serbia refused, partly out of anger over the bombing of Belgrade, and partly because he was afraid that he would face charges in The Hague – which he ultimately did. Unable to secure Serbia’s capitulation, the airstrikes continued.

The U.S. reached out to the Russians, who had close relations with the Serbians. The Russians persuaded them to accept a cease-fire. In return, the Russians expected to be treated as equal occupiers of Serbia and Kosovo, imposing the cease-fire on all regions as NATO’s equal. The Americans deny that they agreed to this with the Russians. The Russians say they had no reason to negotiate with NATO except for this. Russian troops arrived in Kosovo’s airport to serve as peacekeepers. They were surrounded by NATO troops and forced to leave. This event had a great deal of influence on the rise of Vladimir Putin and his distrust of the United States. It convinced him that the U.S. wanted to crush Russia, and he rose to the presidency on a promise not to allow Russia to be treated with contempt in the future.

So the Kosovars and Serbians are fighting over license plates and whatnot. What would appear trivial to others is not trivial here. In the Balkans, memories are long and unforgiving. The Balkans affect everything around them. World War I started in Bosnia. But for our time, the conclusion of the Kosovo war bred a deep Russian distrust of the United States.

Now there is a war involving Russia and the United States. It is not going well for Russia thus far. When fighting a war, forcing the enemy to divert his attention is critical, particularly when there is – at best for Russia – a stalemate. They have looked for other ways to distract the Ukrainians, but it is the Americans that must be distracted.

Serbia is close to Russia, as it has been for a long time. The United States has a deep history in the region. Another conflict between Serbia and Kosovo would not by itself change the course of the Ukrainian war, but it may, at low cost, cause the Americans to lose some focus if they were to divert forces to protect Kosovo, a sort of obligation going back to the 1990s. At any rate, Russia has little to lose and Serbia is always ready to tangle with Kosovo.

We began with a little gunplay between Serbia and Kosovo over matters too trivial to be believed. Consider that the reason for the gunfight had nothing to do with trivial matters, but with trying to recreate the Kosovo war. If the Russians wanted a low-cost, low-risk diversion, they had many chips to call in with Serbia. Of course, there have been clashes before this, but there are always clashes. The question is not how they start but what they lead to. So watching the Serbia-Kosovo border may be worthwhile.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: balkans; kosovo; russia; serbia; tensions; yugoslavia
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1 posted on 12/13/2022 9:44:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
"but it may, at low cost, cause the Americans to lose some focus if they were to divert forces to protect Kosovo, a sort of obligation going back to the 1990s"

No. We have no "obligation", sort of or otherwise. Not our circus. Not our monkeys.
2 posted on 12/13/2022 9:50:34 AM PST by armydoc
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To: SeekAndFind
The civil war that broke out included concentration camps, where some estimate that 100,000 Bosnians died – a number denied by the Serbians.

Srebrenica Massacre


3 posted on 12/13/2022 9:53:42 AM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees)
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To: SeekAndFind

“and then sir, I remembered... they were able to light off WWI down in the Balkans. Maybe we can go there to get that NATO/Russia war started that we have been unable to light off!”


4 posted on 12/13/2022 9:56:24 AM PST by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
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To: SeekAndFind

NATO wants to bomb Serbia again. One, they very are horny for some NATO plane bomb dropping, some missions.... SOMETHING!
Two, they hope bombing Serbia will maybe be a way to provoke Russia into the shooting war we want so badly.


5 posted on 12/13/2022 9:59:01 AM PST by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
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To: tlozo
And you care so much about muzzies, why?

Remember when some people did some things to some people?


6 posted on 12/13/2022 9:59:11 AM PST by Sirius Lee (They intend to murder us. Prep if you want to live and live like you are prepping for eternal life)
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To: DesertRhino

From the article...

“It is not going well for Russia thus far.”

This is false and backwards. This situation in Serbia is another belligerent attempt to open another front by the World Police.


7 posted on 12/13/2022 10:00:29 AM PST by Chunga85 (An arrogant govt combined with an ignorant population is a recipe for disaster.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Could we stay the hell out this time?

We can be world cop or we can have a free country. Not both.

8 posted on 12/13/2022 10:02:53 AM PST by Salman (It's not a slippery slope if it was part of the program all along. )
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To: armydoc

It is a relatively small area with multiple nationalities, and the political borders don’t match the ethnic borders.

~~~

Not so small.
Belgrade is in Serbia, and Serbia is about the size if Illinois. Serejevo is in Bosnia, which is probably about the size of Georgia (US)


9 posted on 12/13/2022 10:05:35 AM PST by z3n (Kakistocracy)
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To: SeekAndFind

I met a Serbian man about my age in the check out line at the grocery store.

In talking, he said his grandfather had fought in ethnic wars, his father had fought in ethnic wars, he had fought in ethnic wars... and he came here so his son wouldn’t have to fight in ethnic wars.


10 posted on 12/13/2022 10:05:41 AM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (Fraud vitiates everything. )
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To: SeekAndFind
It looks like the current Islamic assault on Europe started a long time before the current waves sailed over from the burned-out wreckage of Libya.

Albanians began the march a long time ago.

11 posted on 12/13/2022 10:06:13 AM PST by who_would_fardels_bear (What is left around which to circle the wagons?)
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To: Sirius Lee
And you care so much about muzzies, why?

Yeah, I'm funny that way, don't believe innocent civilians should be massacred. Crazy right

12 posted on 12/13/2022 10:08:56 AM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees)
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To: armydoc

> Not our circus. Not our monkeys. <

Yep. It’s a European problem. But for some reason (probably arrogance) the United States feels that it must be involved in everything, everywhere.

The old Roman and British empires behaved the same way, and was a major reason why those empires collapsed.


13 posted on 12/13/2022 10:11:01 AM PST by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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To: SeekAndFind

One thing is certain, they will put up with a lot less crap from the government than Americans will.


14 posted on 12/13/2022 10:11:20 AM PST by Scott from the Left Coast (Make Orwell Fiction Again)
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To: Chunga85
This is false and backwards. This situation in Serbia is another belligerent attempt to open another front by the World Police.

"Lie like an American neocon"

They make me tired.

15 posted on 12/13/2022 10:13:21 AM PST by kiryandil (put yer vote in the box, chump. HARHARHARHAR)
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To: tlozo

Yeah, unless they live in the Donbass and opt out of the 2014 coup. Then you are fine pounding them with artillery for 8 years, ethnic cleansing where ever they can be found, and massing for a final attack last spring till the Russians ruined the plan.


16 posted on 12/13/2022 10:13:50 AM PST by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
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To: Leaning Right

We are usually behind causing all the trouble because of our desire for never ending war and world dominence.


17 posted on 12/13/2022 10:18:18 AM PST by dforest
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To: SeekAndFind

So this oldie is making its way up the charts again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9r0zm4surY


18 posted on 12/13/2022 10:18:19 AM PST by Gil4 (And the trees are all kept equal by hatchet, ax and saw)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

The guy and his brother who installed seamless gutters on my old house came from Serbia. He left with his brother when he was a little kid. First they moved to Germany. Where they learned metal fabrication. Now they have a very successful company in NH installing gutters and standing seam metal roofing.


19 posted on 12/13/2022 10:18:36 AM PST by woodbutcher1963
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To: DesertRhino
Yeah, unless they live in the Donbass and opt out of the 2014 coup. Then you are fine pounding them with artillery for 8 years

Oh, Ukrainian army was executing civilians in Donbas or was it a shooting war that was started, funded and supported by Putin.


20 posted on 12/13/2022 10:20:28 AM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees)
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