It appears to me that Russia is baiting Ukraine to take territory and then face the task of trying to take a city Russia holds, such as Kherson. If Ukaine wishes to oust Russia from Kherson it will have to mass forces necessary to conduct the block to block fighting that Russia did when it captured Mariupol. Remember that?
Even if this is not a Russian plan (i.e., baiting the Ukrainians) the outcome will be the same. Ukraine will have to conduct a frontal assault on the city of Kherson and, in order to do this, will have to mass troops and equipment that will be easy targets for Russian artillery, missiles and bombs. Ukraine has no military power to counter what Russia can unleash. So, if your panties are in a knot over “Russia losing territory”, I suggest you take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down.
Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure. Why? This is essential in order to conduct coordinated maneuver warfare, which is what Russia is expected to unleash once its forces are properly manned and in position.
Important to remember that all of the military action on the ground in Ukraine will be a sideshow compared to the economic warfare that will wrack Europe. The United States and Europe got a big bucket of cold water poured over their heads today with OPEC+’s announcement that they will cut production by two million barrels of oil. No matter how much lipstick Biden and Blinken try to put on this pig, OPEC+’s message to the west is clear–fuck off! If foreigners really believed that Russia was getting its ass handed to it, do you think the OPEC nations would stick their neck out and adopt a policy that helps Russia? I don’t.
The Russian army wasn't capable of maneuver warfare even before this war began war. They don't train for it, they don't have the low-level unit leadership, and it's not even really part of their doctrine.
No idea where you got that from.
Well said.
I may not always agree with everything you say, but thank you for saying it. You eloquently present a different perspective, a view that is necessary to perceive and consider when digesting the facts required to formulate an accurate reality.
How many times will you cut & paste this one, Comrade?
I rather doubt “helps Russia” is much of a concern for most OPEC members. They are more cut throat than that. Russia exporting less gas and oil is great for them! Plain and simple, they have become dependent as a meth head on meth on the export of high $ petroleum products. The SA Royal family, for example, would have long ago been deposed, but, they keep the population fat, “happy”, and as with most dependencies (in this case a sub-dependency), rather useless. Which is why Filipinos, Indonesians, etc., are imported to do most of the real work.
But, when it comes to their own population, each sustained crest of high oil or gas prices makes the Saudis’ task of getting though the next moderate prices period, say, $60 / barrel, a bit tougher. It’s like taxes to the gov’t. I rather doubt Saudi Arabia can hold it’s society together for long with oil at $70 / barrel. The same may hold for Russia, which runs nearly half it’s gov’t (including its military) off petro profits. Ditto for $90 oil if production falls considerably.
OPEC has a dilemna: Pushing the supply of oil down and the price up may very well cause the global recession to accelerate. In fact, what is causing this recession to form? More than anything else, it is a global energy shortage and resulting very high prices & inflation across the board! This is a very big problem, especially for countries that are net energy importers. I’m guessing that in 2022 oil prices above $70 / barrel, maybe even $60 / barrel (and gas prices over $5 / Million btu) are economy killers for heavy importers. (Gov’t debt can also be problematic.) The situation is a bit different for fossil fuel independent or exporting countries.
This creates an ultimately untenable situation, which the heavy importers will eventually resolve by either economically failing / falling behind, producing their own economical energy, or finding reasonable price new outside sources.
Now, flip that back to SA or Russia...