Those are the results for the 2022 *primary* (in which the top 4 advance to November), and not the much more important *special* election in which there are only 3 candidates.
Those special election results are, currently:
Peltola: 38%
Palin: 32%
Begich: 29%
Another 18% is obviously needed for Palin to reach 50% overall and win, which means she needs to take about 62% of the “second choices” of the Begich voters (18/29). That should certainly be doable though it’s hardly automatic, but Alaska isn’t going to let us know for another 2 weeks or so.
Assuming Palin does win the special election, I wonder if Begich pulls out of the November rematch in order to do what’s best for the party and NOT split the Republican vote again?
Look at the numbers: 98,000 votes for Republicans and 48,000 for the Democrat. Yet the Democrat could win. This is why Demonrats can’t like ranked voting, they understand the system: divide and conquer