The intelligence community was not getting ahead of Putin, they were getting ahead of themselves and made excuses for it afterwards. When I was growing up in the post Vietnam 1970s, the news called out the intelligence community for stupid mistakes like this. They still did until now.
Now the news is actively covering for the intelligence community's screw ups.
P.S.
Russia is still invading Ukraine no matter how badly anyone spins it.
“Russia is still invading Ukraine no matter how badly anyone spins it.”
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As more and more people are realizing, as we can see here - if one’s spin is determined by what’s (allowed to be) reported they’re going, that person will have a misled and deceitfully arrived at spin.
The next question then is: “so what?”, which is best answered rationally, unemotionally and with reason.
“..Russia is still invading Ukraine no matter how badly anyone spins it. ..”
They have retreated from large areas, but continuing the fight in others. Is that “invading?” I don’t know - just asking.