Will the SVO [invasion of Ukraine] end in 2024? There are four options.
We talked with sources in the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Kremlin and the SVR to understand what awaits us at the front in 2024. Based on the information received, we can identify four options for the development of events .
The first is a truce at the front. We wrote in detail why Vladimir Putin and part of his circle want negotiations and a truce, and also about the fact that many in our elites are not against holding such negotiations before the presidential elections.
“If we finish the SVO, we will have the opportunity to rebuild the army. And this will give us the opportunity to achieve more in Ukraine later and be prepared for a possible military clash with NATO. Plus, it will be easier for Vladimir Vladimirovich to implement his plans, including regarding demobilization ,” a source among the military admitted to us. At the same time, he refused to give forecasts as to whether such plans would be realized.
The second option is that the West will stop helping Ukraine or sharply reduce the level of assistance with weapons and money. In this case, we can make serious progress at the front. For example, to fulfill the tasks of the president and take control of the entire territory of the DPR. Unfortunately, it was not possible to do this before the end of the year.
By the way, in the event of such a development of events, a new wave of mobilization is inevitable. It is difficult to say how many people will be drafted into the army, but we will most likely talk about the figure of 300-500 thousand people. We should not forget about the large-scale mobilization Ukraine is planning . And how dangerous it is for us.
The third option is that the West will seriously increase support for Ukraine, and its troops will go on the offensive. “The option, unfortunately, is also real. Especially if we continue to mindlessly shell Ukraine, destroy dummies of airplanes there , smear them and create a terrible picture, because of which the West is already giving the enemy more weapons. Plus, such mistakes increase the threat that our assets in the West will be taken away and missiles, tanks and planes will be bought for them for the Ukrainians,” the intelligence interlocutor complained.
If such a scenario is realized, in his opinion, the SVO may end next year, “but not at all as we would like.” Plus, domestic oligarchs really don't want this option - they are afraid of losing their money forever.
The fourth option is that nothing much will change at the front, there will be mobilization, but not too large-scale (“250 thousand, no more,” according to the military), and we will raise the question of whether the SVO will end at the end of 2024.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3366
The fifth option is that Putin will be replaced by his boyars. 