Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Best trolling by a Russian so far:
A Muscovite gives a unique view on how the war is impacting Russia.
https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1717150031969476640
24 sec video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFPHtXvHRSE but not exactly this bridge...
Will the SVO [invasion of Ukraine] end in 2024? There are four options.
We talked with sources in the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Kremlin and the SVR to understand what awaits us at the front in 2024. Based on the information received, we can identify four options for the development of events .
The first is a truce at the front. We wrote in detail why Vladimir Putin and part of his circle want negotiations and a truce, and also about the fact that many in our elites are not against holding such negotiations before the presidential elections.
“If we finish the SVO, we will have the opportunity to rebuild the army. And this will give us the opportunity to achieve more in Ukraine later and be prepared for a possible military clash with NATO. Plus, it will be easier for Vladimir Vladimirovich to implement his plans, including regarding demobilization ,” a source among the military admitted to us. At the same time, he refused to give forecasts as to whether such plans would be realized.
The second option is that the West will stop helping Ukraine or sharply reduce the level of assistance with weapons and money. In this case, we can make serious progress at the front. For example, to fulfill the tasks of the president and take control of the entire territory of the DPR. Unfortunately, it was not possible to do this before the end of the year.
By the way, in the event of such a development of events, a new wave of mobilization is inevitable. It is difficult to say how many people will be drafted into the army, but we will most likely talk about the figure of 300-500 thousand people. We should not forget about the large-scale mobilization Ukraine is planning . And how dangerous it is for us.
The third option is that the West will seriously increase support for Ukraine, and its troops will go on the offensive. “The option, unfortunately, is also real. Especially if we continue to mindlessly shell Ukraine, destroy dummies of airplanes there , smear them and create a terrible picture, because of which the West is already giving the enemy more weapons. Plus, such mistakes increase the threat that our assets in the West will be taken away and missiles, tanks and planes will be bought for them for the Ukrainians,” the intelligence interlocutor complained.
If such a scenario is realized, in his opinion, the SVO may end next year, “but not at all as we would like.” Plus, domestic oligarchs really don't want this option - they are afraid of losing their money forever.
The fourth option is that nothing much will change at the front, there will be mobilization, but not too large-scale (“250 thousand, no more,” according to the military), and we will raise the question of whether the SVO will end at the end of 2024.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3366
The fifth option is that Putin will be replaced by his boyars. 
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his annual New Year's address on December 31 to concretize Russian ideological priorities for 2024, notably omitting any mentions of the war in Ukraine and instead focusing on setting ideological conditions for the upcoming year. In stark contrast to last year's New Year's address, wherein Putin addressed the nation at the headquarters of the Southern Military District surrounded by uniformed military personnel and talked explicitly about Russia's goals in Ukraine, Putin's 2023 address shows him standing alone against the backdrop of the Kremlin, without a single mention of the “special military operation.”[1] Putin instead opted to very briefly thank Russian military personnel for fighting for “truth and justice,” and otherwise focused on emphasizing Russian national unity.[2] Putin also stated that 2024 will be the “Year of the Family,” emphasizing that the Russian family is the backbone of “the multinational people of Russia,” and that Russia is “one big country, one big family.”
Putin has in recent weeks frequently discussed Russia's continued maximalist intentions for the war in Ukraine, and Putin likely sought to set more domestically-oriented ideological conditions during his New Year's speech.[3] Putin's invocation of 2024 as the “Year of the Family,” as well as his emphasis on Russian “multinationalism,” further serve to clearly delineate the Kremlin's ideological line going into 2024, orienting domestic policy around the preservation of traditional Russian family values and the protection of Russian multinationalism, which both fit into Putin's wider ideology of a Russian World (Russkiy Mir) inclusive of groups within and beyond Russia.[4] ISW has recently assessed that Putin is trying to re-establish the conception of the Russian World as the backbone of Russian domestic and foreign policy, and the 2023 New Year's address identifies Russian families and Russian multinationalism as pillars of this concretized Russian World.[5] The Kremlin's conceptions of the Russian World will undoubtedly impact Russian administrative, bureaucratic, and sociocultural priorities in occupied Ukraine, as well as military goals on the battlefield in the year to come.
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2023
A party in Moscow has caused OUTRAGE in the Kremlin. After videos of the event were circulated on Social Media a Soldier Fighting in Ukraine posted a STINGING ATTACK on the authorities and identified PUTIN'S GOD DAUGHTER as one of the attendees. As a direct result one partygoer was IMPRISONED and the party organiser is now facing a 1 BILLION RUBLE fine. In this video I provide more details of the event and the issues this has raised in Russia regarding freedom of speech.
The scale of Nastya Ivleeva’s problems has not yet been fully understood by the influencer herself. After her sensational “naked party,” both she and the famous party participants had to apologize. The biggest laughing stock in this whole story was Philip Kirkorov, who made excuses to the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov right in front of the television cameras.
According to our information, the story about Ivleeva’s naked party reached the very top. Vladimir Vladimirovich was shown some footage, noting that some representatives of show business did not care about the decision to ban LGBT people.
The President was in no mood that day and gave a short order: “Punish.” On the same day, Ivleeva’s apology and promise of a generous donation to charity appeared. The flywheel has started spinning and now the stars are practically competing to see who will apologize more correctly and beautifully. Naturally, everyone unofficially points to Ivleeva - they say, she is the instigator and organizer. And so we passed by.
Ivleeva is depressed. Major advertisers are refusing it. Obviously, it will get worse, although it will not lose most of its audience. But maybe money. Evil tongues say that Ivleeva was offered to publicly donate a large sum to the needs of the Northern Military District. They even name the amount - a billion rubles. The blogger is considering the option of leaving the country. But in the meantime, security forces have already begun searches in this case.
Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia's “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West. Putin responded to a Russian serviceman's question about Western aid to Ukraine during a meeting at a military hospital in Moscow Oblast on January 1, stating that Russia's issue is not necessarily that the West is aiding Ukraine, but rather that the West is Russia's “enemy.”[1] Putin added that “Ukraine by itself is not an enemy for [Russia],” but that Western-based actors “who want to destroy Russian statehood” and achieve the “strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield” are Russia's enemies. Putin claimed that Western elites are trying to break Russia into five parts and are trying to do so using Ukraine, but that the situation on the frontlines is changing and that Russia will “deal with the [West] faster” than the West can deal with Russia on the battlefields in Ukraine. Putin added that the problem is not in Western aid deliveries to Ukraine and noted that Ukraine has already been “completely destroyed,” that there is “nothing left” of the country, and that it “exists only on handouts.”
Putin implied that Russia is fighting an existential war against the West in Ukraine and noted that Western rhetoric has recently refocused on how to “quickly end the conflict.” This phrasing implies that Putin sees a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and the West – not a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Putin added that Russia also wants to end the Russia-West conflict but only on the Kremlin's terms and emphasized that Russia will not give up its positions. Putin does not view Ukraine as an independent actor and is thus portraying his full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a confrontation between Russian and West – deliberately misrepresenting the reality that Russia invaded Ukraine to destroy Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Putin's emphasis on changing narratives in the West may indicate that he will perceive and/or frame any wavering in Western support for Ukraine and any Ukrainian defeats on the battlefield as a Russian victory in this supposed Russian-Western confrontation.
Putin's framing of his war in Ukraine as a Russian struggle against the West – and not Ukraine – indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting information conditions aimed at convincing the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations. Putin is likely deliberately and falsely framing Ukraine as pawn without agency in the Russia-West conflict to mask his expansionist and maximalist goals of establishing full effective Russian control of Ukraine. Putin's January 1 discussion of negotiations refers to his intent to negotiate solely with the West about Ukraine's future within the Russian sphere of influence and only about Western abandonment of Ukraine. It does not signal that Putin is interested in negotiating with Ukraine as an autonomous actor. Putin previously adopted a similar line when issuing two ultimatums to the United States and NATO in December 2021, which were intended to force the West to recognize Russia's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by surrendering essential elements of Ukraine's sovereignty in the name of de-escalating the conflict between the West and Russia that Putin was inflaming.[2] Any Western commitment to negotiations about Ukraine's future that bypass Ukraine will signal to Russia that it can impose its will upon countries that it deems to be in its sphere of influence – even countries beyond Ukraine, and potentially including Finland and Moldova, about which various Russian actors have begun setting informational conditions for future campaigns.[3]
Putin may be expanding his war aims in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West in an effort to set conditions for permanent Russian military buildup and to justify high battlefield sacrifices. Russia gained almost no meaningful ground in 2023 at a high manpower cost, despite Putin's January 1 absurd claims that he only orders Russian servicemen to launch offensives that will not generate significant casualties.[4] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), however, stated on December 30 that “the average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine has risen by almost 300 during the course of 2023” and that Russian casualties could rise to over half a million by the end of 2024.[5] A declassified US intelligence assessment shared with Congress on December 12 stated that Russian forces have lost 315,000 personnel since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[6] Such high casualties for small territorial gains are likely prompting Putin to present a strong and ideological justification to continue the prolonged war of choice on which he has launched Russia. Ukraine needs no such contorted justifications for the high losses and suffering that Putin's invasion is inflicting on its people, even when Ukraine's military operations do not produce the desired results. The war really is existential for Ukraine as it is not for Russia.
Putin notably concluded his observations about the Russian-West conflict by telling one wounded serviceman in the hospital that the serviceman did not get wounded for Russia to give up everything and surrender. Putin also addressed several domestic concerns about the lack of housing and compensations to servicemen who have received injuries on the battlefield, thereby attempting to posture himself as an empathetic and involved wartime leader even while seemingly raising the stakes to support his demands for increasing sacrifices by his people. Putin's statements likely suggest that he is preparing a long-term justification to keep forces mobilized and engaged in combat for the perpetual defense of Russia's sovereignty against the West.
The Turkish government announced on January 2 that it will not allow the United Kingdom (UK) to transport two mine hunting ships to Ukraine via the Turkish Straits “as long as the war continues.” [31] Turkey cited Article 19 of the Montreux Convention Regulating the Regime of the Turkish Straits, which stipulates that “vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not...pass through the Straits.”[32] Turkey has used the Montreux Convention to deny access to Russian warships wishing to pass through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits since February 28, 2022.[33] UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps announced on December 11 that the UK transferred two Sandown-class minehunter vessels to Ukraine as part of a plan that predated Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[34]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-2-2024
https://twitter.com/Cyberdefensecom/status/1742377516398965099
NATO will give Ukraine missiles that will reach Moscow?
A source in the US State Department said this. The American official himself (!) contacted us after a massive strike by Russian troops on Kiev and stated the following:
“I know that you communicate with many representatives of the Russian elite, including the military. Tell them that if they do not stop striking civilian targets in Ukraine (to our objection that we at least aim at military targets, we just do n’t always hit , the source laughed - ed.), then the Ukrainians will receive missiles that They will reach Moscow, St. Petersburg, and many other places. And there will be no restrictions on their use.”
The interlocutor also noted that “President Putin will not achieve any success in the negotiations (we wrote about their possibility - ed.) with such an approach.”
Now, to be honest, we don't know whether to rejoice at targeted strikes against the enemy or worry about Moscow. Plus, our country began to have problems with weapons. Unfortunately, we confirm the fact that a rocket launched at Ukraine fell in the Voronezh region. According to the latest data, 8 people died.
God bless Russia!
Kremlin-affiliated mouthpieces may be setting information conditions to blame the West for a potential future conflict in the Arctic. A prominent Russian milblogger, whom the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) have recently rewarded for service to the Russian Armed Forces and whose channel has recently fixated on the Arctic region, amplified a post wherein another milblogger responded to comments from the Danish Foreign Ministry about how Denmark's chairmanship of the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) will focus on Arctic security after reports from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service and NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept listed Russian activity in the region as a possible cause of future regional instability.[24] The milblogger claimed that despite Danish statements about Denmark's hopes to keep the Arctic a region of low tension, Denmark views Russia as the main threat in the Arctic, suggesting that the milblogger views Denmark's response to Russian actions in the Arctic as unnecessary and inconsistent with other Danish signaling. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on December 21, 2023, that Russia deployed forces to the Arctic not as a demonstration of military force but to ensure Russian economic development in the region, whereas Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have increasingly blamed Western countries for preparing Arctic countries for a confrontation against Russia and claimed that Russia has been forced into responding by reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) in Russian's northwest to counter supposed threats from Finland and other NATO states.[25] Recent Kremlin and MoD statements and the Russian MoD-affiliated milblogger’s post may be part of Kremlin efforts to set information conditions for Russia to blame Denmark and other Western Arctic countries for any future conflicts with Russia in the Arctic. These narratives are in line with Putin's declaration on January 2 that the West is Russia‘s “enemy” and his further implication that the war in Ukraine is an existential war for Russia against the West.[26]
Efforts driven by Kremlin mouthpieces to set such information conditions may be permeating the larger Russian information space. Another prominent Russian milblogger, who has previously amplified Kremlin narratives about Russia's maximalist goals of imperial reconquest in Ukraine, amplified a post claiming that the next regional “flare up” will be the Baltics and Nordic countries.[27] The post vaguely claimed that an unspecified actor, possibly the West, is preparing the Baltic and Nordic peoples for a confrontation with Russia and that the Baltic and Nordic countries have lacked sovereignty for a long time - echoing Kremlin narratives about how states that are not great powers - like Ukraine - do not have full sovereignty.[28] These informational lines are disturbingly similar to the justifications the Kremlin used to invade Ukraine in 2022 and to continue the invasion. There are no indications that Russia will seek conflict with NATO in the very near future, but Moscow began running similar information operations in Ukraine many years before Russian invasions in 2014 and 2022.
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2024
The amendments signed by Lukashenko exempt the outgoing president and members of his family from punishment for any crimes they committed during his rule. Also, the law does not allow any procedural actions against the ex-head of the Belarusian state and deprivation of his freedom.
As follows from the document, the property, assets and correspondence of the former President of Belarus will remain inviolable.
The document signed by Lukashenko also states that a citizen of at least 40 years of age who has permanently resided in the country for at least 20 years before the elections and does not have a foreign residence permit can become the President of Belarus.
At the end of December 2022, Lukashenko signed a law stating that even after the termination of the presidential powers, he will be able to be a member of the Senate of Belarus for life. It is among the functions of the chairman of the Council of the Republic that additionally includes the exercise of the powers of the president in the event that the post of head of state is vacant again.
https://www.currenttime.tv/a/lukashenko-popravki-v-konstitutsiyu/32759714.html
Nice try.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
