And with 7% inflation, the Taylor Rule model suggests a Fed Funds Target rate of … 17.84%. Bear in mind that the current target rate is 0.25%.
Not sustainable. Jimmy Carter on steroids.
Wages on the low service sector end sky-rocketed and yet they are actually earning less dollar for dollar. Exactly what many said would happen.
I lived the Carter years and the Reagan years. Bought my first home with an interest of 13% and thought that was a great rate at the time.
Basically it is now costing the average person 20% more to maintain their life-styles.
The biggest difference I see is the ready availability of jobs and no workforce. During the Carter years, there we no jobs. This dysfunction warns of something seriously wrong in the economy and it is not a wage issue.
Second question: Look at the linked Table A-1. Dec. 2020 vs 2021. Notice anything odd? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
The drop in labor participation when jobs are available and some wages have increased is strange.
If I were to guess, many low-level workers learned to live with less under lockdowns and also discovered the cornucopia of benefits the poor receive (even single earner families) such as EITC, Medicaid, health insurance for kids, foodstamps, etc. They have simply made the rational choice to have one earner stay home and look after the kids, the low wages of the one earner being subsidized by welfare. So you have the government subsidizing low-wage jobs and flooding the US with illegals to fill up the slack.
Almost nothing explains the frantic and ultmately successful attempts to pull a coup against Trump than the sharp increase in the percentage of labor's share of the economy. Almost the entire elite recoiled in horror as Trump's policies limited their ability to game the economy in their favor.
Okay, I had to look at this a couple of times. Here is what I noticed as ODD. In the top portion of the chart there is a line item called “Persons who currently want a job” To me that sounds like they are UNEMPLOYEED since wanting a job would/should be considered as being part of the civilian labor force. Yet for calculation of unemployment rate, these people who are “wanting” are REMOVED. For seasonally adjusted Dec21 ONLY, I would say an honest assessment would be ((Civilian Labor Force / (Unemployed + Those Want a Job)) In other words unemployment is closer to 7.4% not the highly publicized 3.9%
The biggest difference I see is the ready availability of jobs and no workforce. During the Carter years, there we no jobs. This dysfunction warns of something seriously wrong in the economy and it is not a wage issue.
Good point and it is odd. Perhaps those who claim there is a conspiracy for a “great reset” in the West are correct? I don’t know any more but we sure seem to be in a much different situation now vs only two years ago.
I still hear business owners complain that people are not returning to work because of the various programs paying them almost the same to stay at home. I am still seeing signs to be patient at businesses because they have fewer employees.
There are still help wanted signs all over the place in my city - pretty much every single service or hospitality industry has signs up.
The road ahead looks pretty bumpy indeed BUT at the same time the wealthy globalist elites are growing their wealth in comparison to the average Joe or Jane. It almost seems like it is designed because our government continues to do things that are inexplicable that are hurting 95% of us.
The disconnect between what we all see with our own eyes and what they tell us is happening has never been larger and it continues to grow. I am not sure how the media will lie or spin their way out of this during the election cycle and the number of resignations on the left side of the aisle points to a major upheaval ahead.
No workforce? You actually believe that???? There is a wage shortage not a labor shortage.
The Market Ticker has been saying that there are a million plus people not working and not on welfare.
Death’s other than covid maybe.
I am seeing issues myself. A capital project just doubled in materials costs IN THREE DAYS.
We are going to fall off a cliff, and before someone says “midterms” that won’t matter. Voting after you step off the edge of the grand canyon doesn’t do much good.