Posted on 05/11/2021 7:14:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The nation of Taiwan faces the increasing likelihood of invasion by Mainland China and may have to face it alone. Taiwan must therefore take steps on its own to deter an invasion and to demonstrate the intention to resist it as long as possible if it comes.
In 2019, demonstrators in Hong Kong carried American and British flags as well as at least one poster reading, "We need Second Amendment." Beijing long ago foreclosed that option for Hong Kong, but Taiwan may still have time to adopt a firearms policy acceptable to its people and government, while contributing to its overall defense. It could develop a capability common to small nations facing larger enemies -- a government-supported citizens' militia. A numerous, well-equipped militia would demonstrate that any invasion will involve the whole population in the nation's defense, and that such an attack would be a costly endeavor.
President Biden still has not stated clearly that the United States will defend Taiwan if the island is attacked. The deterrent value of the policy of "strategic ambiguity" is of little value when Beijing's policy is increasingly unambiguous and there is the possibility that American forces might not be able to intervene effectively even if they tried to do so. War games conducted by the U.S. military have indicated that China might prevail in a regional contest against the United States if it happens in the next few years, and Admiral Phillip Davidson has warned that war could come as soon as six to ten years from now. Plans to revise U.S. military doctrine and tactics offer some hope, but the proposed changes are unlikely to be in place within the time-frame envisioned by Admiral Davidson.
Taiwan must be prepared to stand alone. Its regular military and reserve forces appear strong on paper,
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Biden has to repay the ChiComs somehow for their help.
Taiwan will need a Swiss militia system, with one important addition: ABSOLUTELY NO record keeping of who has how many guns, to eliminate an invader seizing the records and demanding gun turn-ins.
Someone has been reading my posts.
I’ve said for several years - the Taiwanese need to copy the Swiss. Send every army conscript home with his rifle, 100 rounds of ammo, and a locker
Bring them back once a year for a day of training, updates and BBQ.
This invasion only started being presented as something bound to happen since the election of Biden, as if the CCP/media is trying to groom the US to shrug it off when it happens.
In six to ten years the Three Gorges Dam could be strongly reinforced to resist attacks, but hardening it might be very expensive. The Chinese might also only do maintenance on the dam to prevent deterioration. But another heavy year of rainfall could also cause lots of problems and undermine the dam further. Then strikes against it might be sufficient to collapse it.
Like all Asian governments, Taiwan is far too authoritarian in thinking to ever consider such a thing. Best they could do is - since they have mandatory military service - is retain every adult male as an active and armed member of their reserves until age 50.
But I don't think the will to fight China is there among Taiwan's political elites. They seem to see reunification as inevitable - just like our RINOs see collectivism as inevitable. They pay lip service to freedom, but Taiwanese corporations want access to China's markets just as badly as our own do.
When the moment comes, I don't expect any military clash at all. It will be the signing of some kind of Hong Kong-like agreement which everyone will know China intends to break at their convenience and no one will especially care. The West will save face from taking no action because Taiwan "voluntarily" reunified and China will save itself the risk of military embarrassment.
You seem to know Taiwan and sadly, your analysis has the ring of truth.
There are plenty of available small arms out in the sea somewhere. They were bound for Yemen.
You guys keep pushing the idea that Taiwan is going to fight China.
I seriously doubt that. Think Austria 1938.
Taiwan needs remotely controlled mines. They need to seed them all along the inner island chain now, as later they won’t be able to. They can bring all boat traffic in whatever area they want to a complete stop. China imports something like 60% of its food and oil. They would run out of gas in a few weeks. Mines are cheap and can be made amazingly hard to sweep. Any amount of intelligence can be built in, such that they only sink certain types of ships or, whatever parameters you want.
Also, Taiwan needs to develop drones that can be deployed in swarms. Again, cheap and effective. A militia is fine, but it will only be used in limited circumstances and at great cost. Logistics are the problem. Food. Fuel. Medical supplies.
That's where the money is. Sell out your public, for profit. Everubody gets to keep the same address, so "on paper" you haven't lost your country or anything.
And check out the China constitution - it protects freedom of religion and freedom of the press, so on paper, is as free as the US ever was.
Taiwan would never attack the 3 Gorges dam. In fact, if the National Security Bureau (Taiwan intelligence) found out of a third-party plan to attack the 3 Gorges dam, they would most probably inform the Chinese government.
Why?
If the 3 Gorges was to fail, it would kill approximately 100 million Chinese and affect hundreds of millions more. There are approximately 400 million Chinese downstream from 3 Gorges.
If Taiwan attacked the dam, or it seemed (true or not) that Taiwan attacked the dam, Taipei would be immediately nuked and the world wouldn’t do a damn thing about it.
In fact, if China wanted some sort of casus belli against Taiwan, all they need to do is steal (or reverse design) a Hsiung Feng cruise missile that Taiwan uses, bringing it a couple hundred miles from the dam, launch it (and ensure there’s a second missile for identification purposes and some dead Taiwanese tourists to serve as the ‘culprits’), and have it strike the dam. It would have no effect since the dam is hardened against such single attacks, but would easily catalyze a reason to go and attack Taiwan.
Kind of like how a bomb in an apartment building in Moscow led to the Second Chechen war …
But a proper (successful) attack by Taiwan on 3 Gorges = nuclear strike on Taipei. Guaranteed.
Consequently, not only would Taiwan never attack the dam, but they would actively stop anyone they knew off attacking it (if it would somehow be blamed on them).
Taiwan could become China’s Viet Nam.
Exactly. Two decades ago when I joined FR the talk on the topic then was how China didn’t even have a landing vehicle they could use to cross the strait, and how they would be unable to even deliver a single soldier. Time has a funny way of changing things.
Taiwan could definitely bloody China’s nose, but it wouldn’t stop them. Without external help success would be a forlorn hope, and (talking about forlorn hope) no Democrat president would help Taiwan and outside Trump I genuinely think any modern Republican one would as well.
Reunification of the Han nation 202X = Reunification of the German nation 1938.
Taiwan isn’t any more interested in fighting their brothers than Austria was in 1938.
If Taiwan attacked the dam, it would only be in the context of an ongoing invasion. I doubt that China would nuke Taipei as there are a few very high value objectives that might be destroyed in such a strike.
All Americans and the people of Taiwan can rely on Joe Biden... to totally f*%k up everything. Joe has a knack. Where he keeps it, is beyond me.
Conventional communist military tactics are very dependent on their timetable. So the counter to this is anything that can disrupt that timetable.
For example, to get their forces to Taiwan, they will likely require a huge amount of military and civilian shipping across the Strait. Tens or hundreds of thousands of cheap, free floating, expendable sea mines would severely cripple such a flotilla, if released at the right time.
On the down side, such massive invasions, including our own D-Day, are willing to suffer 90% losses *if* a beachhead can be achieved. Pretty harsh logic.
Next, communists are big believers in fifth column attacks. So the mainland will likely have smuggled in thousands of such people. The counter to this is a large counterintelligence organization with the authority to hunt down, expose and kill such infiltrators, assassins and saboteurs.
The mainland has prepositioned an enormous number of missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan. Very difficult to deal with.
For its part, Taiwan needs to sabotage as much of the mainland as possible.
Yep, all told it will be “ugly on a stick.”
Their existing 2.5 million reserves are more than adequate.
Even 1 million men armed with rifles and dispersed throughout the island would present the Chicoms with a formidable deterrent.
Remember, 70,000 Nazis in Iraq gave the US Army hell.
Nobody wants to take on 1 million men with rifles. Nobody.
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