[Socon-Econ]

We are well on the way, nationally, to having 25% more deaths of all causes (note all causes) March-March for 65+ people than in a normal, pre Covid year.
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We can expect the death rate to trend upward as the huge bulge in baby boomers ages, even without the COVID virus. The issue is whether recent deaths after the virus appeared pushed deaths higher than what would be expected from the trend line before the virus. My educated guess is that it has not.

[BohDaThone]

Death total increased most years in the 2010s as the population Aged BUT the increase was modest. Never more than 3% year over year So anything like 15% year over year , let alone 25 as in the OP, (I think that will be a bit high) is fantastically out of line.

Doesn’t prove the best way to deal with it , but the all causes death total Shows that it isn’t just the flu.

[Owen]

Not bad.

You meant death total, not death rate, but your point is there will be more 65+ deaths because there will be more 65+ people.

About 1.7 million normal 65+ deaths occur each year. We’re going to add about 400K to that for this year.

10,000 people turn 65 each day. 3.65 million/yr. So yes, the 65+ cohort is growing.

Total 65+ people in the US — about 53 million, growing about 3.2%/yr (which includes deaths and turning 65)

A normal year’s deaths would be 1.7 million or 3.1% of the total.

So would the no Covid death total rise each year. Yes. Would the Covid death total also rise? One would think so. The virus has more targets to hit.

That would be the problem with saying more older people means the death total from Covid would be less than a 25% death increase. Covid would have more targets to hit, and generate more deaths.