Posted on 12/25/2020 7:34:04 AM PST by Kaslin
Like Sherlock Holmes' dog that didn't bark in the night, so goes in politics: Uncharacteristic behavior can turn out to be crucially significant -- uncharacteristic behavior in politics being defined as one demographic group unexpectedly trending one way when most of the electorate trends the other.
Such behavior was the subject of The New York Times' graphic team's report headlined "Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue."
Readers scrolling down through the story encounter maps of metropolitan Chicago, Miami, Orlando, Houston, San Antonio, Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, San Jose and Phoenix, plus the Rio Grande Valley, with Latino and Asian neighborhoods clearly marked. Red arrows show election precincts that have shifted right since the 2016 election. Blue arrows sometimes show increased Democratic margins in areas with mostly affluent white voters.
The story highlights that the big Trump increases in the Miami area are people of Cuban descent -- a trend so large and so pivotal in giving Trump Florida's 29 electoral votes that it was noticed on election night. But what was considered an exception turns out to have been a particularly vivid example of the rule.
Trump still didn't carry most heavily Hispanic areas. But he got big percentage increases in almost all of them, from Los Angeles to the Rio Grande Valley to New York's upper Manhattan and the Bronx.
And, though it was not noticed at all right after the election, Trump also made gains among Asians -- Vietnamese in Orange County, California; people of Chinese descent in Silicon Valley and Brooklyn; South Asians and Arabs in Chicago's northern suburbs.
Almost nothing in preelection media coverage anticipated this countercyclical trend. One reason is that preelection polls typically understated Trump's support. Another is that subgroups in statewide polls have a big margin of error.
A third reason is that the mostly liberal press corps was confident that "people of color" were permanently alienated by Donald Trump's (usually unenumerated) "racist" remarks and his policies to restrict immigration.
Apparently, many voters of recent immigrant stock disagree. A large and increasing number apparently share Trump's view that heavy and often-illegal low-skill immigration has held down wages of people like them. Or they were convinced of that as immigration levels fell and low-credential workers' wages and incomes increased in 2017, 2018, 2019 and the first two months of 2020.
It may also be that new citizens don't see the United States as a nation whose central heritage is "systemic racism," as The New York Times' 1619 Project has insisted. Or that they haven't encountered discrimination and bigotry against "people of color" as their central and defining experience.
Fear of socialism, inspired by some Democratic candidates' calls for "Medicare for All" and the Green New Deal, may have played a role. More than most Americans, many Hispanic and Asian voters know how socialist regimes in Latin America and East Asia have restricted liberty and stifled economic growth. Asians especially may have watched China's clampdowns on Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
Governments' responses to the two major events of 2020 -- the COVID-19 lockdowns and the "mostly peaceful" Black Lives Matter protests -- may have differently impacted immigrants and the upscale whites in nearby affluent neighborhoods.
Gentry liberals have mostly been able to work from home offices or move to their summer homes, and they are mostly insulated against the sharply increased number of post-Memorial Day homicides and violent attacks.
Voters in heavy immigrant neighborhoods, in contrast, have been more likely to lose their jobs, to have their kids barred from school and to be at risk of violent crimes. Democratic governors' and mayors' lockdowns, Democratic teacher unions' demands for school closings and Democratic politicians' calls for defunding the police may not sound like such good ideas to them.
Almost nothing in preelection media coverage anticipated this countercyclical trend. One reason is that preelection polls typically understated Trump's support. Another is that subgroups in statewide polls have a big margin of error.
A third reason is that the mostly liberal press corps was confident that "people of color" were permanently alienated by Donald Trump's (usually unenumerated) "racist" remarks and his policies to restrict immigration.
Apparently, many voters of recent immigrant stock disagree. A large and increasing number apparently share Trump's view that heavy and often-illegal low-skill immigration has held down wages of people like them. Or they were convinced of that as immigration levels fell and low-credential workers' wages and incomes increased in 2017, 2018, 2019 and the first two months of 2020.
It may also be that new citizens don't see the United States as a nation whose central heritage is "systemic racism," as The New York Times' 1619 Project has insisted. Or that they haven't encountered discrimination and bigotry against "people of color" as their central and defining experience.
Fear of socialism, inspired by some Democratic candidates' calls for "Medicare for All" and the Green New Deal, may have played a role. More than most Americans, many Hispanic and Asian voters know how socialist regimes in Latin America and East Asia have restricted liberty and stifled economic growth. Asians especially may have watched China's clampdowns on Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
Governments' responses to the two major events of 2020 -- the COVID-19 lockdowns and the "mostly peaceful" Black Lives Matter protests -- may have differently impacted immigrants and the upscale whites in nearby affluent neighborhoods.
Gentry liberals have mostly been able to work from home offices or move to their summer homes, and they are mostly insulated against the sharply increased number of post-Memorial Day homicides and violent attacks.
Voters in heavy immigrant neighborhoods, in contrast, have been more likely to lose their jobs, to have their kids barred from school and to be at risk of violent crimes. Democratic governors' and mayors' lockdowns, Democratic teacher unions' demands for school closings and Democratic politicians' calls for defunding the police may not sound like such good ideas to them.
I had made my citizenship on June 12 1977 (/which was Flag Day) at Junction City, Kansas, when we were stationed at Fort Riley, KS. The celebration was held on June 14, at the Eisenhower Center in Abilene, KS before we went to Germany, my home country for the last tour
I say import South African farmers with 3+ kids. They’re about to lose everything. Put them in Nevada and Col.
Democrats have been registering voters for decades and not cleaning the registrations.
Teh majority of the “fraud” was registered voters who supposedly voted, but never showed up at the polls or mailed-in a ballot......the vote was performed on their behalf.
This has been happening in “safe” precincts in Philadelphia since 2012 when several “safe” precincts voted 100% for Obama and 0% for Romney despite very light turnout.
Democrats have figured out that there is no legal authority verifying elections in this nation anymore.
So Trump made record gains amongst blacks, hispanics, asians and we’re supposed to believe he lost by 7 million votes. Riiight. /s
Democrats have figured out that there is no legal authority verifying elections in this nation anymore.
Exactly, once the envelopes have been open, they are legal, we need to do the same darn thing
Register every single dead person, dog, cat, cow, blade of grass in our strongholds and win these elections
Barone drones on about stats, ignoring the fraud, useless.
He lost ground with whites, when whites are the majority, whatever gains with minorities, don’t really matter.
He lost white males by 5, females by 10
Pandering to blacks didn’t help him much either. Nobody can out pander the dems when it comes to black voters. He should have ran his 2016 campaign of all Americans, people likes that message, black, white, hispanic, whatever
America First would have been his winning message as well and kept to it.
Your message is correct, but the outcome would be the same.
The Rat steal plan is just to wait until they see how many votes are needed - stop counting for no apparent reason - and the siphon in enough votes to win by about 1% so it looks like a squeaker.
They did it in 2018 in California - remember all the Republican Congressional turnovers in SoCal - and then went national with it.
Trump ran the best campaign ever seen by a Republican President. The convention presentation was superb - even the Left admitted it as they griped. Anyone remember the so-called Democrat “convention”? Nothing more then a Zoom meeting from Joe’s basement.
We either stop this incredible outrage now or we are no longer free: the bureaucrats rule us with phony “elections”, and “elect” whoever they want, not us.
Why do people just make up statistics that can be verified?
White men - Trump won 61-38 (slightly worse than 2016)
White women - Trump won 55-44 (improvement from 2016)
Black men - Biden 79-19 (huge move right)
Black women - Biden 90-9
Hispanic Men - Biden 59-36 (big shift right)
Hispanic women - Biden 69-30
Why would you lie and make your absurd claims about White men and White women?
The article’s basic lie is that the country voted blue.
Republicans cleaned up in Congress and states and held the senate.
While I’m not certain they outright stole the election from Trump, it’s very plausible. Certainly their legal/ illegal vote by mail schemes stole the election.
There is no doubt in my mind that the election was stolen from President Trump
Just want to point out two things, one good one not good enough.
1 The shifts for Trump in these demographics make it unlikely he lost the swing states.
2. Improvement among minorities is great but 80-20 Democrat is still a killer.
So you actually believe the stats?
Sad.
In Florida, Trump split South American voters 50/50 and won 59% of Cuban Americans regardless of whether they were immigrants or native born. Biden won 66% of Puerto Rican voters in Florida, however (Puerto Rican population in Orlando area is huge).
Wisconsin and Michigan have very different demographics with different immigrant groups than the others.
“While I’m not certain they outright stole the election from Trump, it’s very plausible. Certainly their legal/ illegal vote by mail schemes stole the election.”
What does this mean? How can you say you “cannot be certain” they outright stole the election” and then say “the illegal/legal vote by mail schemes stole the election”
Most Boers will be going to Australia.
Yes, I know Puerto Rican’s are not immigrants, just pointing out that they were quite solidly behind Biden in Florida.
We have been rigging the elections in all their countries for decades.
Now, we see we have been rigging the vote here for many years.
We can see by South American history, they'll go right, far right and they'll swing back left. So, like most Americans, they are not very principled or dogmatic.
But, we can certainly see by who is out in the streets burning down the cities who our biggest problems are-all those people seem to be malcontented and brainwashed whites, Jewish academia and elites, blacks and mixed race who identify as back.
The BLM riots were very enlightening. If we had leadership, there is real opportunity there for allyship.
So Townhall and Michael Barron are pretending to extract useful voting data from The Steal? Sickening people and an irreverent publication.
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