COVID-19 Update - 10/31/2020

My own workup | 10/31/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 227

As of 10/30/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁶
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities fell by 58 cases from the previous day, to come in at 982
yesterday. That was actually an 8.75% rise from the same day the previous
week.

We had three days this week with over 1,000 Fatalities, and missed a fourth
by 18. When cases started to climb a few weeks ago, this is what I thought
might happen. When the second wave hit, fatalities rose within about
16 days. Here we are again. New cases are a lot higher than normal, and
Fatalities are up also, but the Fatalities are not as strong as the cases
so we are doing better.

New Cases rose by 12,563 from the day before, to come in at 103,530
yesterday. That was an 21.47% increase from the same day the week before.

This was a record. Two weeks back our highest day was 78k and change.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities rose by 250 cases from the previous day, to come in at 7,458
yesterday. That was a 12.43% increase from the same day the previous week.

New Cases fell off by 2,734 cases from the day before, to come in at 571,876
yesterday. This was an 14.85% increase from the same day the week before.

This was not a new global record, but it was only down by the amount
mentioned in the previous paragraph. When you get down to the Chart
that graphs the daily number from march to the present, please take note
of the size of increase over the last three weeks, each week higher than
the last. The margins are very large. If we do that again this next
week, the global figures will go over 600,000 easily.

I wouldn't look at this as a cause for alarm. The numbers are interesting
to me, but the actualy percentage of the populace that is aflicted, is
troublesome, but not enought to be very alarmed over.

New Case Records, both Globally and Domestically

The United States and the Global Community as a while saw new records again
yesterday for declared cases. The Global Community Declared 574,610 New
Cases, and the United Stated Declared 90,967.

Testing was very elevated for the last two days. Two days before yesterday
they claimed over 4.7 million tests in one day. We normally to 1.0 to 1.2
million per day. The day before yesterday they claimed 1.47 million, still
a very high number, a record if hot for the 4.7 million number.
Yesterday returned to more like normal.

Global Scene New Milestones

The Global Scene declared it's 46 millionth New Case yesterday.

Several weeks back it was taking four days to gain one more million. We
are not down to doing it in one day. We hit 45 million the day before
yesterday and 46 million yesterday, Globally.

United States Milestones Yesterday

The United States saw its 6 millionth Recovery.
The United States also hit its 3 millionth Active Case, record territory.

Reminder

All charts can be seen in their original size by right clicking and selecting
view. You can see more detail.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 12,563 cases yesterday.

That 103,530 is a new record for one day. We'll be keeping an eye on that
but I don't think it's something that we need to get overly worked up over.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It fell off again yesterday.

The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily now.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose by 61,381 cases yesterday. That is out of character for
growth in this area. Way high...

Serious/Critical cases rose by 180, and have grown by nearly 3,000 over the
the last 31 days.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This area has been looking a little better day by day, for around a month now.

We dropped about 6.00% in the Active Case slice of the pie in the last month,
but don't let that fool you, our number has been growing too much, but the
global number has been growing more than ours.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point with this one.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Not liking this are much right now. Disappointing...

The Active Cases are rising day by day. Using this metric we are experiencing
a new wave at this time. About all we can do is wait to see how severe it
becomes. Severe is probably the worng word here, but I think you know what
I mean.

I reference it as the third wave, but Fauci has let it be known, he still thinks
we're on the first wave. He may be right. I'm not sure what the scientific
requirements are to declare a wave over. If it settles down, that seems like
an end to me, and the chart looks for all the world like a third wave is in full
swing now.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing fell back in line, although heavy, after two days of very high
numbers. That 4.7 million tests on Wednesday was very strange.

You can see the percentages of positives yourself there, but be sure to
check out the single-day. Not liking that.

As I said, we will need to watch the pathway here from now until after
the third, to see just how much they have been gaming the situation, if
indeed they have been.

On the day the testing went fuzz-ball on us (over 4.7 million), the
single-day percentage dropped out. You can see how it did a dip ta de
doodle there.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line is rising.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Illinois and Texas, took the top spots again yesterday.

Illinois has been showing some pretty big case numbers.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declarations fell off by 2,742 yesterday.

The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again, dipping below 75.00% now.

Please take a look back up the column to see it's changes recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by 311,910 cases, in accordance with the large number
of New Cases declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up also by
over just over 1,175 cases. Not good.

83,437 is a big number for this metric. What it means is that it is more
likely that there will be more fatalities out of these compromised cases.

We want that number to be as small as possible.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The middle/important number fell off yesterday.

The United States larger than normal number affects that, bringing it
lower than it otherwise would be.

Global and domestic numbers reamined very high yesterday. It was not a
record day in the Global Community, our our number was a new record for us.

Check out the progression of those blue columns.

The blue line depicts our New Cases, is still trending up steadily.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Global Active Cases are growing considerably. The distortion on the right
of those graphs is so out of line with the rest of the charts.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Ug!

The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but it
is drifting up now, and so is Norway.

The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

The Netherlands... yikes.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States has taken the top spots off and on recently. Yesterday
it took them both again.

Look at that margin it won the top spot in the New Cases catergory by.

There was a big spread in the fatalities number also.

Remember, we are much larger than most other nations. We con't compare
to the European Union here, so small nations like Germany (comparitively)
don't turn out numbers as large as our own, and so on down the line.

India has moderated it's numbers fairly well recently.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We wound up at 74.838% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. As I
suspected, we dropped below the 75.00% level here.

Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up 304,482 cases to come in at 11,583,115 yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases rose. The total there is a large number.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Fatalities were off here a abit, but yesterday the global community saw
higher fatalities.

The other areas rose also, it being a Wednesday. It's that time of the week.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

That 982 Fatalities yesterday was larger than I would like to have
seen. We had three days with over 1,000 Fatalities this week, and just
missed another one yesterday.

This amounts to a few hundred more than we have been seeing. Compared to
our populace at large, these numbers are very tiny. We don't like to
see it, but this isn't something to be overly disturbed by.

That next to the last week was higher than recent normal. Curious how
this week will play out overall.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 10,000 cases,
but they have far less of them still Active. Over 30% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

The rise each day compared to the same day the previous week, is very
large right now. If we see this sort of thing next week, we will be
deep into the 600k range.

As I recall back during the second wave, I warned about something like
that at the 300k level. Then the virus took a holiday and failed to
continue to show that same elevated growth. In the next week or two
perhaps we'll see the same sort of thing. And of course, those who
think this was an effort to get Trump, will see proof in that.

It may just be the way this virus works. It goes in spurts very so
often. If you look at the first wave, then the second, and then the
third, they seem spaced out at a certain symetrical interval.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We remained in 19th place yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[lightman]

And now for something completely different....a weekend update from the PA Department of Health!

PA Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 31, data as of midnight October 30-31

LTC deaths = 5807 (increase of 7)
Total deaths = 8812 (increase of 28)

Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65.9%

New LTC deaths seem a bit low but is more believable than the numbers from a week ago.

Nevertheless: 4 MAGA Trump rallies in PA today and Tommie the Commie did not attempt to stop them!

[inpajamas]

Does all this data really mean anything. Do you trust all the people behind the numbers?

[lightman]

I do not trust the PA data as it comes from an agency headed by a self-mutilated she/he/it.

PA has one of the highest percentages of LTC deaths vs. total deaths in the nation—definitely within the NE-US.

I post the numbers, such as they are, every day to expose this gericide.

Gentle pressure, relentlessly applied!

[House Atreides]

Well, I guess the “good news” out of this uptick is that Moderna and AstraZeneca will likely have more of their American vaccine trial participants develop “symptomatic” Covid-19 cases quicker. Out of Moderna’s 30,000 trial participants they need to have 53 of the volunteers develop SYMPTOMATIC Covid-19 before Moderna can do their interim efficacy report to the FDA. That efficacy report is needed to get an Emergency Use Authorization to distribute their vaccine. 53 might seem like an easy number to hit but it’s actually not given how many cases are asymptomatIc.

[DoughtyOne]

Actually, I like what you pointed out there.

That does seem to be encouraging.

I don’t put it past some nations spreading infection on
purpose also. In Europe and the United States we’re seeing
elevated cases right now like we did at the end of may, early
June.

Was that relaxing the lockdown? Is the rise now related to
weather? Is someone walking about with a dirty cannister
painting public places?

Make you wonder sometimes.

[Paul R.]

I believe that if one looks at new cases per 100k people, over the last couple weeks, the correlation with areas that have had mostly cooler than average weather is moderately good. There are obvious other factors that can “gang up” with or without cool weather being involved, but in my region (IL, KY, MO, TN, IN) the weather correlation is pretty strong.

I don’t mean to say this in a “talking down” sort of way, but I also don’t know how else to put it:

Basically, COVID-19 is a very infectious viral respiratory disease with transmission behavior similar to a very infectious cold virus, behaving like a very infectious viral respiratory disease with transmission behavior similar to a very infectious cold virus.

Some might invoke Occam’s Razor. Others might say, it is what it is...

[2aProtectsTheRest]

I trust no data reported by the media. I understand that the data reported by health departments and the CDC is all preliminary and subject to revision as corrections become available, but it's the best data we have. We should focus less on the precise numbers (which are impossible to completely establish due to fog of war, government worker incompetence, etc.) and focus more on the policies and decisions from state and local governments that contribute to unnecessary deaths. Policies like forcing nursing homes to accept known-infected COVID-19 patients. The complete failure of state and local governments to provide direct, concrete assistance and guidance to caregivers for the elderly to help ensure their protection. How failed policies like shutdowns/lockdowns merely inspired panic among the population and drove masses of people into Costco and Walmart where COVID-19 spread like wildfire.

Focus on the WHY. The exact numbers will take years to establish and even then it will be estimates with some amount of uncertainty. Whether we're at 240,000 or 280,000 or 220,000 deaths isn't important. What's important is that we could be at half that number if the governors weren't completely incompetent in their responses and if the policies implemented didn't run precisely counter to all known good science on how COVID-19 spreads and how to control it.

[Paul R.]

That’s 53 of the control subjects (those receiving a placebo), right?

Different question: We have data for fatalities and serious / critical cases, but what’s the actual latest data regarding asymptomatic vs. “mild symptoms”* vs. “moderate symptoms”** vs. serious/critical vs. fatal?

*On the level of a mild cold, loss of taste or smell, etc., but 10% or less impairment of one’s normal activities / productivity.

**On the level of a bad cold, puts one in bed for one or more days, etc. Maybe even to include “One’s activities significantly but not seriously slowed for over a week”. Something like the “bad cold” my daughter and I had a few weeks ago, and the “chest cold” part of it is still hanging on to me — but my immediate family and I all tested negative for CV-19. It really knocked me on my rear for a couple days, but I never thought I was in need of a hospital or ER visit.

Have the various categories’ percentages changed much since the “1st wave”?

[Paul R.]

The complete failure of state and local governments to provide direct, concrete assistance and guidance to caregivers for the elderly to help ensure their protection.

You can add the CDC to that list, too, IMO.

Those caregivers include the many taking care of vulnerable individuals in private home settings: Sitters, family members, etc. I have an almost 90 y/o Mom (in fairly good health for a 90 y/o) to care for, with some assistance from sitters. I have 5 N95's (no valve) for me or my wife going to the grocery, etc., but those N95s are getting long in the tooth, and getting more quality N95 masks has been impossible. (Which reminds me to check again, but I'm not holding my breath, so to speak.) In April I could still understand this. But, not anymore!

This is just one example of the rampant utter incompetence we are seeing.

[House Atreides]

“That’s 53 of the control subjects (those receiving a placebo), right?”
*****************************************************
Yes, as you know, of Moderna’s trial participants, half received the new vaccine and half received placebos. Moderna and the FDA will look at the 53 (or more) who develop symptomatic COVID-19 to see how many received the placebo and how many received the actual vaccine. That assessment will determine the efficacy of the vaccine. I think the FDA is looking for vaccines to prevent at least 50% of what would otherwise be an individual COVID-19 case. So, yes, of the 53 symptomatic cases the great bulk should be from the 15,000 participants who received the placebo.

[Paul R.]

Noted - thanks for the added info. I was not sure what efficacy was actually being looked for, but, that all makes sense.