He will win if more people show up and vote for him than the other guy.
Even if polls are accurate for the time they are taken, they can be made to be wrong if certain people decide to get off the couch and vote on election day. That has happened before...and it can happen again. Even with very high turnout numbers in 2016, there were still many millions of people who would have voted Republican if they had shown up to the polls who simply did not do so...the same for the other side. If these millions that would have voted for Republican who aren’t inclined to show up but ultimately decide to do so, solid victory - the vote of a lazy and unmotivated voter counts just as much as an enthusiastic voter. Most everyone knows people like this...get them to get off the couch and go vote.
Turnout for 2016 was 55.5% of the voting age population. It’s been 112 years since we had even 65%. The highest we have had for a long time was 2008 with 57.1%. The last time we have cracked 60% was 1968.
Voting turnout for 2020 would have been a good indicator for how many people are really worried about possible unrest and uncertain times coming. The covid/huge vote by mail/early voting probably messed that up.
The terrible thing is that if we would have higher turnout through the years I doubt things would be better now. I suspect we would actually be farther down the slope at this point.
Freegards
Really? Voting makes a difference?