Posted on 10/28/2020 10:12:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Psst. Trump will win the popular vote, too.
Blacks will be down minimum of 3m, “Yut”s will be down 1m.
That’s the old PV.
Read this new piece from USC Dornsife and youll find some familiar themes on social desirability bias. Thats the same problem that Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly has sought to address in his surveys of battleground states, which he claims is why his data is reliably rosier for Trump much, much rosier in some cases than the rest of the polling industrys. Cahalys baseline assumption is that there are many more Trump supporters out there than the commentariat realizes but that theyre being overlooked in polling for complicated reasons. Some may be embarrassed about their support for Trump and dont want to admit it to another person. Some may fear harassment by neighbors or other antagonistic forces (reasonably or not) if their support for Trump became known. Some may simply not pick up the phone when a pollster calls, or give an insincere answer just to mess with the person on the line. Cahalys methods aim to remove social desirability bias from the equation, to peer through the haze of some MAGA fans reluctance to admit their support and see the true picture of the electorate.
USCs trying to do the same thing. How do you get an accurate sense of how people are planning to vote if some of them are unwilling to be honest about their intentions? You ask them about other peoples intentions. Not Will you vote for Trump? but Do you think your friends and neighbors are voting for Trump? According to USC, that type of social-circle question similar to Trafalgars approach shows Trump faring better than most polls indicate. And not just better, but well enough to pull another rabbit out of the hat in the electoral college next Tuesday.
From our previous research on social judgments, we learned that people seem to know their immediate social circles quite well. Their answers about the distribution of income, health status even the relationship satisfaction of their friends, family and acquaintances were often in the right ballpark. And when we averaged the data from their responses across a large national sample, it provided a surprisingly accurate picture of the overall population
[I]n all five of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters own intentions. These five elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives.
In both the U.S. elections, the social-circle question predicted national and state level results better than the own intention question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social-circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trumps electoral college victory
When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, its looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden. We should note that our poll was not designed for state-level predictions, and in some states we have very few participants. Even so, in 2016 it predicted that Trump would win the electoral vote.
USC is also asking people which candidate they think will win their home state and those results show an even steeper Biden electoral-college loss than the social circle results do. Whats especially noteworthy about this is that USC has been conducting its own daily panel poll on the presidential race and has had Sleepy Joe ahead the entire time comfortably. Today they have him up 11 points nationally, indicating a Democratic bloodbath.
What theyre doing here with the experimental questions, in other words, is giving readers reason to believe that their own horse-race poll is wildly, embarrassingly wrong.
Its possible that the traditional polls are right and the social circle data is wrong, of course. Both parties this year seem convinced that Trump will do better than his current numbers, righties because theyre sure that Trump fans are a silent majority despite the fact that hes never had a job approval average north of 50 percent and lefties because they have hardcore electoral PTSD from 2016 that makes them fear Trump fans are perennially underestimated. But neither of those things is necessarily true. USC speculates that the pandemic might be throwing off peoples assessments of how their friends intend to vote for the simple reason that were all spending less time around each other now. Our information about the day-to-day happenings of our social circle is poorer, therefore our knowledge of their political inclinations is weaker. And our opportunities to influence each other on how to vote are fewer. Your MAGA buddy may have twisted your arm in 2016. Nowadays hes busy trying not to get COVID and stay afloat financially, just like everyone else.
Theres an obvious question about social desirability bias too. If its true that its distorting the traditional polls and producing artificially encouraging numbers for Biden, whether because people are embarrassed to tell pollsters the truth or because they fear being punished somehow if their community knew their support for Trump, why are we seeing Biden faring better than Clinton in blood-red states? People who live in Montana, say, shouldnt have reason to feel shy about telling some anonymous polling apparatchik that theyre MAGA and proud, yet Trumps leading Biden there right now by single digits. He won the state by 20 four years ago.
Experimental but accurate? Perhaps, but time will be a better judge, in my opinion. But either way I think they are right that President Trump will be reelected.
I am no fan of Guy Benson. He is a 2016 Never Trumper, LOVES Meghan McStain and talks out of both sides of his mouth.
He wrote an article supporting the appointment of Meghan McCain to fill her father’s Senate seat.
Sorry, I don’t care for Guy Benson.
RE: Psst. Trump will win the popular vote, too.
Hey Professor, The last time (2016), California and New York combined gave Hillary the popular vote. You seem to be telling us that these two states won’t be a factor in the popular vote this year?
www.primarymodel.com
RE: I am no fan of Guy Benson. He is a 2016 Never Trumper,
Regardless pf how you feel about him, he is REFERRING to pollsters and QUOTING THEM. At least look at what the pollsters are saying, you can ignore Benson’s own take on this if you wish.
That’s nice.
Keep fighting like we’re the third monkey on the ramp to Noah’s Ark
and brother, it’s starting to rain.
That, is a good one.
After having to deal with Pelosi and Schiff PDJT deserves a 50 state win.
What do you think about the latest ABC News/Wash Post poll that has Biden up +17 over Trump in Wisconsin and +7 in Mich?
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3898889/posts
How can they predict these numbers and keep any semblance of credibility by next week, or do they know something we’re not being told?
Well, I’m in PA. Seeing more Biden signs than there were Clinton signs, though still very few.
Nevertheless, I can’t see the voters backing a candidate who would deliberately steer this country into a ditch.
Oh man, Im stealing that one. Still laughing.
I think President Trump will get more votes in California than he did in 2016. He will not win California but his percentage will increase. Probably the same for New York.
I believe the author is correct. If Trump wins Florida, then all he needs to win the EC is just one of the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota, assuming he carries all the other states he won in 2016 outside of those states. I believe he’ll win at least one of those four states.
So Trump Winning Florida is the key here, which substantially improves Trumps path to victory.
Trump - 322
What do you think about the latest ABC News/Wash Post poll that has Biden up +17 over Trump in Wisconsin and +7 in Mich?
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3898889/posts
How can they predict these numbers and keep any semblance of credibility by next week, or do they know something were not being told?
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Really, some of the media polls are producing numbers that border on comedy.
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