Posted on 10/27/2020 6:24:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Biden is the least inspiring candidate in at last a century, while President Trump has an extraordinarily enthusiastic base that is, if possible, much larger than it was in 2016. Still, the polls have been practically unanimous: Biden will win in a landslide. The polls predicted the same for Hillary in 2016, so we’re suspicious, but the confluence of awful things that’s been 2020 still makes Trump supporters just a little nervous. However, two election analysts are predicting that Trump will beat the pants and double masks off Joe Biden.
Matthew Tyrmand is a numbers guy. He got his start working for almost ten years on Wall Street as a hedge fund portfolio manager who analyzed and traded healthcare and telecommunications stocks. He then became a business consultant. After that, he worked for American Transparency, which has dedicated itself to putting all government spending in one place, information you can find at Open The Books (a fascinating website).
In 2016, Tyrmand looked at the numbers and concluded that Trump would get 311 Electoral College votes, a prediction that was off only by 5 (Trump got 306 EC votes). This time around, Tyrmand thinks that Trump will get between 342 and 386 EC votes:
[A]ll the conventional swing states (NH PA MI WI NV AZ) will go red.
Some of the states purported to be swing states are not even in play this cycle in my view as they are so firmly in the “stop burning down the cities” camp (FL OH GA NC) that they will be defended easily.
States that should not have been in play as they have been consistently dem the last 30-40 years are slam dunk GOP red now (MN NM)
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Nor is Tyrmand alone in seeing good things. Inan Dogan, an industrial engineer who holds a Ph.D. in economics, claims that the “Polls Are Biased: Trump Will Again Deliver A Stunning Upset.” In a long, number-rich post, Dogan takes apart the latest pro-Democrat vote forecast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. According to Dogan, the polls are wrong, and their bias is heightened by the fact that they reflect people’s concerns about Trump having caught the Wuhan virus.
‘squeaker’ ... ?
NOT! SOMEONE has been living under a rock
My blowout forecast has Trump winning 41 states and 427 electoral votes versus 9 states and DC and 111 electoral votes for Biden.
In 2016, Hillary largely ignored Wisconsin and Michigan. That ended up costing her a lot.
Biden has suspended his campaign more than a week before the election. He is basically ignoring all 50 states. That will end up costing him a lot.
RE: NOT! SOMEONE has been living under a rock
In a fair election, this would be a blowout.
With Covid-19 and mail-in voting, I don’t expect this to be a fair election. Hence, the word “squeaker” is appropriate to use.
Is this something to be concerned about?
From the 2016 group (30 Trump-win states)...it’s pretty clear that all 30 will be Trump wins, and some by 10 to 20 percent more votes than last time.
It’s these new potential Trump-win states (Minn, NM, NV, Oregon) that will probably be marginally won by Trump.
I’ll even suggest half-a-million more votes for Trump in California this time around, and in some areas of NY City...Biden really does badly (more to blame for the mayor/governor than anything else).
RE: Biden has suspended his campaign more than a week before the election. He is basically ignoring all 50 states. That will end up costing him a lot.
Biden has a different strategy and it remains to be seen if this will work. His campaign has amassed a humongous amount of money from rich corporations and moneyed labor unions — hundreds of millions!
His plan is to saturate the airwaves and social media with ads instead, especially in battleground states where he should be physically present campaigning. He is hoping that since most Americans are at hope due to Covid and have nothing better to do than to watch TV, go to the Internet or read the papers, this plan will overcome Trump’s physical presence.
What states did Hillary NOT ignore?
She did not campaign. She fund-raised.
It was the prototype for this election. The Dems want to get rid of campaigning, altogether.
Darth, FYI, this is in line with the poll you posted. I’d love to believe it, but for sanity’s sake I’m going keep myself in pessimist mode.
Latest Poll Numbers 10-26-20 TRENDING RED !
National Trump 51.5%, Biden 43.6%.
Oregon US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Jeff Merkley 47%, Republican Challenger Joe Rae Perkins 47%.
Arizona US Senate Race. Republican Incumbent Martha McSally 50%, Democrat Challenger Mark Kelly 44%.
Michigan US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Gary Peters 47%, Republican Challenger John James 49%.
Minnesota US Senate Race. Democrat Incumbent Tina Smith 47%, Republican Challenger Jason Lewis 50%.
Florida Trump 52%, Biden 43%.
New Jersey Trump 46%, Biden 47%.
Connecticut Trump 46%, Biden 50%.
Oregon Trump 47%, Biden 45%.
New Hampshire Trump 50%, Biden 45%.
Maine Trump 50%, Biden 46%.
Georgia Trump 53%, Biden 42%.
Virginia Trump 48%, Biden 46%.
North Carolina Trump 54%, Biden 41%.
Iowa Trump 55%, Biden 40%.
Michigan Trump 51%, Biden 45%.
New Mexico Trump 45%, Biden 43%.
Wisconsin Trump 50%, Biden 45%.
The article lies in the first paragraph. The polls did not predict a Hillary landslide. Seven days before the election, they predicted she would win, nationally, by 2.2% which is basically what happened in the popular vote. National polls say Joe will beat Hillary’s lead by 5.1%.
The polls were correct in 2016.
Vote in 2016:
Hillary 48.2%
Trump 46.1%
VA is trending blue with a lot of momentum from 2018 (stole 3 house seats) and 2019 (both state houses flipped to Dem). It's going to take a miracle to stop that. It's possible that in other states like NJ the dem voters will be too complacent. But they are not complacent here. We will be very lucky to get 1 or 2 of our seats back.
we are all in that boat!
It’s gonna be a blowout.
Phrasing.
Squeeker, Blowout, or somewhere in between for either side. I think that covers it. :)
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