Looks like the Cuban-Americans are turning out for Trump in Dade County as Trump has advantage over 2016.
I have high hopes for Miami-Dade.
Rubio lost Miami by 100k in 2016 Senate race.
Trump lost Miami by 300k in 2016.
Alot of votes for Trump to pick up there this year.
The irony of this: If Trump wins re-election, the “White supremacist” will be helped significantly by the “minority vote”.
Oh, yes, Miami-Dade is the big outlier this cycle.
I have a theory that to switch from Party X to Party Y, you go through this process:
Party X voter -> (demotivated voter) -> Party Y voter
In other words, you can deduce the amount of crossover D votes in Florida by measuring a lower enthusiasm (because a bunch of these will be demotivated).
Miami Dade and to a lesser extent Broward seem to be suffering that dip, which means there’s probably a good number of crossover votes in these big D numbers.
In fact as you move through the map, you see more Trump advantage in the South that lessens as you go up north. There’s definitely a geographic pattern.
Ideally, you’d like to see Trump advantage everywhere, but since so much of the FL population is down south, I’ll take it.