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To: Rumierules

That’s correct. Republicans are kicking butt in IPEV and taking names, yes.

The comparison point is overall EV gap from 2016 (both VBM and IPEV).

(Note the map defaults to in-person EV only. The All EV map is bluer.)

I calculated that given the expected Election Day strength, if Republicans pull within 5% Biden advantage for overall EV, it’s excellent for Trump. It is winnable with up to 8% Biden advantage. A few more days like yesterday should put us there.

The counties you named do have a higher median income relative to their surrounding counties. Trump also seems to be doing well when you cross-reference to a map of Hispanic-strong counties. It does seem that this year’s race is aligning to class.


243 posted on 10/22/2020 5:38:52 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: byecomey

Thanks. Democrat turnout so far is 35.7% versus 27.7% to Republicans. So the gap is 8% now. If I recall correctly, the gap was 8.5% just yesterday a.m.

If that pace continues, Republicans could have the turnout gap down to 3% when EV closes.


244 posted on 10/22/2020 5:55:26 AM PDT by Rumierules
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