That’s correct. Republicans are kicking butt in IPEV and taking names, yes.
The comparison point is overall EV gap from 2016 (both VBM and IPEV).
(Note the map defaults to in-person EV only. The All EV map is bluer.)
I calculated that given the expected Election Day strength, if Republicans pull within 5% Biden advantage for overall EV, it’s excellent for Trump. It is winnable with up to 8% Biden advantage. A few more days like yesterday should put us there.
The counties you named do have a higher median income relative to their surrounding counties. Trump also seems to be doing well when you cross-reference to a map of Hispanic-strong counties. It does seem that this year’s race is aligning to class.
Thanks. Democrat turnout so far is 35.7% versus 27.7% to Republicans. So the gap is 8% now. If I recall correctly, the gap was 8.5% just yesterday a.m.
If that pace continues, Republicans could have the turnout gap down to 3% when EV closes.