Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Am I the only person who finds this report depressing?
It “LOOKS” like Trump is going to lose Florida based on these numbers and some of the comments.
Can someone, ANYONE, try to put this in perspective compared to 2016 and 2018(Governor and Senate Races)?
Florida went Trump in 2016. Has had a Republican Governor for years. Has 2 Republican Senators. In 2018, not a great year for Republicans nationwide, Republicans WON. What has changed?
True, but even at those marks, they are smack dab in the middle of the 294K lead you estimated, so all in all we are kind of right where we thought we’d be.
Won’t happen? Well, we will find out in 2 weeks. Just keep in mind your 653K threshold hasn’t changed in a long time, yet the race is dynamic. Some GOP areas aren’t even voting yet.
In my red county (Trump got 64% of the vote here in 2016) I have never seen lines like this for IPEV. The poll workers told me it had been non-stop like that since EV started on October 15.
Nice Miami IPEV numbers.
Rs 31,799
Ds 35,383
Bkm
Data is skewed because Ds have voted by mail in large numbers.
Those numbers are in the stats early.
In person early voting is under way. That will add to R numbers.
Its early.
I do think it will be a close election. Florida is always that way.
Yep. A close election.
GOP just sent 3-4 early voter mailers to registered Republicans in FL. I expect that will have some impact.
I’ve been double and triple checking the Miami-Dade numbers to make sure they aren’t wrong.
Why?
Go here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida and look at how Miami-Dade turned out versus Broward.
Now go back to the early vote totals and check out the number of early votes in Broward & Miami-Dade.
Something really weird is happening in Miami-Dade.
“Won’t happen? Well, we will find out in 2 weeks. Just keep in mind your 653K threshold hasn’t changed in a long time, yet the race is dynamic. Some GOP areas aren’t even voting yet.”
I know people want to complain about 653k. I realize that percentages are a better metric. But I tried to reasonably turn 80.5% turnout that I think Ds need to hit into a vote number.
In the end, I think 653k will correlate decently with percentages.
Meaning if 653k is hit, Ds will be in the vicinity of 80%. Maybe 79%. If they hit 653k with 74% turnout, then I missed the mark bigly.
VMB requests now up to 5,854,426 and rises each day. I will do another calculation on 10/25 with deadline for requests. I expect 653k to go up some, maybe not alot. The new additional requests are more balanced D/R than before.
Tell me bottom-line stuff. We got FL?
If more GOP vote early, doesn’t that mean less are available to vote later.
I predicted Trump gets higher percentage of the vote in Miami-Dade than Palm in 2020.
Trump 2016 totals
Broward - 31.37%
Palm - 41.13%
Miami - 34.07%
“Tell me bottom-line stuff. We got FL?”
Yes. By 1%.
Closer than 2016 which was 1.2%.
But yes Trump takes FL.
Registration changes have come to life in Dade.
What was the black share in 2016?
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