Florida Early Vote update, 10/21/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/21/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797

Combined (VBM+IPEV):

10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%

10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%

[kenmcg]

Who’s to say all the democrat votes are for Biden? We know that 15-20% of the rally goers are dems. God forbid, if we lose FL. it could be an early night. The Gov. and law enforcement have to be on the lookout for fraudulent voting.

[byecomey]

In fact as you move through the map, you see more Trump advantage in the South that lessens as you go up north. There’s definitely a geographic pattern.

Ideally, you’d like to see Trump advantage everywhere, but since so much of the FL population is down south, I’ll take it.

[Coop]

We hope

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Republican vote-by-mail return rate fell five percent behind almost immediately, and has been holding steady since then;”

Very true.

“Seems a reasonably presumption the return rate will ultimately be very similar.”

That’d be the optimistic view. I keep waiting, and waiting.

[Ravi]

Good stuff Speedy.

Prediction:
82% overall turnout of R voters (4.24 million)
79% overall turnout of D voters (4.19 million)

Let's see how accurate I am.

Good day in NC (all forms of advance voting):
DEMs turnout went from 45.0% to 43.7%
REPs turnout went from 26.3% to 27.5%
UNA turnout went from 28.4% to 28.5%
2.16 million ballots cast so far. That is an impressive 45.5% of 2016 turnout (incredible).

Florida needs to catch up to this turnout.


NC voter registration changes 10/20 to 10/21:
REPs +1,416.
DEMs +1,239.
UNA +792.

[byecomey]

The independents are voting much more similarly to Republicans in terms of in-person and VBM turnouts. If it quacks like a duck...

[wfu_deacons]

Can anyone provide some thoughts of the race in NC?

Election Day minus 19 days: The Dems led on early voting (VBM + in-person) 49% to 22% for Reps.

Today, Election Day minus 14 days: The Dems lead on early voting 44% to 27% for Reps. So the Reps have cut 5% of the lead in 5 days.

For 2016, the final numbers were 38% Dem and 33% Rep. Since so many people are voting early this year, it would seem we need to get to those numbers (or very close to them) by election day.

I do have some anxiety with the independent vote. Per 2016 exit polling, Trump won 53% of independents in 2016. Recent polling in 2020 has him with about 46%. I think he would be wise to talk about the economy and getting kids back to school (a big issue with parents of young children) to bolster this demographic.

[TheDandyMan]

I agree. I’m not sure when the good news comes at this rate.

[usafa92]

Your assumption is confirmed by Baris in his polling/discussions.

https://twitter.com/peoples_pundit/status/1318753517377622025?s=21

[wfu_deacons]

You and I must have been typing at the same time.

[Ravi]

Georgia is going bonkers with early voting! They've been at it since the 12th.

They are now up to 45.9% turnout of 2016! (1.9 million ballots cast).

Black share of the vote has now dropped from 34.4% (before early voting) to 29.8% this morning.

Only 5.1% in the 18 to 24 cohort. That seems awfully low with 2 million votes in already.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Prediction:
82% overall turnout of R voters (4.24 million)
79% overall turnout of D voters (4.19 million)”

I might pick 81 and 78.

But key point is delta is 50,000 votes. A closer margin than 2016. For those who think Trump is going to win Florida by 3,4,5%. Won’t happen.

The data right now, 13 days before election shows a bigger D turnout than 2016. That makes the race closer.

Trump won by 1.2% in 2016. Data says a closer margin this year.

[deport]

2016 vote in Florida

                 TRUMP           CLINTON  
Electoral vote	   29               0
Popular vote	4,617,886	4,504,975
Percentage	49.02%	         47.82%

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Florida needs to catch up to this turnout.”

Florida is on its way.

Total voting on Monday 500k.
Yesterday 675k. Amazing.

[Ravi]

I think we were. I believe FL is where GA and NC were about a week ago. Give it one more week since early voting only began on Monday.

[LS]

Well, I just don’t think they can keep this up at 3% a day. I don’t care how many are outstanding. No way they hit 84%.

And the Miami-Dade #s among Hispanics are nearly 50/50, suggesting that MANY of the Hispanic voters are voting Trump but never changed registration.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

One thing NO ONE is considering here is how many of these Dems are voting Trump, these ballots have not even been opened yet!! There are 450,000 in the #walkaway movement alone!! In a national election there is no reason for people to change their voter registration Trump has made HUGE inroads in the black and Hispanic communities everyone needs to just calm down!!

[SpeedyInTexas]

So byecomey added a feature to his Florida map that shows statewide IPEV “totals”. Updates every 30 minutes, but may need to manually refresh.

Rs IPEV lead up to 44k so far today from yesterdays 41k.

[SpeedyInTexas]

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

[Ravi]

Red team should pass blue team in overall turnout in Escambia and Brevard today.

They should pass them in Flagler and Pasco by tomorrow or Friday.

Counties are starting to line up just like the primary.