Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
If I am reading the map correctly, only five counties are advantage Biden: Leon, Alachua, Duval, Orange, and Seminole.
Does that mean that the 5 counties above are the only ones where Democrats are turning out with stronger relative force (compared to 2016) in IPEV?
In the other 50 or so, Republicans are chipping away at the turnout advantage Democrats gained (and are still gaining) in VBM.
If it’s not asking too much, I’d like a 50K+ GOP FL IPEV advantage today. Thank you.
That’s correct. Republicans are kicking butt in IPEV and taking names, yes.
The comparison point is overall EV gap from 2016 (both VBM and IPEV).
(Note the map defaults to in-person EV only. The All EV map is bluer.)
I calculated that given the expected Election Day strength, if Republicans pull within 5% Biden advantage for overall EV, it’s excellent for Trump. It is winnable with up to 8% Biden advantage. A few more days like yesterday should put us there.
The counties you named do have a higher median income relative to their surrounding counties. Trump also seems to be doing well when you cross-reference to a map of Hispanic-strong counties. It does seem that this year’s race is aligning to class.
Thanks. Democrat turnout so far is 35.7% versus 27.7% to Republicans. So the gap is 8% now. If I recall correctly, the gap was 8.5% just yesterday a.m.
If that pace continues, Republicans could have the turnout gap down to 3% when EV closes.
Thats is 100k net for Rs. The R Storm is building.
Again, thank you for registration efforts in FL. I think the net R voters in FL, NC, PA, AZ will be the difference in the race.
Strictly, the exact comparable to the “Trump/Biden advantage” fields would be the party EV ratios.
At the top of page in the totals it’s currently 45.19%D-34.44%R (10.75% gap).
In 2016, the overall gap was 39.8%-38.34% (1.46% gap). So we are one point and change away from getting within the magic <8% number. <5% would be much better IMO.
I guess I could put down an Overall Trump/Biden advantage just to keep score.
I guess I could put down an Overall Trump/Biden advantage just to keep score.
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That would be excellent. We need to read the tea leaves from every possible vantage point.
Joined in 2008 and you still haven’t created an about page.
RINO.
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