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Frontrunner?
the-american-catholic ^ | 10/10/2020 | Donald R. McClarey

Posted on 10/11/2020 11:41:06 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam

From a commentator (Boog) at The Hedgehog Report, a site
that looks at polls:

Take a look at this electoral map:


Trump has a floor of 259 EVs. ...
...
What the map shows is that Trump only needs
one of WI,
MN, PA or MI. He could even win by plucking VA (which is
admittedly unlikely), or by taking some mix of NH,
ME-2 and NV.

On the other hand, Biden has to SWEEP almost all of
the remaining states.

... Trump is a candidate who the pollsters are finding
it increasingly difficult to poll, and that is why many
Democrat party higher-ups are alarmed despite the polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at the-american-catholic.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Maine; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: Pennsylvania; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2020election; bloggers; election; election2020; landslide; maine; michigan; minnesota; nevada; newhampshire; pennsylvania; trump; trumplandslide; virginia; wisconsin

1 posted on 10/11/2020 11:41:06 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

As a get out the Trump vote incentive, tell friends that a tie means Nancy Pelosi would demand to be sworn in as Acting President. That should wake them up.


2 posted on 10/11/2020 11:45:34 AM PDT by frank ballenger (End vote fraud,harvesting,non-citizen voting & leftist media news censorship or we are finished.)
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

Let’s see, RCP has Trump more than 4% behind 2016 overall but UP 0.5% over 2016 in the battleground state polls.

How does that compute?


3 posted on 10/11/2020 11:47:42 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Reverse Wickard v Filburn (1942) - and - ISLAM DELENDA EST)
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To: frank ballenger

Actually 12th Amendment “contingency president” provision would be the loophole for “President Nancy” to take over. God forbid.


4 posted on 10/11/2020 11:49:03 AM PDT by frank ballenger (End vote fraud,harvesting,non-citizen voting & leftist media news censorship or we are finished.)
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

All true. But he must hold FL, OH, and AZ.


5 posted on 10/11/2020 11:49:33 AM PDT by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: BenghaziMemoriam
What the map shows is that Trump only needs one of WI, MN, PA or MI. He could even win by plucking VA (which is admittedly unlikely), or by taking some mix of NH, ME-2 and NV.

Several other poll watchers have reached the same conclusion. That doesn't mean that they are right, but the media and the RCP average devotees are going to be disappointed once again, even if Biden manages to win. I belive that he is underperforming Hillary Clinton at this point. Couple that with the fact that the Democrats scrapped their entire Get Out the Vote machine due to COVID gives all of us cause for optimism.

6 posted on 10/11/2020 11:52:04 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: frank ballenger
Actually 12th Amendment “contingency president” provision would be the loophole for “President Nancy” to take over.

Just how would she propose to stage that coup?
Pelosi WILL not be president. Period.
Thanks to the Supreme Court, election results will be known for the most part by the next morning after the elections. Legal challenges? Yes, but the December 14th deadline for the electoral college will be met.

7 posted on 10/11/2020 12:05:26 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide
Let’s see, RCP has Trump more than 4% behind 2016 overall but UP 0.5% over 2016 in the battleground state polls. How does that compute?

Because RCP is an average of various national polls. It does not take into account the quality of the national polls. It's garbage in, garbage out.

National polls almost always over-sample Dems, under-sample Reps, and don't make any "leaning" effort among self-described Indies. Also, just as with anonymously sourced news articles, you can't be sure pollsters actually reach real live human beings instead of just making up numbers.

8 posted on 10/11/2020 12:10:11 PM PDT by Avalon Memories (Fight the Left - the communists - not our own.)
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To: MrChips

Trump will take OH FL and AZ and with the ballot harvesting plans of the Dem in Wisconsin taken down by the courts plus the recurring BLM riots in Wisconsin, Trump is looking good to take Wisconsin as well.


9 posted on 10/11/2020 12:11:31 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

Speculate, analyze, guess......Trump will win by a landslide and the dems will be finished as a political party. They will splinter into all the groups they created with no central leadership.


10 posted on 10/11/2020 12:14:09 PM PDT by mosaicwolf
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

l8r


11 posted on 10/11/2020 12:42:54 PM PDT by preacher ( Journalism no longer reports news, they use news to shape our society.)
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

Gotta say this is the best / most realistic analysis I’ve seen in a while.

Good counter to all the “Biden’s ahead by 16 PLUS!” BS “polls” that are in all likelihood nothing but voter suppression tactics (yet again..)


12 posted on 10/11/2020 12:45:35 PM PDT by jstolzen
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

“What the map shows is that Trump only needs one of WI,
MN, PA or MI.“

I can’t resist nitpicking here: MN or WI would give him him 269 - he’d still need one more to win. :-)


13 posted on 10/11/2020 1:12:53 PM PDT by enumerated
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To: SmokingJoe; Agamemnon

See Agamemnon’s post:

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3892752/posts?page=33#33

“Trump’s lawyers intend to check/compare every signature on the mail-ins. Very time consuming. If it can’t get done and certify before EC votes ~ Dec 13, the state risks not being counted in the EC tally.
If they can’t complete vote signature comparison, they may have to forego unverifiable mail-ins and be forced to go with just the in-persons and sig-certified absentees only just to get into the EC count at all.

If challenge goes all the way uo the USSC and Amy Coney Barrett is seated, we might see mail-ins discounted simply on the basis of 14th Amendment equal protection of voters rights grounds.

If (D)’sexperience a rout, they will only have themselves to blame, and the long knives will be out for those tacticians responsible for the failed strategy.

FReegards!”


14 posted on 10/11/2020 1:13:40 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: enumerated

ME-2 (where Trump is ahead 8 points) carries him over 269.


15 posted on 10/11/2020 1:20:54 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: MrChips
"All true. But he must hold FL, OH, and AZ."

Actually if Trump won his #2016 set but reversed OH and AZ, he'd still win, 275-256.

16 posted on 10/11/2020 1:30:06 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (I've got your Third Rail of Politics right here.)
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To: MrChips

“All true. But he must hold FL, OH, and AZ”

....and he is ahead in alll three states according to the Trafalgar Group polls.


17 posted on 10/11/2020 1:48:35 PM PDT by Ikemeister
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To: StAnDeliver

He needs to win PA. He is doing a rally there Tuesday night.


18 posted on 10/11/2020 2:27:55 PM PDT by Cottonhill
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
Just show up on Election Day, no matter where you're from.

19 posted on 10/11/2020 4:00:10 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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