COVID-19 Update - 10/10/2020

My own workup | 10/10/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 206

As of 10/09/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁵
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities fell off by 44 cases from the previous day, to come in at 910
yesterday. That was an 5.32% increase from the same day the week before.

New Cases rose by 3,176 from the day before, to come in at 60,715
yesterday. That was an 11.09% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities fell off by 502 cases from the previous day, to come in at 5,884
yesterday. That was a 5.92% increase from the same day last week.

New Cases fell by 178 cases from the day before, to come in at 360,545
yesterday. This was a 5.19% increase from the same day the week before.

Third Wave?

I am seeing numbers build in the United States. Our Active Cases are higher
than they have ever been, and that is after they flattened out for several
weeks. The same thing took place in the first two weeks of June, and then we
saw a new rise directly after. Our Active Case chart for the United States
is now showing the first signs of growth after flattening

Let's hope the numbers prove me wrong over the next few weeks. Otherwise,
*)#^&#! and #@$%*#! (Sanitized for your protection)

I don't understand why the virus experiences these growth spurts. It does
make me curious that just after the president and a number of other highly
visible Republicans tested positive for COVID-19, we now are seeing new
excellerated grown in the nation as well. Is there something we're missing
that is causing this new spurt in growth?

We declared 60,715 New Cases yesterday. That's the highest figure we've seen
since 08/07. We haven't been over 60,000 since 08/14.

Global Cases Rose Up Over a New Benchmark Yesterday

The Global Community Declared it's 37 millionth case yesterday.

The Percentage of Global Resolved Cases Has Changed Directions

For months the percentage of Resolved cases has been rising, It reached
78.111% on 10/06, and has now dropped back down to 77.909%. Global
New Case Declarations have been on fire for a week or so, and it's always
hard for Recovered and Resolved numbers to keep up when that happens.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by a moderate sum yesterday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It dropped yesterday.

It's significant enough now to take note of it daily.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Our Active cases have now broken into new ground, and are higher than they
have been before.

Take note of the Serious/Critical case situation on the right there.
Those cases have been increasing over rcent days.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

We had a mixed bag here yesterday. Our slice of the Active Case pie has now
begun to rise again. I know it's just one day, but you can tell where we're
headed by looking at recent number progressions.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Active Cases rose yesterday. The chart is showing signs of rising. We are
at our highest level of Active Cases now, and with our numbers climbing up
again, that is likely to increase.

The question is, where do we go from here? Are we positioning for a third
wave or are we going to start moving down in earnest? We'll soon find out.

In the last few days, Active Cases have risen a little. i'm worried about a
third wave right how. Globally the cases are hot, and our numbers are up a
little also. Right now our average daily cases are higher than they have
been in seven seeks. I'm not sure how far beyond that it goes back.

Fauci has let it be know, he still thinks were on the first wave. He may be
right. I'm not sure what the scientific requirements are to declare a wave
over. If it settles down, that seems like an end to me, and the chart looks
for all the world like a second wave to me. Now I'm seeing troubling signs.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing fell off a small amount yesterday. The 14-day figure dropped by the
other two averages rose for the day.

Just another day in paradise yesterday. Sure would love to see a drop down
below 4.00% right about now.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line has flattened out, with a small bias upward.
If this weren't a ten day averaging line, we might see more of an
increase in it's trajectory.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Texas and Florida took the top spots yesterday.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland thereChina

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declarations fell off a very small amount yesterday. Every day
Monday through Friday was in excess of 300 thousand.

The Resolved percent came in at 77.859% yesterday, a hair down from the
previous day. It has reversed directly and has been trending lower recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by around 126k yesterday. Serious/Critical cases grew
by 468 cases.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The important number here fell off yesterday. The United States increased
it's slice of the pie, and that allowed the Global Community outside the
United States and China have a bit of a breather.

Thursday and Friday came in with nearly identical numbers. We're
talking over 360,000 and change, and there wasn't much change...

The blue depicting New Cases, has begun to rise. Really sorry to see that.
I hope this isn't the start of something big again.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

The two charts above had looked like they were revealing flattening, but as
the days went by, they began moving upward again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain - OUCH! (Will you look at Spain! Wow!)

France - Ooo

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

I checked the parameters for Spain, and they were correct. That growth is
amazing.

Frace is suffering the same fate.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden has flattened out a bit after that correction a while back.

The Netherlands is just going ballistic.

We do need to keep it in perspective though. While the raw numbers do show
the Netherlands to be going orbital, the per million figures are still a lot
less than Sweden's.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

India led out in both categories yesterday. It's margins of lead are
declining gradually. I suspect it is moderating, but then our case load
is going up, so we're seemingly meeting somewhere in the middle. Who
knows?

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line seems to indicate more flattening in the last
day or so.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We wound up at 77.909% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. That was a
small decline. We have reversed course and are seeing this percentage decline.
This may be another indicator of a third wave starting. The United States
might not be the only regions seeing a new wave brewing.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose by just about 125k yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases rose up by over 466 cases.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

The number of fatalities fell off across the board yesterday.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

We made it through another week without going over 1,000 Fatalities.
What we saw last time a new wave came in, was that Fatalities were
soon to follow. We'll see if that holds true this time. Hopefully
we'll see cases drop off next week, and we won't have to see Fatalities
rise after all.

Seems like we've settled into a Ground-Hog day situation here, living the same
COVID-19 day over and over and over...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here yesterday. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 5,000 cases,
but they have far lees of them still Active. Over 25% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Friday's number came in just a hair under Thursday's. For the last five
days, the Global Community has been above 300,000 each day.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We've been back in 19th place for several days.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 10.

Data from PA Department of Health as of midnight October 9-10.

http://www.health.pa.gov

Those "magic masks" must be working after all.

/s LTC deaths = 5551 (increase of 3)
Total deaths = 8344 (increase of 36)

LTC cumulative as percentage of total cumulative = 66.5%

Remember how yesterday LTC deaths exceeded the total deaths?

Today seems to be another “correction”; and, wonder of wonders, miracles of miracles, for the first time since I began reporting these numbers in early September the percentage has dropped minisculey BELOW 2/3.

[lightman]

I’m Pennsylwania Dutch and that last post got all ferdutz, onest!

Ja vell, so gates!

PM for translation.

[SaxxonWoods]

Everyone has been using the same basic protocols for months, and this virus takes off when and where it wants, as if there is some trigger we don’t understand.

[DoughtyOne]

Today will be the sixth day we’ve seen over 300,000 new
cases each day. It will be the fourth day in a row over
350,000, and the third day in a row over 360,000.

What the heck is going on?

We stand a very good chance of setting a new all time record
for new cases today, a Saturday. Saturday has never been
the high day of the week so far. If that happens, the
outlook for this next week is just brutal.

Sounds like some biological warfare movie.

Yesterday was our highest day since 08/04. It’s the first
day over 60k since 08/14.

When I was going through updating numbers the last few
days, I noticed one nation that hasn’t reported out
additional cases for more than a month. Yesterday and
today it has all of a sudden started reported again.

Is someone beating the bushes trying to discover a whole
bunch of new cases for some reason?

[bluejean]

“Is there something we’re missing
that is causing this new spurt in growth?”

Yes - we’re getting closer to the election.

[conservative98]

reported today, not happened or anytime close to today, they could be cases from months ago

[webheart]

Let’s try to keep people interested. Oh no a spike. Oh my god new cases. Cases cases cases. Blah blah blah.

[Freedom56v2]

BUMP

[contrarian]

My suspicion regarding the new cases is that there are agents spraying virus in carefully selected areas to keep this going until after the election. Conspiracy theory territory I know, but very possible given the political climate in this country. If this is true, may God send them to perdition , but then again these are the baby murderers so no big deal to them..

[freespirit2012]

Am I missing something? How is this breaking news? How many flu cases today?

[BeauBo]

Another theory for the uptick (besides electoral concerns), is seasonality.

As cold and flu season returns, conditions may be more favorable for this disease too.

[traderrob6]

“Am I missing something? How is this breaking news? How many flu cases today?”

My thoughts exactly, other than a few days of over a million testings no real “braking” anything here.

[reegs]

If cases are going up, but deaths are going down, doesn’t that mean the case fatality rate is much smaller? Isn’t this good news?

[enumerated]

“Is someone beating the bushes trying to discover a whole
bunch of new cases for some reason?“

Actually, yes! It’s the onset of cold and flu season. Around this time of year, it is normal for millions of people to begin experiencIng cold and flu symptoms - after going all summer without a sniffle!

Naturally, they will all wonder if they have the covid, as will everyone around them. There will suddenly be tremendous pressure on a lot of people to go get tested. You will see a huge spike in testing, and of course, along with that a huge spike in positives.

There will also be an equally huge spike in negatives, but that won’t start much interest - just the huge spike in positives.

It doesn’t mean there is a true spike in actual cases - it is just a spike in KNOWN cases, as more people get tested and find out if they have it or not.

The covid is far, far more widespread than people think - and far, far less deadly.

[DoughtyOne]

Well, I’m not sure the whole world is concentration on our
election.

[DoughtyOne]

And you attribute that to what?

Please link me to what you have read on that.

[DoughtyOne]

Yeah, it’s a real shame we have the ability to report
what’s out there.

LOL

I though our side believed in the First Amendment.

[DoughtyOne]

I ponder something like that. I have not substantive
information other than what is being reported as new
cases, and of course those recently infect like Trump.