Posted on 10/07/2020 3:40:24 PM PDT by Kaslin
Sorry about letting this fall through the crack folks. We all know that the polling is looking nutty. I mean, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump by 10-17 points in some of these laughable polls. You can’t be ahead by that much and be struggling in Miami-Dade County. You can’t be up that much and with some recent polls showing Trump and Biden are tied in Michigan. When Michael Moore is worried, noting the enthusiasm gap and the race tightening in his home state, you know the race isn’t a lock for Biden. The former VP has his work cut out for him in Pennsylvania as well. And what about the GOP samples. In some of these polls, the sample size is D+10. We’re not going to have that type of electorate in less than a month’s time.
Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh zeroed-in on how these pollsters are picking their GOP samples. To no one’s shock, they’re skewing these surveys by overloading it with suburban Republican voters who are more hostile to Trump. And of course, they averse to sampling rural Republicans who are die-hard Trump supporters. In essence, the ‘R-split’ are pretty much soft Democrats at this point, as suburban voters are notoriously squishy with zero backbone.
Author Larry Schweikart had a thread as he listened to Limbaugh elaborate on what a pollster told him about how this funny business is working out from his September 28 broadcast. Why are they doing this? Well, Rush said it’s simple: the fake news press will provide all the cover.
1) @rushlimbaugh talking about a pollster who sent a note to a friend of his explaining what's happening.
*The pollsters are trying to get "reasonable" R/D splits . . . BUT
*They are picking suburban Rs vs. rural Rs, which are biased against Trump; & they are sampling fewer. . .— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
1) contd. . . zip codes with blue-collar Trump-type DemoKKKrat voters.
2) In this way, they can "claim" to have legit D/R splits (which as we know are STILL about +5 to +9 D), but in fact they are getting the most Trump-hostile Rs and eliminating the most Trump-friendly Ds.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
3) This is ON TOP of the fact that they are asking for the "youngest voter in the home," that they still have not adjusted for the shortfall in 18-24 year olds, and they are still, I think mis-counting blacks.
4) Now, Rush also said that the reason they think they can . . .— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
4) contd . . . get away with this a second time is that they believe the Hoax News media will cover for them; that if they blow it badly again, no one will call them to account (among the "bigs"); and so they are safe in mis-polling a second time.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) September 28, 2020
And he is correct.
Then yet another AAPOR election flop autopsy whitewash report will be generated by next January - as in 2016-2017 - and it will receive somber coverage then promptly buried.— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 28, 2020
At the time, Rasmussen Reports’ Twitter account responded, “Yet another AAPOR [American Association for Public Opinion Research] election flop autopsy whitewash report will be generated by next January - as in 2016-2017 - and it will receive somber coverage then promptly buried.”
Look, again, there’s no middle. Either the pollsters are right this time and we’re wrong or the opposite is true. If it’s the latter, Lord help us all, as it’ll be a 1980 election scenario, but one where Biden wins BIG. If not, it’s another Electoral College landslide for Trump, who will probably clinch over 300 EC votes again. We’ll see.
Similar to last time. Trump had multitudes waiting in line to see him. Football Arenas had to turn people away. Hillary couldn’t fill a small High School auditorium. Yet she led by what, 20 points, with a 93% chance of winning?
The MSM lies about everything, every time. Without exception.
I WANT to believe this. We do know corporate Fox News execs are liars and haters, and in 2016 produced a lying laughable poll showing Trump back 5 points.
Important thread but I think we should have two days where the word poll cannot be included in any thread after this :-)
Polls these days are Affirmative Action for Democrats...
surely someone can put together a reference page for best approximations of R/D/I sampling for swing States, with best-guess urban/rural age/gender splits, whatever, which should inform every polling company, but won’t.
some of us could save it & post it every time someone puts up a new, ever-more-ridiculous poll, for quick comparison, thus avoiding all the agonizing comments.
national polls are a waste of time, and don’t deserve to be posted at all.
Being caught performing political polling should be punishable by a minimum of 5 years in prison without possibility for parole.
2nd offense 20 years.
ALL polls reflect the outcome desired by the guy paying for it. For certain sure, no doubt. That’s how the pollsters stay in business. ALL polls are mostly Bullshit.
Lol
But on a serious note, there is no way that at least some people are not being affected by the constant negative polls.
They get to me sometimes and I wish we had no more on the site until the election.
And I’m done checking rasmussen in the morning a
It’s incredibly detrimental to the country and it should be punished severely.
We did this dance in 2016—poll this, poll that, oh my god we are losing....
This is just getting boring and stupid at this point....
I gave different answers about what party I am registered between the two times. The first was D, but I strongly agreed with all conservative positions and strongly disagreed with all leftist positions - same thing with candidates. The second time, I did the same, but told them I am registered as an R.
I seriously question any poll that sends a text message. But it did get though to me. Who knows if I was called (voice) for a poll. If I don't know the number dialing me, it doesn't get answered.
There is little science (mathematics, as in statistics) going on here. I use stats every day for work. I have three college courses (although eons ago) in prob and stats - calculus based. It wasn't all maths either. We learned about how to define populations, random sample, etc.
It has to be an up hill battle for any pollster to sample accurately to reflect those the population of those who will actually vote. Cell phones and caller ID were the game changer. So many, including myself, do not have a landline.
You might have a First Amendment issue with that law.
YES!!
It’s a waste of time and I think personally unhealthy after a while. At least for some. Maybe including me :-).
There is no point to it.
None. Zero. Except to upset people and cause arguments
The Dem elites know Trump will win on election day. They want to make it seem like his victory isn’t legitimate. Then, millions of mail in ballots will appear to elect Biden.
When they are trying to figure out the winner, protesters and rioters, Antifa and BLM, will cause havoc. This is the plan, orchestrated by Obama, Soros and NeverTrumpers. This is why Obama never left DC.
Polls are inherently inaccurate. Decent, rational people do not take unsollicited calls or discuss their personal political opinions with strangers. Also as businessmen the polling companies just happen to come up results that please the people who commissioned the poll.
“ALL polls are mostly Bullshit.”
I have yet to read a poll the accurately predicted an election outcome to the exact basis point.
I think if you check the polls for the last forty years democrats were ahead going into the presidential election in every year,,,except one Reagan was even or ahead one point in 1984
It seems more pronounced in the last two elections. I maybe wrong on that. I agree, the Rats are always ahead in the polls tho.
And don’t forget shillary had madonna promising some special services for those who voted for shillary....she also had “entertainers” giving free shows and she couldn’t get but a couple of thousand to show up.
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