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Black turnout lagging in North Carolina mail-in voting.
NC State Board of Elections ^
| September 29, 2020
| Vanity
Posted on 09/29/2020 11:31:38 AM PDT by bort
Bad news: Mail-in ballots cast in North Carolina as of today: 147K/46K/81K (Dem/Rep/Una)
Good news: Mail-in ballots cast by race: 201K/44K/29K (white/black/other).
Translation: 4.3% of white registered voters have already cast a mail-in ballot, versus 2.94% of black registered voters. THIS IS A DISASTER FOR DEMOCRATS (see below).
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: black; carolina; turnout; voting
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When Obama won in 2008 and 2012, blacks out-voted whites as a percentage of registered voters. In both years, roughly 71% of black registered voters in NC voted. In 2016, without Obama on the ballot, black turnout dropped: 64% of black registered voters cast ballots. White turnout was roughly 68% in 2008/12 and increased to 71% in 2016. Keep in mind that polls (and personal experience) show that black women, who vote at much higher rates than black men, are the most fearful of the China Virus. According to other data, 81% of blacks who have requested mail-in ballots were super-likely to vote anyway compared to 70% of whites. In short, while superficially Republicans seem to be at a disadvantage, an honest translation of this data strongly suggests that black turnout is more likely to drop to 2004 levels (58%) than hit Obama-era levels of 72%. The folks who have voted by mail--and who will vote by mail--are older, whiter, and more Trump-friendly than Democrats (and unaffilateds) in general. Keep in mind that many older, white "Democrats" cross-over to vote Republican. In North Carolina, you can predict the outcome based on the racial composition of the electorate, not strictly on Rs vs. Ds. Discuss.
1
posted on
09/29/2020 11:31:38 AM PDT
by
bort
To: bort
That’s OK. The Dem ballot harvesters will make sure they each send in 3 ballots...just to make sure
2
posted on
09/29/2020 11:34:22 AM PDT
by
nhbob1
To: nhbob1
i know i’m having a Biden moment, but how would they know the race of a Mail In voter?
3
posted on
09/29/2020 11:38:03 AM PDT
by
sappy
(criminaldems)
To: sappy
Under the Voting Rights Act, southern states are required to note “race” with other voter registration info. The board of elections keeps track of race, sex, and age. You can also gather information on how often a particular voter votes, etc.
4
posted on
09/29/2020 11:40:36 AM PDT
by
bort
To: byecomey; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas; LS
5
posted on
09/29/2020 11:44:21 AM PDT
by
bort
To: sappy
The black mail-in ballot is black! Duh...
To: bort
Just wait. All of those black votes by mail will mysteriously turn up after the election numbers are counted.
7
posted on
09/29/2020 11:59:14 AM PDT
by
al_c
(Democrats: Party over Common Sense)
To: bort
Thanks. I'm sure you saw this also from Dr. Blitzer. I believe you were referencing this yesterday:
So are registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters "cannibalizing" their voters who are likely to cast ballots? That's one way to look at it; another way is that these are likely very partisan (even among the unaffiliated) voters who want their votes banked and don't care about what happens during the rest of this election; as I noted earlier, they are "done" with this election. As we get into the heat of the electoral battle this month, and with presidential debates and a contested Supreme Court nomination fight to highlight an already bitterly divided electorate, these numbers may provide a sense of where things are heading. But to gauge anything more until the voters have completely spoken on Election Day, and the results are fully compiled and certified, is a fool's errand this year. But again, as I noted earlier: it is 2020, after all.
8
posted on
09/29/2020 12:00:57 PM PDT
by
Ravi
To: bort
Black’s have the highest rejection rate of ballots.
Blacks - 4.3%
Hispanics - 3.1%
Native Americans - 3.0%
Asians - 2.5%
Whites - 1.1%
9
posted on
09/29/2020 12:06:35 PM PDT
by
SpeedyInTexas
(Localization, not Globalization)
To: bort
Republican mail-in ballots are lagging dem mail-ins by huge margins everywhere they are currently permitted. No mystery there: We dont trust the postal service and this whole vote by mail charade, and are thus holding out to vote until the last minute to limit the time available for dems to tamper with our votes. I live in Colorado, where we have been all mail-in for a while now, and I always hold our ballots until Election Day or at most a day or two in advance, and then I hand deliver them to the drop box at our polling place. I cant be the only one.
10
posted on
09/29/2020 12:08:40 PM PDT
by
noiseman
(The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.`)
To: SpeedyInTexas
They are not lagging. They are just being held back until needed. Before they manufacture votes, they have to know how many they need to manufacture.
11
posted on
09/29/2020 12:10:22 PM PDT
by
sport
To: Ravi
Yes, I saw it. And there is no doubt in my mind that the Democrat numbers in NC and other states vis-a-vis early voting are more a reflection of China Virus than extra enthusiasm. I looked at PA mail in requests, which are 3 to 1 Dem/Rep. The Left is orgasmic over these numbers.
The problem: These numbers are extremely top-heavy with voters 50 and older, and especially senior citizens, and extremely light on younger voters. I have found no racial breakdown in PA (probably is none, as only southern states keep track of this data). We still need another week of data to be more certain.
12
posted on
09/29/2020 12:13:32 PM PDT
by
bort
To: bort; sappy
As Bort stated. Also there is category "others" as a demographic category now. It seems many voters - white, black, Hispanic, asian and everything in between are now choosing this demographic category "Others" as opposed to what they really are. Again fascinating to see people give a big middle finger to this demographic system. See these 2 data points 4 years apart.
On 10/01/16 there were 474,223 "Others" demographically.
On 9/26/20 there were 974,529 "Others" demographically.
Demographically, the choices are white, black, american indian, Hispanic, Native Hawaiian and Other.
The numbers of whites, blacks and american indians are down compared to 4 years ago and hispanics are up only modestly. The only category that has made a significant leap upwards in the past 4 years demographically speaking are the Others.
https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F01%2F2016
https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=09%2F26%2F2020
13
posted on
09/29/2020 12:14:03 PM PDT
by
Ravi
To: bort
Blacks in NC tend to vote in large numbers during their “Souls to the Polls” events.
I wonder if Black churches are planning to do that again this year. Anyone know?
Churches in NC mostly open?
14
posted on
09/29/2020 12:14:16 PM PDT
by
SpeedyInTexas
(Localization, not Globalization)
To: bort
Not voting is there way of voting for Trump.
15
posted on
09/29/2020 12:14:53 PM PDT
by
Conserv
To: bort
[In North Carolina, you can predict the outcome based on the racial composition of the electorate, not strictly on Rs vs. Ds.]
IIRC, in southern states, whites vote at the rate of 70% for the GOP. If the rest of the white population voted this way, the GOP would own Congress and the White House. (Sigh ...)
16
posted on
09/29/2020 12:15:05 PM PDT
by
Zhang Fei
(My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
To: Zhang Fei
“40.2 million eligible whites weren’t registered to vote at all in 2012”
Probably much larger in 2020.
17
posted on
09/29/2020 12:19:07 PM PDT
by
SpeedyInTexas
(Localization, not Globalization)
To: SpeedyInTexas
Blacks have the highest rejection rate of ballots.
Blacks - 4.3%
Hispanics - 3.1%
Native Americans - 3.0%
Asians - 2.5%
Whites - 1.1%
_________________________________________________
Correct. Ironically, however, Democrat ballots in NC are being rejected at a slightly LOWER rate than Republicans. How can this be? If blacks and young people get their mail votes rejected at higher rates, wouldn’t we expect Democrats as a whole would be having their ballots rejected at a higher rate than Rs? Putting 2 + 2 together, IMHO, those who are casting mail-in ballots are older and whiter, which means, in North Carolina, there are a chunk of Trump-friendly, more conservative southern Democrats in the universe of Democrat mail-in ballots. That’s why I largely ignore party, and focus on race in southern states.
18
posted on
09/29/2020 12:25:01 PM PDT
by
bort
To: Ravi
Adding to your excellent point, there is actually a sizable Cuban exile community in North Carolina. It’s not Miami-Dade by any stretch. It dates back to the Jesse Helms days.
19
posted on
09/29/2020 12:27:10 PM PDT
by
bort
To: bort
20
posted on
09/29/2020 12:30:25 PM PDT
by
Ravi
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