I’m doing to use this opportunity to ping my whole list here.
Beginning either Monday or Wednesday next week, I will have a regular column on politics/the election at www.ucoverdc.com. This will run MWF til the election in addition to any regular, larger columns I have there. A couple of days ago, in my article “The Democrats Post-Loss Plan,” I said that (as you all know from my past comments to you) not only is Trump going to win, but he will win decisively. Not a landslide, which would need NY, IL and/or CA, but 320-350 EVs. Maybe higher.
In that column I said that Cankles tipped off what’s happening: Demented Perv Biteme will refuse to concede claiming there are outstanding ballots, and they will try to delay to get this into the House (where, still, they would lose because the House votes by DELEGATION not member, and the Rs have 26 delegations). Not only would this delay, but it would throw the Veep decision to the Senate, where with enough defections Harris (i.e., Kampuchea) would become veep. Then they’d work on impeaching Trump again.
None of this will work. I think the election will be so clear that it will be called Tuesday night. Recent polling (not all of it of course, but Trafalgar esp) has Trump up in WI and PA, more or less tied in MI. Even this polling is hugely suspect. Both Bill Cahaly of Trafalgar and Richard Baris of PPD/Big Data (the most accurate pollster out there in 2016) say that they are having real trouble reaching “shy Trump voters” whom they know are out there, but who don’t want to go on record. (They even know or have interviewed many of these people personally. So I don’t think a repeat of 306 is at all in doubt, but polling also shows Trump in a tie in MNH (316). I think the voter reg in NH is so heavy R that only another cheat by MA border jumpers can prevent that from being Trump’s (320).
Then things get interesting. Trump has put resources into NM. They see something there. NM GOP has cut the D lead of 100,000 by 10% since 2016-—not huge, but no Gary Johnson on the ticket there this time either (70,000). That makes Trump’s real flip number closer to 15,000. And that’s not a heavy lift at all.
Likewise, NV has seen the GOP slice 13,000 of the D lead there, and the hotel/entertainment employees are angry at their D governor. NV will be close. Those to states alone would put Trump at 330. The next tier includes VA, ME, and CO. Trump’s reversal of ME fishing regulations has saved the lobster industry there. As for VA, the difference in 2016 was about 250,000. That’s a needed flip of 125,000. Doable, especially since Trump continues to poll (relatively) VERY well with blacks. Zogby yesterday had him at 31% approval.
I don’t think he’ll get any where close to 20% vote, but he doesn’t need to. At 11-12% actual vote for Trump, and another 3-5% staying home, you are in the “net real vote” for Trump at 12-15%. No DemoKKKrat can win without 90% black vote. Cankles had 88% and lost. Demented Perv Biteme is now somewhere under 80% and I think he’ll come in around 75%—a death blow to the Dem Party overall. Then there is Kanye, who unfortunately missed being on the WI ballot by 17 seconds. He did get on MN—very important. Kanye nationally may draw 1% more black vote from Bitemen.
The lower student vote appears to be coming along nicely, as Michigan State declined to reopen, and as big schools such as OSU had instant “coviditis” when they tried to reopen. Still, I think the best overall we can hope for is a national 30% decline in student turnout from 2016, or about 1 to 1.5m DEMOKKKRAT students staying home/not voting (I factored out the Rs).
Right there folks we have between 3 and 5 MILLION votes that won’t be going for Demented Perv Biteme or any other DemoKKKrat. However, if CSPAN calls and anecdotal evidence on Twit and other places is accurate, the number of Ds voting Rs this cycle will greatly exceed that of 2016. Apparently on the “DemoKKKrat” line on CSPAN in the last few nights, between 1/3 to 1/2 of all DemoKKKrat callers said they were voting Trump. Don’t know how that affects down ticket.
Finally, when you’re looking at comments from the Whackadoodle Libs as I do, you see that they are admitting (a la Don [”Blind Lemon Don”] Lemon on CNN) that the riots are killing them. These riots won’t let up, because while some (like Kenosha mayor/WI gov) have asked for fed troops, Portland, Seattle, NY, and Chicago have not.
This and the Virus now are huge losers for DemoKKKrats. This cycle Trump has gained 1) the police and their unions; 2) most small business owners; 3) some suburbanites feeling the pinch of the riots; and 4) more blacks and hispanics while DemoKKKrats have lost major numbers of blacks, hispanics, and students.
Shaping up for a very nice election night.
BTW, Richard Baris and I are planning to do an Election Night webcast with Rich doing data/election calls and yours truly hosting. We will try to bring in local celebs and you’ll get REALLY advanced calls. Rich called PA 3 hours before the nets in 2016, called FL a good hour before the nets. Still working on it, but if it happens, I’ll give you all the Steamyard link to share.
Good stuff! Thanks for posting.
Thanks LS. Could these riots be actually helping to turn the country more conservative? I’d appreciate your feedback as Dr. Steve Turly has pointed to one study that cites evidence for this. Lastly, would like your impressions on retaking the House.
I was on Zogby’s email poll for at least a year or more. I finally quit out of disgust. I was utterly amazed how biased it was, questions were funneling the respondent into certain pre-ordained answers. I learned a lot about polling. So if Zogby says Trump is up to 52%, it’s gotta be a LOT higher.
Thanks so much for this Larry. You are really tremendously diligent and informative and helpful. Very much appreciated.
“Richard Baris and I are planning to do an Election Night webcast “ Looking forward to getting the link when/if it comes together!
Outstanding, Larry!
The Mail In Voting is very concerning. The Rats know they will lose BIG without their cheating and they are so thoroughly rotten that we can put absolutely nothing past them.
As always, thank you.
Yes, that will cut down on students double voting at home and at kollege.
Phenomenal Larry! Thanks for sharing.
Thanks, Larry!
Keep up the good work!
FReegards!
Great stuff, Larry, happy for you and our nation!
Thanks so much for the ping, FRiend!
post #104
I think Trump is right that NM is gettable, and it's a good thing - because I think Michigan's 16 electoral votes will be cheated away, thanks to Gretchen the Witch with a Capital B. Trump instead gets NM and MN (yes, MN) for 15 EV. Basically, a wash.
RCP just put up the Trafalgar Michigan poll.
Comparing the prior Trafalgar MI poll to the current one, President Trump gained the lead, moving from 45-46 Biden to 47-45 Trump.
With a MOE of 3% in both polls, President Trump's probability of winning according to the Trafalgar poll went from 34.7% to 77.8%.
However, there are three other MI polls (of varying credibility) in the last 30 days that are pulling down Trump's overall MI probability of winning.
These polls average to a 37.5% chance of winning, but I will be aging out the UofW and EPIC polls next week when I move to a 30-day poll window.
Because I age-weight the polls, if the two oldest polls drop out and no new ones come in to replace them, President Trump's probability will fall to 20.7% because of the CNBC poll. I don't expect that to happen, as Michigan will be a heavily polled state.
-PJ
That will be most excellent! Let us know!