Replies

This report isn't based on accurate polling. Rather it is just another chapter in the long term narrative. The media wanted to project a big lead to discourage casual voters from jumping on the Trump bandwagon. After a few months of this storyline, they are changing this to make sure the casual lefties don't get disinterested and stay home in election day.

In a couple weeks, the polls will supposedly widen again to reflect a convention bounce.

It's become so predictable that it's surprising that they keep doing this every election cycle. The key to understanding the deception of the polls is looking at the breakdown of the sample.

Keep in mind that polling registered voters generally favors Democrats, while polling likely voters typically adds support to Republicans.
+++++
This is not a general rule. It is an absolute rule. It it is the reason the media uses registered or (worse) adult polls during the election cycle rather than the much more accurate Likely Voters.

How many days/hours since Biden announced his running mate has he ducked media questions and has failed to provide open media access?

Seriously, what is wrong with a candidate for President that has not taken media questions and wide ranging unrehearsed questions at that?

Biden must be in horrible mental shape.

Biden's up 4 percent in a CNN poll of registered voters?

Well, make it likely voters and he's down one point, making it a wash.

Consider that it's CNN, spotting him another 10 points or so by weighting the poll away from Republicans... uh oh.

Once the convention's done, don't be surprised if Joe suddenly gets bad news from the doctor and the real candidate is revealed.

polling registered voters generally favors Democrats

No. Registered voters always favor Democrats, especially in the Motor Voter era. This suits the purpose of polls at this stage of the campaign. These polls are intended to influence opinions. Many voters are more than willing to go along with the crowd. They are going to vote for the leader among the popularity contests which is all these polls are.

Likely voter polls general kick in after Labor Day, but remember that all public polls are paid for by the media or by some partisan group. They are paying to get a result that supports their agenda. All media polls and most partisan funded polls support Democrats. Private polls, commissioned by campaigns and other people who need to know how voters will actually behave, are expensive and are focused at the county or precint level. That's the only way to get accurate results. We never see these results.

Instead of watching polls, watch the candidates, they have much better information than the media or us. Right now, the Democrats are behaving like they are behind.