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At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, ... if we wind up in a photo finish, Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.
@NateSilver538 | July 28 2020 | NateSilver538

Posted on 07/28/2020 7:05:21 PM PDT by rintintin

At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, polling is more accurate than its critics think but probably *not* as accurate as it was in say 2004-2012—and if we wind up in a photo finish, Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2020election; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2016; election2020; electoralcollege; faithlesselectors; mediawingofthednc; natesilver; nationalpopularvote; npv; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; smearmachine; trump2020
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1 posted on 07/28/2020 7:05:21 PM PDT by rintintin
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To: rintintin

Link:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1288270150358179840


2 posted on 07/28/2020 7:07:23 PM PDT by rintintin (qu)
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To: rintintin

Trump will win in a landslide and the left will say it was close.


3 posted on 07/28/2020 7:08:06 PM PDT by Gahanna Bob
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To: rintintin

In a “fair” election I think President Trump wins re-election easily. The problem is the voter fraud.


4 posted on 07/28/2020 7:08:09 PM PDT by EvilCapitalist (Fire Fauci)
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To: rintintin

Nate knows Trump is already leading and is only going to get stronger. This was his tell..


5 posted on 07/28/2020 7:08:31 PM PDT by bray (Pray for President Trump)
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To: rintintin

Nate got his fingers burned on the hot stove in 2016—he has learned the hard way never to underestimate the hidden Trump supporters.


6 posted on 07/28/2020 7:10:24 PM PDT by cgbg (Masters don't want slaves talking about masters and slaves.)
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To: bray

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1288270150358179840


7 posted on 07/28/2020 7:11:12 PM PDT by rintintin (qu)
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To: rintintin

Democrats will still be accepting and counting mail-in ballots when the Twelve Days of Christmas starts


8 posted on 07/28/2020 7:12:37 PM PDT by digger48
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To: rintintin

Doesn’t every president win because of the electoral college?


9 posted on 07/28/2020 7:13:30 PM PDT by JudyinCanada (I miss Brother Rob.)
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To: rintintin
It sounds like Nate Silver is already playing CYA so he doesn't get laughed at like he did in 2016 when he gave Hillary a 78% chance of victory on election day.

To be fair though he has been one of the few on the left that have come right out told democrats not to celebrate too soon because Presidential election polling is pretty much useless until mid October when the vast majority of the electorate finally starts paying attention. In fact he said this just a couple weeks ago:

When my democrat friends excitedly ask me if the campaign is over, I tell them "No. Because it hasn't even really begun, and won't until after the conventions."

10 posted on 07/28/2020 7:14:01 PM PDT by apillar
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To: rintintin

We all ought to pray that it is so.


11 posted on 07/28/2020 7:15:08 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizens Are Born Here of Citizen Parents|Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: bray

Also, let us suppose there was a “photo finish” in the popular vote.

Because of California and New York (wasted extra popular votes for bottom b*&^% Biden) the President would get _more_ electoral votes than he got the last time...probably would win NH and MN and would have a shot at NM.


12 posted on 07/28/2020 7:15:24 PM PDT by cgbg (Masters don't want slaves talking about masters and slaves.)
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To: rintintin
Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.

Well since that's how every single President is elected (except in the rare cases where there was no majority or contested and it was decided by the House) - that's quite an astute observation there, Nate.

13 posted on 07/28/2020 7:16:22 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: JudyinCanada

Yep - unless there is not a majority - in which cases it is decided by the House.


14 posted on 07/28/2020 7:17:15 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: EvilCapitalist

That is why there are organizations such as “True The Vote”.


15 posted on 07/28/2020 7:17:45 PM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: EvilCapitalist

Pray that they disallow “mail-in ballots”.

Fraud is the only way the senile pervert and his liberal black female VP choice win.

Trump should wins hands down and then it’s on to suppressing the nationwide riots that follow.


16 posted on 07/28/2020 7:22:00 PM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal (Like Enoch, Noah, & Lot, the True Church will soon be removed & then destruction comes forth.)
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To: apillar
What's funny is Nate Silver (as leftist as they come) is getting absolutely savaged by the left on Twitter right now for not towing the party line and saying, "IT'S BIDEN IN A 50 STATE LANDSLIDE! ELECTION IS OVER!" I read through some of the comments, he's being called everything from a Trump shill to a white elitist, to a moron who doesn't know anything about polling or elections.

Almost feel a bit sorry for him...almost. He's basically doing his job and covering his bases so he doesn't get embarrassed like in 2016 when he said Hillary would win easily and she didn't. But now he's getting "cancelled" by the left for not parroting the correct propaganda.

17 posted on 07/28/2020 7:23:03 PM PDT by apillar
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To: rintintin

I do agree with him that the 2004-2012 stretch (and even 2014) was pretty good for pollsters. They nailed every single major election.


18 posted on 07/28/2020 7:25:08 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: JudyinCanada

Not only that, no president ever wins the “national popular vote”, because it is a fiction. We vote at the state level for electors. Nobody votes nationally for president.


19 posted on 07/28/2020 7:25:46 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: Republican Wildcat

Heh heh...


20 posted on 07/28/2020 7:26:43 PM PDT by Alas Babylon! (The prisons do not fill themselves. Get moving, Barr!)
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