Posted on 04/30/2020 2:11:33 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
I can see where the Docs could have some fun with the new blood when the young Drs try to figure something out.
It’s the entire reason to be an “old doc” in an academic setting. Your job is 100% to bully the young ones and motivate them to learn.
bttt
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016
Apr 23 Thu 14997
Apr 24 Fri 15097
Apr 25 Sat 15110
Apr 26 Sun 15143
Apr 27 Mon 14186
Apr 28 Tue 15298
Apr 29 Wed 18671
Last week we had a 500 patient jump on Monday . And Thursday we had a 1000 patient increase. On Monday, we had a 1000 patient decline in the number of patients critical/serious. On Tuesday we had a 1000 patient increase. And on Wednesday we had a 3,400 patient increase. Thus, it appears the worldometer algorithm made an error on Monday and now we may be in a new phase.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical da it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. Yesterday, we had a sharp increase in critical/serious and a high death rate. April will likely come in with about 58,000 deaths. April 1st seems so long ago when there was a cumulative total of 5,100 deaths in the USA that day.
.
I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.
The drugs so far have not been effective at the task being asked of them. I seriously question whether ANY drug can do what is being asked in this situation. The Ro just has to be kept down while people emerge. Case identification and contact tracing will be the tools that manage the illness from here.
Thanks, but you should provide these sources as links.
Here is another improved formatting chart:
Thanks for the intriguing info. Now how does this correlate to ideological transformation that takes place as regards liberals vs,. moral conservatives?
[So what’s the point of all that? Well, any treatment that is going to be successful HAS to prevent this, what seems to me is probably a pretty characteristic presentation, serious brain injury which is likely already occurring in the seriously ill. It seems to me that no drug is going to get more than a few doses into the patient as all this is occurring. Certainly a drug that is administered IV will get maximal opportunity as it avoids all the pharmacokinetics of absorption, etc. it also has to have a MAJOR impact in those few doses to prevent death or serious disability. (Pretty obviously Remdisivir isn’t it, it has obviously been used in this context and if it was successful we would be hearing “reduces mortality” instead of “shortens hospital stays”)
It is fortunate that the disease progresses to this outcome so rarely.]
Table 2. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by age group, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/25/2020.*Data as of April 29, 2020 [improved formatting added] |
||||||
|
Age group |
COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1 |
Deaths from All Causes |
Pneumonia Deaths |
Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 |
Influenza Deaths |
Population4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
All ages |
33,513 |
706,401 |
61,898 |
14,910 |
5,792 |
327,167,434 |
|
Under 1 year |
4 |
3,662 |
34 |
1 |
11 |
3,848,208 |
|
1–4 years |
2 |
704 |
33 |
2 |
30 |
15,962,067 |
|
5–14 years |
3 |
1,057 |
37 |
0 |
40 |
41,075,169 |
|
15–24 years |
37 |
6,251 |
130 |
15 |
41 |
42,970,800 |
|
25–34 years |
253 |
13,296 |
438 |
106 |
130 |
45,697,774 |
|
35–44 years |
627 |
19,177 |
991 |
249 |
205 |
41,277,888 |
|
45–54 years |
1,721 |
37,124 |
2,556 |
710 |
508 |
41,631,699 |
|
55–64 years |
4,199 |
89,413 |
7,497 |
1,844 |
1,068 |
42,272,636 |
|
65–74 years |
7,220 |
139,006 |
12,862 |
3,177 |
1,264 |
30,492,316 |
|
75–84 years |
9,142 |
174,636 |
17,096 |
4,178 |
1,291 |
15,394,374 |
|
85 years and over |
10,305 |
222,075 |
20,224 |
4,628 |
1,204 |
6,544,503 |
|
NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death. 1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1. 2Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza. 3Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death. 4Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau (9) |
||||||
Watch the thing about Oxidative Stress again because he points out exactly what the source of risk is for the comorbidities and just how the virus releases those effects to amplify. It really is an excellent presentation of “Oxidative Stress.”
The guy in the vid is an Inf Dis guy from UCSF. I doubt I would agree with his politics but that shouldn’t affect his presentation of the facts. He has another video at 4 PM today that is next and I would bet he explains about the “basement membrane being thrombogenic”.
Total Population, Total Deaths
Saudi Arabia, 33 million people, 157 deaths
Chile, 19 million people, 216 deaths
Pakistan, 220 million people, 346 deaths
Japan, 126 million people, 425 deaths
Bangladesh, 170 million people, 163 deaths
Serbia, 8 million people, 173 deaths
Amazing so few deaths in such large populations. Is it real? Are they not reporting? Did fewer Chinese visit these countries? Did the virus decide to focus on Americans and Europeans?
With all the spies in this country, I would think that the Chink spies would eventually infect the A-rab spies to some extent, to drive the numbers up more than shown.
“””Saudi Arabia, 33 million people, 157 deaths
Chile, 19 million people, 216 deaths
Pakistan, 220 million people, 346 deaths
Japan, 126 million people, 425 deaths
Bangladesh, 170 million people, 163 deaths
Serbia, 8 million people, 173 deaths
Amazing so few deaths in such large populations.”””
Japan’s low death rate I attribute to their culture of cleanliness and their standard operating procedure of wearing a mask if they have a cold.
Bangladesh low death rate could be a function of malaria and the fact they may be taking HCQ as a palliative drug for malaria.
Most of the Eastern European countries are like Servia with low death rates. Maybe due to isolation and very few visitors during the winter months.
It just seems so extraordinary, America’s death rate compared to so many other countries. Here’s some more stats:
Russia, 145 million people, 972 deaths.
Turkey, 84 million people, 3,081 deaths.
Canada, 37 million people, 2,996 deaths.
India, 1.38 billion people, 1,079 deaths.
Mexico, 128 million people, 1,732 deaths.
So is he going to file a criminal complaint?
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
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