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Estimating the true number of China’s COVID-19 cases
American Enterprise Institute ^ | 4-7-20 | Derek Scissors

Posted on 04/16/2020 8:30:18 PM PDT by nicollo

click here to read article


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To: dp0622

When gas welders are part of the nations public health toolkit, you are screwed


21 posted on 04/17/2020 5:30:58 AM PDT by epluribus_2 (He, had the best mom - ever.)
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To: null and void

Understood.


22 posted on 04/17/2020 5:31:45 AM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but ABCNNBCBS donates every hour, every night, every day of the year.)
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To: DannyTN

so let me get this right, if 1) one has bad enough symptoms to go to the hospital to get tested, 2) tests positive for covid and does not have normal flu, bronchitis, pneumonia, and 3) is treated in a timely manner in the bests ways we know how then that hohort has a 5% chance of dying.

Without knowing how many asymptomatic cases there are (the denominator) and 1, 2, and 3 constraints then a number like 5% is at best meaningless and at worst dishonest.


23 posted on 04/17/2020 5:37:50 AM PDT by epluribus_2 (He, had the best mom - ever.)
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To: dfwgator

And the CCP only killed 200 during the Tiananmen Square uprising.


24 posted on 04/17/2020 5:53:06 AM PDT by hardspunned (MAGA, now more than ever)
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To: simi_ed

Thanks, Ed.


25 posted on 04/17/2020 7:18:41 AM PDT by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: epluribus_2

It’s neither meaningless nor dishonest. It is what it is.

And you can use it to make some rough comparisons to the flu, and realize this thing is worse than the flu.

It’s also interesting that the CFR rate keeps climbing over time. You’d think with more testing, that you would find more cases with fewer symptoms and the CFR would go down. But deaths are a lagging indicator on this.

The deaths today probably correlate to cases a week or two ago, which would drive the rate even higher.

It’s not a perfect number, but it’s far from meaningless.

And Sweden’s high rate, probably means they aren’t testing anybody but the sickest. It’s either that or they are terrible at caring for COVID patients.


26 posted on 04/17/2020 7:28:45 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: nicollo

at the start, I said Chicoms wouldn’t even worry about it unless there were a quarter million dead. 3000 wouldn’t even be noticeable in a country with a billion people and Commies in charge.


27 posted on 04/17/2020 8:05:55 AM PDT by allwrong57
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To: epluribus_2

Lol


28 posted on 04/17/2020 11:17:39 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: nicollo

I just multiply their cases and death by ten, and then add “at least.”


29 posted on 04/17/2020 12:44:57 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! (when I feel heavy metal) Wu Flu! (when I'm pins and I'm needles) Wu Flu!)
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