Estimating the true number of China’s COVID-19 cases

American Enterprise Institute ^ | 4-7-20 | Derek Scissors

[nicollo]

Key Points

* China’s COVID-19 figures are not arithmetically sensible. The Communist Party has deliberately made estimation difficult, but, outside of Wuhan city and Hubei province, cases are low by a factor of 100 or more.

* In late January, Chinese media provided information about migrant outflow from Wuhan before quarantine. Using a lower number than theirs, then conservative figures for migrants’ infection rate and time in circulation before national lockdown, generates an estimate of 2.9 million cases.

* This is partly due to China’s huge population. That population can also hide COVID-19 among tens of millions of respiratory illnesses. Along with harshly enforced censorship, the population can hide tens of thousands of deaths.

[nicollo]

Interesting to see a clearer estimate of actual cases in China from WuhanFlu

Here for pdf of the full article: www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Estimating-the-True-Number-of-Chinas-COVID-19-Cases.pdf

The author doesn't extrapolate the 2.9mm cases number into deaths, but we can figure that out on our own:

Assuming 1.0% rate = 29,000 deaths
Assuming 2.0% rate = 58,000 deaths
Assuming 3.0% rate = 87,000 deaths
Assuming 4.0% rate = 116,000 deaths

I'd say it's much higher than that.

[null and void]

Pick a percentage...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[nicollo]

Apologies... the author does consider morality:

“Mortality remains sadly unsettled, but China’s size would obscure even a high rate. Hubei’s COVID-19 mortality should be quite high, due to the obvious inability to prepare and being initially overwhelmed. It is 4.7 percent. If extended over the rest of China - which is thankfully and exaggeration — that would produce 136,000 deaths over what is now more than three months. In a typical three-month period in ex-Hubei China before COVID-19, nearly 2.5 million people died. Even that many deaths would be easily obscured.”

[dp0622]

Until we find out the real number we can play that numbers game like guessing how many marbles are in a jar. And then the one who is closest when we finally find out the real numbers wins.

[dfwgator]

China still officially way underestimates the number of dead from the 1976 Tanshang Earthquake.

[dp0622]

I never even heard of it before! I was eight but I should have read of it somewhere. Now I have to go look it up.

[dfwgator]

You’ll see a lot of familiar patterns.

[absalom01]

With China, it’s all just forensic accounting and intelligence at this point.

What did they know, and when did they know it?

Certainly by the end of December the CCP leadership knew

a) this had escaped from the virology research lab
b) it was capable of human-to-human transmission
c) it was highly infectious
d) It is highly virulent

Listening to Trump today, I think that he’s on to them, and is about to turn the screws.

We’ll see.

[dp0622]

A quarter of a million people!? Good Lord!

[dfwgator]

It was a lot more than that.

[dp0622]

Good grief!!!!

Guess?

[Meatspace]

Obviously, China has understated their COVID-19 cases and deaths.

And that should be a warning to the rest of the world that COVID-19 can infect millions of people and kill tens or hundreds of thousands.

[dfwgator]

And LOL, and if you ever had any doubt that Wikipedia is in bed with the ChiComs, there is this in their entry on the quake:

Tangshan was the most notable of several disasters in 1976, which in Chinese tradition might signal that the government had lost political legitimacy.[9] The Tangshan earthquake also came without warning, undermining a key tenet of Maoist ideology, that earthquakes could be predicted.[10] Nonetheless, the government's response showed that it was prepared and competent to quickly provide relief.[11]

[dp0622]

Incredible yeah they’re obviously very cutting edge in emergency responses

[chris37]

There are a great many whores for China that need to go.

[WASCWatch]

My guess is that the 2.9 million is off by a factor of 10.

[laplata]

“Listening to Trump today, I think that he’s on to them, and is about to turn the screws”.

He’s mad as hell at China and he’s not about to turn the other cheek.

[simi_ed]

I can cut through pages of numbers that are best-guesstimate.
China lied, people died. ChiComs need to pay! Prestige, global status, trade, exchange of data, diplomatic relations. China MUST PAY! Forget stiffing them on debt we owe, but from here forward the must be made global pariahs.
Or, elect demoncats and all will he forgiven.

My 2¢

Ed

[DannyTN]

The U.S. Case Fatality Rate now exceeds 5%.
The world CFR is at 6.7%.
And Sweden’s is at 10.6%.

[DannyTN]

The U.S. Case Fatality Rate now exceeds 5%.
The world CFR is at 6.7%.
And Sweden’s is at 10.6%.