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What does the U.S. face without CV19 mitigation?

Posted on 04/09/2020 4:53:59 PM PDT by nagant

Country Tot Cases Cases/1M Pop Tot Deaths Deaths/1M Pop Deaths/Cases
Spain 152,446 3,261 15,238 326 10.0%
Italy 143,626 2,375 18,279 302 12.7%
France 117,749 1,804 12,210 187 10.4%
USA 462,391 1,397 16,454 50 3.6%
Germany 116,801 1,394 2,451 29 2.1%
UK 65,077 959 7,978 118 12.3%
Iran 66,220 788 4,110 49 6.2%
World 1,593,515 204 95,047 12.2 6.0%
S. Korea 10,423 203 204 4 2.0%

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: buonasera; fudgiethewhale; hangry; haveasnickers; hugsarefree; hungryhungryhippo; mathiscool; theloveboat
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The over-12% death rates among CV19 patients in Italy and the UK represent the death rate among CV19 patients in countries whose medical systems have been overwhelmed. Granted, Italy and the UK have inferior healthcare systems.

Given that CV19 is about 4 times as easy to transmit as a flu virus it's easy to see how it could run rampant without mitigation. In case this were to happen in the United States it would overwhelm our far superior medical system and we would be looking at an overall population death rate of 12%.

We each rely on each other to keep this from happening.

1 posted on 04/09/2020 4:53:59 PM PDT by nagant
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To: nagant

What kind of BS did you just invent? One logical flaw after another. Fallacy on top of fallacy.


2 posted on 04/09/2020 4:59:27 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: nagant

Don’t forget that in the US, if you have a heart attack, and the EMT has COVID-19, and you die, the cause of death will be listed as COVID-19.


3 posted on 04/09/2020 4:59:48 PM PDT by jrestrepo (See you all in Galt's gulch)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

Because you’re the expert on this?


4 posted on 04/09/2020 5:01:21 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith..)
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To: nagant

Did you actually think about this or even run your own numbers?
12% death on the overall population?
330,000,000 x 12% = 39,600,000

Care to moderate your insanity?


5 posted on 04/09/2020 5:02:28 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
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To: jrestrepo

Don’t forget that in the US, if you have a heart attack, and the EMT has COVID-19, and you die, the cause of death will be listed as COVID-19.


And scores of people forget how to read.

The scene you illustrate is as connected to reality as is the medias claim that President Trump called the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic a hoax.


6 posted on 04/09/2020 5:03:13 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: nagant
"COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far," Ghebreyesus said. That means containment is still possible, he added. "We don't even talk about containment for seasonal flu — it's just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19," Ghebreyesus said. "We don't do contact tracing for seasonal flu, but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives." Coronavirus Compared To Flu
7 posted on 04/09/2020 5:03:35 PM PDT by Kalija (I said.)
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To: metmom

No because I passed 5th grade math?

But given the level of reading now found on this forum by some at various times... that may be expert level intelligence.


8 posted on 04/09/2020 5:03:53 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
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To: nagant

I’m pretty sure your figures are out of date by several days.


9 posted on 04/09/2020 5:04:29 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: nagant
Please see my post on the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world, adjusting for timing and population differences.

As I wrote elsewhere, the US is right where you'd expect:

-Those countries with adjusted low case counts like Austria, Portugal, and Denmark have dutiful citizens that respond well to the demands of the common good over their individuality.

-Those countries with high case counts have surrendered their individuality and national identity to mob rule.

It's a bit like gun control: we’ll never have zero cases in America because we’re crazy individualists who distrust authority and love freedom. That means we'll usually run a little hotter on things like crime. But we won’t be like the UK and Italy and Belgium and their yuge relative death count.

10 posted on 04/09/2020 5:04:48 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: metmom

Are you a Chicken Freeper extolling the virtue of experts? Have you been trusting the “Expert’s Model’s”? Please share the names of the experts that you believe.

Don’t need to be an expert to be competent in basic math and common since.


11 posted on 04/09/2020 5:08:20 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
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To: nagant

In case this were to happen in the United States it would overwhelm our far superior medical system and we would be looking at an overall population death rate of 12%.


So are you predicting that the infection rate will reach 100%?

I do know the ‘herd immunity’ theory assumed an infection rate of 68% for the particular disease. The flu, albeit with vaccines in place, generally doesn’t top 10%. I suspect that unmitigated, and assuming the new treatments were to fall through in regards fatalities, the maximum infection rate would be between those bounds.


12 posted on 04/09/2020 5:09:26 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

deaths per cases is meaningless.

deaths with covid are meaningless.

sort that out and come again.


13 posted on 04/09/2020 5:10:24 PM PDT by MAGAthon ( Fauc)
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To: lepton; nagant

I’m pretty sure your figures are out of date by several days.


ok. After rechecking, they appear to be from this morning - which is why they didn’t match what I was recalling.


14 posted on 04/09/2020 5:12:34 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

At first, judging from the SARS spread, I thought sunshine and warmth would mitigate CV19. That turned out not to be true. I also thought, because of the lies which China published that our overall death rate would be less than 1%. That’s what we’ve seen so far .....but only under lockdown mitigation. Because of mitigation only a small percentage of Americans have been exposed.

These numbers seem pretty unreasonable to me too. However, they are what they are.


15 posted on 04/09/2020 5:12:36 PM PDT by nagant
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To: nagant

They are not what you say they are. Your logic is deeply flawed.


16 posted on 04/09/2020 5:15:31 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
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To: lepton

‘The scene you illustrate is as connected to reality as is the medias claim that President Trump called the Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic a hoax.’

yes, the comment is over the top, but you know as well as everyone else that the books are being cooked on Covid deaths...


17 posted on 04/09/2020 5:15:32 PM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: jrestrepo

“Don’t forget that in the US, if you have a heart attack, and the EMT has COVID-19, and you die, the cause of death will be listed as COVID-19.”
Right, I read that on the internet, so it must be true. If your grandmother’s gardener’s second cousin had Covd19 blah blah blah


18 posted on 04/09/2020 5:15:43 PM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
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To: lepton

“I’m pretty sure your figures are out of date by several days.”

As noted, they aren’t my numbers. They are the current numbers from a generally accepted go-to website for CV19 statistics. The only numbers I supplied were in the “Deaths/Cases” column. They were derived from the other columns.

The numbers speak for themselves.


19 posted on 04/09/2020 5:19:13 PM PDT by nagant
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To: DoodleBob

“because we’re crazy individualists who distrust authority and love freedom.“

Yep in a truly free country you need to value freedom above safety.


20 posted on 04/09/2020 5:23:47 PM PDT by walkingdead (By the time you realize this is not worth reading, it will be too late....)
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