Posted on 03/31/2020 11:20:14 AM PDT by Dacula
President Trump & Coronavirus Task Force Briefing 3/30/20
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“I wonder if they’ve “modeled” suicides..”
My wife said the volume of calls to suicide hotlines for some cities has doubled iirc.
This has gone on over two hours, and its the same every day. Trump’s used to this (think his rallies), but for the Veep, Fauci and Birx, it has to be grueling. The time has to be cut just to keep all from exhaustion. On the other hand, except from the usual suspects, some of the questions are really good.
You are absolutely correct.
The only person who does not look exhausted is Dr. Fauci. I do not like him. He seems to have an agenda beyond what PDJT and most Americans want.
President says this is a dark topic, very serious, but also very interesting. Some reporter says it’s almost tomorrow!
Over!
Dr. Birx looks less run down today than some others. Fauci looks younger than he is. Pence is a machine.
I do not understand allowing Yamiche Alcindor from PBS into the press room. Beyond what she was involved in during and after Sunday’s briefing, I read that she has since gone on TV explicitly talking about some members of the press working together to get Trump.
I like Dr. Birx.
I really tried to give Fauci a chance but he says stuff that’s out of his lane, going into pep talk mode like he be the President or something.
Plus his ass kissing letters to Hillary kinda showed his true colors IMO.
> I wonder why? Is it because he now has more supply chain and medical info to work with that he did? Is it because he knows something we don’t - IOW, an ace up his sleeve.
The answer could be both.
I do think Trump has the advantage over most people of being accustomed to working with regulatory agencies, big businesses and small businesses. These are areas of expertise that most if not all reporters and Democrat politicians lack. So for the time being, I think that he is in the position of seeing most stuff coming from miles away.
He is also displaying lots of energy relative to his presumptive opponent Joe Biden who has virtually disappeared from public view. The media cannot cover this up. Cuomo is now a distant second to Trump but even Cuomo has the recent baggage (which was touched upon in today’s briefing) that New York is in a relatively bad position because of lack of preparation and the lack of preparation is because of lack of leadership (that is, because of Cuomo’s failed leadership). Trump went over Cuomo personally really easy (from what I saw and I did not see it all yet), but holy moly, IMHO it is there for everyone to see. For example, why doesn’t Acosta pick on Cuomo’s failed leadership as the primary reason for the estimated 100K-220K dead, instead of Trump? (sheesh)
> The USA is NOT Italy. The entire USA is NOT even metro New York City. How many cities in the USA even have subways which are a major place where a virus can spread.
One of the doctors IIRC stated that New York seemed to be following the Italy trajectory*. (Ouch...)
* and at a different point in the briefing, they (Birx in particular is in my recollection which might be wrong) were illustrating that New York was leading if not defining the national mitigation response and so the current working mitagion model projection.
> However being from NY he is smart enough to know that NY is extremely different than the rest of the country modeling the entire nation after NY is a HUGE mistake!!!
I was left with the impression that this was not a choice, but that the model is being driven (as much as possible) by the data (as the doctors stated).
The data is that the overwhelming number of USA cases and the overwhelming number of USA deaths are now and will for the forseeable near term future (that is, in all probability, no matter what people do or do not do) that the model covers, are mathematically dominated by the numbers coming out of New York, and specifically, the New York metropolitan area, defined by NYC, adjoining areas of New Jersey, and to a somewhat lesser extent, adjoining areas of Connecticut. IOW only a miracle now could change the model and the role of NY/NYC numbers in the model.
Take for example California. All of us in California could jump up and down, wear masks, spray each other with disinfectant, stay at home, or perhaps even not. At this point in time, the model projection trajectory has already mostly been set by choices made at the state level weeks ago.
This is not to say that the model might be tweaked in the future. However, the model is the best indicator that they have at the moment for making decisions going forward. They are forced to make decisions based on imperfect data. (This is of course par for the course in business and public policy.) I imagine they will continue to tweak the model assumptions and turn the crank as time goes on and the information coming in make such tweaks warranted.
I think you heard correctly. Dr. Birx implied that the virus would roll over the entire country in a wave, beginning in New York (me: the NYC metro area ?) and then moving west. For several reasons, I do not think that any area will be hit as hard as NYC. I also hope that NYC is not hit as hard as the dire predictions seem to say right now.
Also Trump did say that they are leaving as many decisions to the individual states as possible. I suspect most states already know that New York containing as it does NYC is a special case, and they are already taking that into consideration when addressing their specific state strategies. Trump did mention that the feds would step in if they sensed that the states were going off course too much (in their judgment). And it does seem that individual states are adopting different strategies— nobody is doing one size fits all strategy or suggesting that that should be done at this time.
I don’t like Fauci either.
He said that it will take several MONTHS before the PROVEN effective treatment of hydroxycholoroquine (spelling?) has these clinical trials that he keeps touting.
I think Fauci has an agenda that includes NOT having this gamechanging medicine available to the masses. For whatever reason Fauci wants the pandemic to rage on!
> I think you heard correctly. Dr. Birx implied that the virus would roll over the entire country in a wave, beginning in New York (me: the NYC metro area ?) and then moving west. For several reasons, I do not think that any area will be hit as hard as NYC. I also hope that NYC is not hit as hard as the dire predictions seem to say right now.
I suppose that could still happen. The confidence interval seemed fairly wide, perhaps accommodating differing scenarios. One scenario could be that NYC is an anomaly because it is so densely populated. Another, different scenario is that the NYC situation could be replicated in other densely populated cities. (Personally I’m not certain at this time although it could have been in the briefing somewhere. I am just going from my memory right at the moment and I missed seeing a few minutes of the briefing here and there due to other things going on where I am at right now.) The sense I am left with at this moment is that NYC numerically will be the hardest hit area, due to a combination of prior exposure, population density, and size. What might be getting the most focus are numerical expectations: specifically, where will the most hospitalizations be expected to occur in the immediate future. At the detail level, this will change somewhat every day (NYC will likely dominate the national numbers for the near term future). Then, provide the numerically proportional combined resources to those areas where the most hospitalizations are expected to occur in the immediate future. Then, the next day, recalibrate the model based on updated inputs, and repeat the drill every subsequent day, until the worst is verified to be passed. Over time, the largest influxes of hospitalizations, including those in NYC, will diminish, possibly leaving smaller influxes which will then of course still need to be mopped up. One would also want to make certain (IMHO) that so-called flyover country is not left entirely bereft of support to deal with their own local emergency situations (eg hospitalizations).
Trump was talking about a different emergency scheme of distribution than what might be a typical emergency distribution scheme. For example, Trump wants ventilators to go direct from the point of origin (manufacturers) DIRECTLY to the hospitals (points of critical need, destination). The reason is that this is the most efficient way to perform the task at hand. Trump is claiming that it can be done with the delivery systems now in place. Trump is claiming that if the situation requires it, the military and/or other federal resources will be used for delivery. The reporters seemed to have some difficulty wrapping their heads around the concept. Also if Trump is correct some governors seemed to have difficulty wrapping their heads around the concept. Some governors (and some reporters) seem to presume that state level warehousing and state level stockpiling is the obvious best distribution scheme. Trump said that people were not always seeing eye to eye on everything but that most people were getting along and that some governors were happier (in so many words) than other governors. Trump was saying that the feds are keeping a very close watch at the local hospital level to see what supplies were actually needed, and would make certain that each hospital would get what supplies were actually needed as dictated by the emergency at hand at that hospital.
This reminds me that the governor of Connecticut had just been on CNN prior to the start of the briefing (interviewed by Jake Tapper) complaining that he only had 50 ventilators, and that he felt Trump and the feds were actively and passively interfering with his state getting the ventilators it needed in its emergency stockpile. His concerns seemed IMHO to be answered by the briefing, although he may belong to the category of people highlighted by Trump as never being satisfied and always wanting more than what they could get.
I think what Trump is not saying is that computers and routing/inventory software are very well positioned to help keep the supply chain working adequately during the emergency. This is a large scale, somewhat complex application of routing and just in time delivery systems, with multiple servers, multiple queues, and multiple client delivery destinations. This is an industrial engineering and operations research type of application. There is lots of theory and systems that can be used for this type of application. Most people are not familiar with industrial engineering and operations research (why should they be? it is a specialty), and so they react with fear and confusion (or worse, if someone is dishonestly refusing to come up to speed on this stuff and keeps harping about lack of stockpiles as if it is still 1944 or whatever). Trump knows about this stuff, and it does not frighten him. Also, and equally important, Trump’s team knows about this stuff, and it does not frighten them. One possible positive thing that the naysayer MSM reporters could do is (1) to get into the details of the distribution scheme and report on how it is supposed to work and (2) report on whether it is or is not working as intended. As we can see, sometimes the reporters just parrot the confusion and panic that some of the state leaders have about this.
There does seem to be a valid concern about testing. In addition to the above considerations as applied to testing, they are switching from an older, “antiquated” testing system to a newer, faster point-of-delivery style testing system. I believe that that might be (?) the Abbott system. It can reputedly yield results in 15-20 minutes. Perhaps it involves the toaster-sized devices such as what they had on the table next to the podium at yesterday’s briefing. Dr. Birx said that many (hundreds? thousands?) of the devices were already delivered but were sitting relatively idle, while old style (slower) testing was still piling up in central processing laboratories. Dr. Birx said that this was a result of inertia at the organizational level and that it typically took a few days or so for everyone involved in testing to switch over from an older and antiquated system to a newer and better system.
They also talked about the mask issue, which seems to be a bit of a medical technology hot potato at the moment... Trump suggested the use of objects such as scarves at the local level. There seems to be a continuing shortage of masks at the point of care locations, and an ongoing need for masks just about everywhere.
I know the answer, it doesn’t.
We switched to the Whitehouse itself, when the NBC lady broke in saying “we’re going to move on now”
All local NBC, ABC, CBS either cut it off or didn’t cover it here. Gutter channel water
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