Posted on 03/30/2020 2:55:56 AM PDT by dalight
When considering that possibility patterns in CDC’s regular ILI (Influenza Like Illness) surveillance data become interesting. I’ve taken their data, and applied my meager Excel skills to chart out some things that surprised me. Going into this, I expected to see mortality rates somewhere bump. Prior to January we weren’t looking for this virus. We’ve only had useful testing capability for a few weeks now. Given the information we have on disease progression, I assumed that there would be an upward trend in Pneumonia mortality as without looking for and testing for SARS-COV-2, victims should have been classified as deaths due to pneumonia. So I charted it, with the last 6 years of data published by CDC.
CDC calls week 40 of a year the beginning of the flu season, so all my charts are set to begin in week 40 of one year and end in week 39 of the next, showing years as flu seasons.
There is the customary increase at week 1, I assume related to holiday festivities and travel. However the 2019-2020 season shows week by week pneumonia mortality to be low compared to the last few years, which is not what I expected. What I truly did not expect was the sharp decline over the last few weeks.
I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.
(Excerpt) Read more at accordingtohoyt.com ...
Maybe Chloroquine is being prescribed for assumed Coronavirus cases without testing. Could it be this drug helps with the more common flu as well?
Wuhan flu response has SAVED more than 20,000 American lives including the COVID 19 cases. and one expects the trend to continue and increase.
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How can anything like that be quantified?
It’s similar to Obama saying how many jobs he saved.
B.S.
No.. just people are being virus sensitive and the social distancing is really having an effect on common flu cases just the same as the Corona Virus.
The effect of Chloroquine hasn’t even begun to impact these numbers. It isn’t used for common flues, yet.
Let’s take Italy as a worst case scenario for the US.Italy is by far the worst case example of deaths per million with 10,000 deaths reported due to the virus. ( 180 deaths per million) I also assume that Italy will see another 10,000 or so deaths before this is over.
If the US is several weeks behind Italy and we use Italy’s model as a guide ie assuming the worst case, then we can expect nearly 60,000 deaths in the US in a few weeks time and another 60,000 deaths to follow or 120,000 total deaths.
Of course this makes a lot of assumptions but most of them err on the side of the worst case That is why Italy is chosen, not Europe as a whole or some other particular country therein.
120,000 is a lot of people even though many might have very serious and life threatening illnesses already.
I’m ever the optimist however and hope and pray for a result of a best case scenario or one somewhere in the middle.
I was wondering when the drop in literally just the flu would show up as a side effect of hand washing and social distancing...Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
The false positive rate was 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.
I am misreading the Flu chart.. only about 5000 less deaths so far..
Somethings flukey for sure.
It’s not bull, the chart quantifies it unless your eyes are broken. The unusual part is the drop in mortality for all causes. It is, perhaps, just a temporary reprieve and will return to the mean several months down the road. But to do so means there will need to be a spike.
Bingo! Finally someone accepts the data, and proposes a hypothesis that is based on a plausible mechanism and is consistent with everything we know, assuming no less and no more than that.
Dr. Fauci - JANUARY 26, 2020 Interview! Americans do not be worried... https://soundcloud.com/john-catsimatidis/dr-anthony-fauci-1-26-20?fbclid=IwAR0CiDJIsh3-ZXovl1-eBi_UjpNjMKceiLebboBU4z7BkM5DIyzj8jiBECI
I would think the drop is related to those of us at risk who ramped up our precautions more than we normally do during flu season. We are out in public a lot less by a large percentage.
BINGO - on the money.. We should be looking at what is rational to do every year in the face of this whole event when we come out. And, the beginning of flu season should become the beginning of mask and washing season.. probably.
Fauci is an expert in a lot of fields. Answering leading questions from a hate-filled media is not one of them.
The chart is tracking deaths-per-week for the various flu seasons. Not aggregate deaths.
the graph indicates a change for the better began to happen about 21 days ago (march 9).
formal mandatory shelter in place started in SF Bay about 21 days ago (march 17).
i personally started wearing a mask around March 5 (no specific attribution, just personal choice, but undoubtedly influenced by current events headlines of that timeframe).
as i recall, airlines were beginning to fly empty starting around march 9, when businesses started to opt for teleconferences over in person conferences.
perhaps some of the policies will become permanent?
Stole that from someone who gave a version of it to me in a reply and I liked it....no matter what, "they" will try to tell us how many they saved, even though there will be no direct evidence of such numbers, so maybe we ignore the coming recession and possible depression...gonna have them chanting a version of "Better Red than Dead" in the streets in praise ...
>> It’s similar to Obama saying how many jobs he saved.
That bastard claimed he saved my family after terminating our preferred insurance.
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