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The other calculation here, which has yet to be put into the public eyes....getting business operations back up and running (production). I’ve yet to see anything much.

Go look around Europe right now....80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made. The warehouse operations probably have enough to handle normal purchases up to mid-summer. At that point, if the production cycle hasn’t started up, I see vast shortages of refrigerator units. Same for air conditioners.

If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.

[If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.]

The estimates we’re getting out of Wuhan top out in the 40,000 range after subtracting run-of-the-mill mortality. My guess for the whole country might top out at 500K, with the 200K minimum as a conservative number just to match Italy’s. The number would be depressed by the fact that the local population has been exposed to similar bugs, and presumably has more resistance than non-Chinese populations - they have been dining on exotic critters for thousands of years for medicinal purposes (!). It would be bumped up by the fairly low ICU bed count for China, vs Italy:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/reference/traditional-chinese-medicine/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

A complete guess based on Italy’s ~10K number today multiplied by 20 to size the number up from Italy’s 60m population yields 200K.

Go look around Europe right now....80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made. The warehouse operations probably have enough to handle normal purchases up to mid-summer. At that point, if the production cycle hasn’t started up, I see vast shortages of refrigerator units. Same for air conditioners.

If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.

thanks so much for your fact-less panic-based screed. it was fun

80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made.

That is the problem right there. The EU needs a tariff those imports now. The EU needs to stop de industrialization before it is too late, like the USA did foolishly.