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Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure
Radio Free Asia ^ | 2020-03-27 | Qiao Long and Lau Siu-fung Translated and edited by Luisetta Mudie

Posted on 03/27/2020 11:42:57 PM PDT by Zhang Fei

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Estimates are of 40,000 dead in Wuhan alone, over the course of the pandemic.
1 posted on 03/27/2020 11:42:57 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
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To: Zhang Fei

I can’t believe China would lie about such a thing.


2 posted on 03/27/2020 11:45:54 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Dear Mr. Kotter, #Epsteindidntkillhimself - Signed, Epstein's Mother)
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To: Zhang Fei

The one calculation that you can’t inject into this....the normal monthly deaths in Wuhan (just in general, from cancer and murder to food poisoning and old age). With a city of 11-million, you’d figure at least 5,000 folks would have passed away monthly without the aid of the virus.


3 posted on 03/27/2020 11:54:48 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: fieldmarshaldj


I can’t believe China would lie about such a thing.

...or any government, about anything.

I gave up after the warren report


4 posted on 03/27/2020 11:59:02 PM PDT by 867V309 (Lock Her Up)
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To: pepsionice

[The one calculation that you can’t inject into this....the normal monthly deaths in Wuhan (just in general, from cancer and murder to food poisoning and old age). With a city of 11-million, you’d figure at least 5,000 folks would have passed away monthly without the aid of the virus.]


No telling what the Wuhan deaths are, normally, without access to official Chinese stats but deaths for China as a whole were 7.14 per 1000 population in 2019. Wuhan has 11m people, so monthly deaths would be 7.14 x 11,000 / 12 = 6,545. Assuming the numbers cover a 3 month period, and the low estimate of 42,000 urns over that period, that’s 42,000 - 3 x 6,545 = 22,365 excess deaths over the normal run-of-the-mill death numbers, which is likely explicable by the covid-19 pandemic. And that’s just in Wuhan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Table_of_births_and_deaths_1950%E2%80%932019

What about the rest of the province? And the rest of China? My guess is a minimum of the low hundreds of thousands. Based on the numbers we’re seeing out of Italy, and merely multiplying by 20 to size up to China’s population, I’d say a minimum of 200,000 deaths.


5 posted on 03/28/2020 12:06:26 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

“COVID-10??”


6 posted on 03/28/2020 12:08:44 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Vote Giant Meteor in 2020)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

i can’t believe communists would lie about anything. /sarc


7 posted on 03/28/2020 12:10:32 AM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: pepsionice

I’m still betting 40,000 is on the low side..minus your 5,000 a month.

Probably 50k after taking everything into account.

They were burning day AND night.


8 posted on 03/28/2020 12:11:26 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

What are the odds? :)

i only give our government the benefit off the doubt 1 out of 10 times

China tells the truth 1 out of 100


9 posted on 03/28/2020 12:12:03 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: Zhang Fei

The other calculation here, which has yet to be put into the public eyes....getting business operations back up and running (production). I’ve yet to see anything much.

Go look around Europe right now....80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made. The warehouse operations probably have enough to handle normal purchases up to mid-summer. At that point, if the production cycle hasn’t started up, I see vast shortages of refrigerator units. Same for air conditioners.

If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.


10 posted on 03/28/2020 12:18:34 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: pepsionice

[If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.]


The estimates we’re getting out of Wuhan top out in the 40,000 range after subtracting run-of-the-mill mortality. My guess for the whole country might top out at 500K, with the 200K minimum as a conservative number just to match Italy’s. The number would be depressed by the fact that the local population has been exposed to similar bugs, and presumably has more resistance than non-Chinese populations - they have been dining on exotic critters for thousands of years for medicinal purposes (!). It would be bumped up by the fairly low ICU bed count for China, vs Italy:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/reference/traditional-chinese-medicine/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

A complete guess based on Italy’s ~10K number today multiplied by 20 to size the number up from Italy’s 60m population yields 200K.


11 posted on 03/28/2020 12:28:15 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

When I was in the USAF we had a term for what is going on with China’s reporting on their virus, “pencil whipping”.


12 posted on 03/28/2020 12:43:58 AM PDT by Stevenfo
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To: Stevenfo

[When I was in the USAF we had a term for what is going on with China’s reporting on their virus, “pencil whipping”.]


Stateside, and probably throughout Europe, because of the special funding for covid-19 cases, I expect more causes of death are being coded as part of the pandemic in order to get more funding to cover chronic medical facility budget shortfalls or just to get on the gravy train. Died from falling down the stairs and tested positive for covid-19? From the hospital’s perspective, this person might have died from covid-19, not a broken neck. I would expect to see decreased mortality from all other causes for as long as Uncle Sam covers the bill for the covid-19 pandemic.

We subsidize the bills for this bug, so we get more reported cases. Xi Jinping punishes people for counting new cases, so he gets zero.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package
[Hospitals: There is $100 billion for hospitals responding to the coronavirus.]


13 posted on 03/28/2020 1:04:08 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

I don’t have a problem believing China lied, but these stories
don’t really get specific. They mention what things seem like
but don’t mention actual confirmed numbers.

It’s not that I believe the government. It’s just that I am
asked to sign on to other numbers (guesses) I can’t confirm.

It really bothers me when folks curse that the government for
not being forthcoming, and then they ask me to sign on to any
old “seems like” story that pops up.

I can’t verify the government’s story.

I can’t verify these stories.

If I’m not going to sucker for the government’s story, why
would I want to sucker for someone else’s story?

One of the things that has bothered me the most about what
has gone on, is that everyone trashed the government, but
were then willing to take anything offered up as proof positive.

The only thing was, there was no proof on that side either.


14 posted on 03/28/2020 1:34:53 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Hi! My name is Larry, and I'm a COVID-19FearPhobicAholic. Hi Larry, welcome. We've been there.)
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To: pepsionice


Go look around Europe right now....80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made. The warehouse operations probably have enough to handle normal purchases up to mid-summer. At that point, if the production cycle hasn’t started up, I see vast shortages of refrigerator units. Same for air conditioners.

If Wuhan lost 250,000, and the other major cities lost similar numbers....major production will not start up for a while, and the replacement workers will produce sub-standard products for the next year or two.

thanks so much for your fact-less panic-based screed.         it was fun


15 posted on 03/28/2020 2:06:23 AM PDT by 867V309 (Lock Her Up)
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To: Zhang Fei

first nine topics at link pertain to the Wuhan cremations:

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/cremations/index


16 posted on 03/28/2020 2:07:16 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

This is impossible.

The FluBros told me to trust the ChiComs.


17 posted on 03/28/2020 4:17:30 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Messaging to Snowflakes: They stole it from Bernie AGAIN!)
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To: pepsionice
80-percent of refrigerators sold are Chinese-made.

That is the problem right there. The EU needs a tariff those imports now. The EU needs to stop de industrialization before it is too late, like the USA did foolishly.

18 posted on 03/28/2020 4:23:53 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn....)
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To: Zhang Fei

bttt


19 posted on 03/28/2020 4:29:33 AM PDT by Pajamajan ( Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord fr everything y have. Don't ? wait do it today.)
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To: Zhang Fei

“Estimates are of 40,000 dead in Wuhan alone, over the course of the pandemic.”

That’s a start. I wonder how many there died of the flu last year?


20 posted on 03/28/2020 4:42:06 AM PDT by BobL
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