Posted on 03/26/2020 12:10:32 AM PDT by aquila48
For those wondering how long they'll have to be in quarantine because of the COVID-19 respiratory disease, the question for those in the US may not be how long, but how many times.
Work posted on the medRxive pre-print server Tuesday by a group of researchers at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston suggests that multiple targeted periods of "social distancing" of various kinds will likely be necessary for the US before any vaccine is found for the disease.
There's a tension in fighting COVID-19: So-called herd immunity needs to be built up, which requires that the disease be allowed to spread to some extent, for without exposure, that immunity will never be built. But the disease must not spread so much that it overwhelms the US's medical resources.
In "Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic," authors Stephen Iissler, Christine Tedijanto, Marc Lipsitch, and Yonatan Grad of the Chan School write that "a single period of social distancing will not be sufficient."
Paradoxically, going into an intense quarantine with nothing to follow it can actually be counter-productive.
Without repeated intervals of distancing, "there was a resurgence of infection when the simulated social distancing measures were lifted" in the model scenarios they ran.
The authors found that a resurgence could happen even after especially arduous periods of distancing, such as a 20-week period of social distancing. "The social distancing is so effective that virtually no population immunity is built."
(Excerpt) Read more at zdnet.com ...
so now we really are like mice in a maze....opening one shute for us while closing another so we can find our food.....and it’ll all be done by Harvard elites,many who only made it to Harvard thru donation/parentage/or skin color....
Yup total bullshit . They just want to keep scaring people til the election. It’s over , the commie cough isn’t that bad. It’s been overhyped by the media. Big surprise.
I am sorry - I have had enough of anything coming from Harvard.
We could do other things like put Hand sanitizer stations at the entrance to every business and ask people to use it when entering and exiting.
Social pressure could be exerted on the Herd to enforce this use.
What good is saving lives if those lives are going to lost due to the collapse of the economy.
Get back to wor if you’re healthy, and turn off all media reporting. There is so much misinformation now that people don’t know what to do.. We are heading for a national nervous breakdown.
I have not seen stories of increased domestic abuse, child abuse, divorce or suicide, but I figure that stuff is happening. People seem to be getting really stressed and a lot of people aren’t used to being around their own family 24/7. National nervous breakdown indeed.
I see an opportunity for advanced infrared cameras to pick out people showing fever signs in a crowd. This is eminently do-able.
No actually not BS. It is what happened during the 1918 flu.
In fact, it is said the quarantines in some areas were too effective and that the resurgence was due to that.
My concern level regarding catching today’s Covid-19 are real, so is my concern over all this isolation of a population. Everything I have read, this is one nasty bug to die from, but at some point they are saying 80% or more of us will get it. It is simply that contagious.
The flattening the curve has little to do with keeping people from catching the virus, it is simply an attempt to slow the virus down and not overwhelm the health care system. It is this part that they are not explaining very well at all. You just don’t want to get this as it goes to peak.
If it’s. Not sporadic today’s #new deaths is an indicator it is turning. We need to see if it’s persistent tomorrow. We have already “spread the disease out” geographically by being just such a big country with so much “flyover zone” what we have are umpteen separate epidemics running their own individual epidemics. At first it seemed to me the disease would continue it’s expected path as if the country were “one”. What we have will be epidemics around each major city. We will ultimately have to have “hard” quarantines around each major urban center as they each enter the exponential phase. I do believe people will start taking isolation seriously as it dawns on people this is really happening.
So we are catching a major break here. We really could top out Monday with 2,000 to 3,000 total deaths. Major break.
It could contribute but the asymptomatic will walk right by. That phase of the illness last an average of 5 days, from what we read.
There is no question they would like to which is why we need to survive, en mass. Intact.
True. But it’s a herd immunity-like approach leveraging technology.
You nailed it, cherry...
This first time was a trial, testing the willingness of the American people to be blatantly controlled by corrupt politicians and a complicit leftist media.
It’s success assures us it is a tool that will be used, again and again.
Sad indeed.
“Herd Immunity” as a strategy like Denmark is doing (which means “do nothing”) will produce tragic results. We have umpteen separate epidemics and we are fighting as hard as we can. Eventually we may get to where enough people have had it there are no new customers but let’s say that point is “half the country”. We really don’t want to get there as a strategy. These new interferon type drugs the smart guys are working on, something like the idea of Plaquenil but an actual, working, better drug. Sounds like they are looking at a couple. Space program type effort may get to tool out in months, deploy it, etc. we simply cannot let it get to “herd immunity” because the implication is a major fraction of the population gets it.
Those deaths are going to be a tragedy. There may be a lot of people who can’t see this through to the end.
Fair enough, and maybe it was a poor analogy. I still think the idea has merit.
We have partially succeed in geographically “blunting” the disease if the # new deaths holds. Notic it hardly went up yesterday. If we have less than #300 new deaths tomorrow we are at the top. Since we won’t see isolation strategy work until Monday or several days thereafter I’ve may get some good news early next week. But the # of total deaths is still going to be a function of “all those who get it”. IOW, the # of dead won’t change (from the disease) but we could gain a little control and prevent ER meltdowns like they are apparently having in NYC and New Orleans. If we can hold it to some low level, a few thousand a month, we may have to call that “success”. Like Brix said, if we just let this run wild the result would be incomprehensble. Total chaos.
I may have been joking about condoning off hot spots with the 82nd Airborne but if we don’t have solid control of this beast by next Wednesday I do believe we will see that.
I think the mistake we made is we watched China have an outbreak like every two years and felt it was just China’s problem. Without “Western Sanitation” it couldn’t come here. We were terribly wrong. The USAMRIID guys might have had a clue but it’s like they aren’t part of “Medicine”. No doctor has seen those guys since Med School. They go to different meetings, etc. the only one I have met over the decades was a guy I went to the Advanced Course with. And everybody sort of considered them to be “seeing bogeymen everywhere”. Generally this family has had “no clinical significance” in the US, ever. It’s just been the “perfect storm”. Now we are seeing surveillance photos of Chinese looking people spreading saliva on doorknobs and such. Their own citizens may have decided to have a “private war” with the West, who knows. The Rats publicly announced proudly they would attend Trump Rallies as a bioweapon, why wouldn’t Chinese privately decide to do the same?
The Chinese government effectively did choose to engage in a biowar by suppressing reporting on the disease and letting their people from the affected region travel the globe.
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