Posted on 03/17/2020 4:34:32 PM PDT by gas_dr
No worries.
I meant what I said, about keeping you and ALL first responders in my prayers.
Stay safe and please keep us posted on all that you see and hear.
I see your point, but I disagree. The populations affected thus far in the United States are that of South Korea and the other countries. There are vast swaths of rural counties unaffected yielding a relatively normalized population. In my home state (I have access to the immediately updated numbers) Less than half of the counties are reporting cases, albeit rural counties.
I respectfully disagree and think this has been accounted for.
the best numbers are the deaths as you say. All the rest are estimates. Because most people recover, the #1 problem is how many will die, so projecting this is the goal This days to a number appears to be one way. We’ll see.
I’m looking at plotting weekly deaths on a semi-log chart. For the US the numbers aren’t old enough yet to project and compare to the regular flu and the H1N1 pandemic.
In a few weeks, both should give us some answers.
I sincerely hope you are right, because that would be great. My governor (Fauxgan) would then hopefully lift the statewide (and premature, IMO) shutdown on bars, restaurants (takeout still allowed), casinos, gyms and movie theaters. Beats sitting at home all the time.
FD: I’m not a “flu bro.”
Did it fit your toe properly? I’ve had complaints about the string being too tight...
I suppose.
But I did think them.
Although I strive, I’m still not the person my dog thought I was...
Its a little tender, but what of it, I am just as dead either way :-)
Nobody respects the anesthesiologist until it's time to go "under". Trust me, an absolute expert took care of me when I had my colonoscopy and another did when I had my shoulder repaired.
Oddly, the recovery room nurse was surprised at how lucid I was after my shoulder work. He probably wasn't aware of my experiences at being semi-conscious on occasion (mostly alcohol-induced stupidity in my younger years). He showed me my charts, and I admired the doctor's work. The stitches were excellent!
So the reported cases are in the population dense areas but population density is not a factor. Makes perfect sense.
My governor (Sisolak) just shut down the state for 30 days.
Casinos closed. Schools closed. Theaters closed. Bars closed. Restaurants curbside, pick up or delivery only. Churches, find a way to deliver spiritual sustenance without personal attendance. Funerals, minimal number of attendees. All nonessential businesses closed. Unemployment, apply on line. Food banks, boxed food and gloves.
(Didn’t hear anything about the brothels though...)
Bah! ANYBODY can put you under. The anesthesiologist can bring you back!
in my state, Washington, everything is closed down except they let the weed stores stay open...figures....
Come on man/woman! No wild death rate prediction! Or a total fatalities for the USA prediction? Disappointing! ;-) Just kidding. Thanks for keeping it on the calmer/civil/scientific side!
If I had to place a bet on what the numbers will look like in 6 months, I would have to say “well past the bell curve peak”...hopefully flattened by the USA “social-distancing” effort that falls between China’s communist draconian lockdown, and the lack of early lock-down in Italy and the UK. With a fatality rate of somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% and a bit less than 1 million cases. That is my “back of the napkin” amateur guess based on the #’s I am seeing so far. For a more scientific/statistical approach like yours, here are some to ponder:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Virus denier!!!
Ha! Indeed! I have even put myself "under". But being brought back, and in a timely fashion is a work of art.
True story - my colonoscopy was done while I was under (hopefully, that's all that was done) and upon waking, I heard the doc say "This one's done". It was like perfect timing.
The anesthesiologist is the race driver of surgery, hitting the perfect apex in the curve, and accelerating out of that curve for maximum speed on the straightaway. On every lap!
Utility disconnects, suspended. Eviction proceedings, suspended.
Thanks for sharing this information, very informative .
:)
Nevada right? Wow, Vegas & Reno and millions/billions in revenue at stake over 56 cases of COVID-19 in NV...hope he is right and not just grandstanding for 'rat flack at PDJT. One wonders what the reaction would be if the Hildabeast were Prez. (2009 H1N1/Swine flu not such a good comparison...as it turned out to be less lethal than "regular flu").
“ The serious flaw in these calculations......”
I’m not sure I agree. Wuhuan has a population of 11M and is ground zero in China. He used China in is analysis.
Thank you for your work on this. If I’m understanding correctly, your projection (and hope) is that the total number infected in the U.S. will become approximately constant around March 23 +/-2. Which would mean the daily number of newly infected equals the number recovering? I’ve noticed on graphs that this number has remained nearly constant in China for 2 to 3 (?) weeks. That leaves a lot of people out there with the virus.
So, my question is, when can a 73 year old with heart disease safely go to the grocery store? I understand you can’t answer this question directly, but, any thoughts?
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