Posted on 03/16/2020 10:59:25 PM PDT by rintintin
I’m with you. Well said.
Not picking a side in your discussion but two things stick out to me.
The numbers reported by the Chi-coms are garbage.
The numbers reported by the Iranians are garbage.
Can’t base any accurate conclusion(s) using the stats from them - either way.
Yep.
Sure 4%, and you did the math on it ... LOL.
And in -your- epidemiology elderly Chinese eating bats and getting Chinese medical care translates over into how it is in America.
Hate to break it to you, but in America, almost nobody is on a ventilator. More people get a basic flu. But to the zombie apocalypse crowd this is the Black Death.
I can’t wait for the explanations in 2 weeks why it never swept America. Then we will be treated to how destroying the economy “saved” us. They will never admit it was all a political farce.
You can’t with a straight face claim all cases are counted.....many are infected with little or no symptoms
Who’s counting them?
We won’t have an accurate guess of a count till it’s over and it will sure as hell go up insofar as infected cases
Whereas those who are hospitalizedor die....they are by default ...amongsted the counted at this juncture
I notice you didn’t say Medical Doctor. Are you an MD? He is.
If this, if that, millions die, blah blah. Nonsense bs expert whatever you are.
There is no qualified medical expert on this subject. The source data isn’t reliable whatsoever
In March, the media was busy trying to destroy Pres. Trump via coronavirus19, WOO HOO FLOO! (Impeachment Phase 2)
Case fatality rates are, of necessity, calculated from the number of known cases. That is how epidemiologists determine the number.
The ~0.1% case fatality rate of influenza is correct. It is not diluted by an unknowable number of cases that were never diagnosed.
And Covid-19 is not now circulating around undetected, with only a few serious cases coming to the attention of medical professionals. If that were the case, serious cases would appear in a random pattern distributed all over. That is not what we see. We see cases that are linked to people who have traveled to or come from China. An emerging disease such as Covid-19 always starts with an index case, from which all other cases arise. This is the pattern we are seeing.
“And Covid-19 is not now circulating around undetected, with only a few serious cases coming to the attention of medical professionals.”
Trump’s science and medical advisers said just the opposite at his press conference today. they said they are sure there are many undetected cases, but they don’t know where or how many.
“I *know* that I’m not wrong about this.”
Look up hubris. And look up Captain Queeg reliving a moment of accomplishment. Everyone wants to be the hero expert. The Medical community is no different.
People WANT to put that tidy emergency action plan into action.
Search and Rescue teams LIVE for getting the lost hiker call.
The medical community is too wrapped up in this emotionally by now. Being in crisis mode, being the one everyone is asking things of is seductive.
And you say you worked in the field. But you didn’t work on this. And your epidemiology and math kinda reveal you should maybe be a little less certain you are right. You are badly missing the big picture.
I am, as I said, a Ph.D.
Where do you think MDs get their information? It is from people like me, who understand the basic science. It is painfully obvious that Ron Paul may be a physician, but he has no expertise in anything related to epidemiology.
And, are you incapable of doing math? I linked to the tracking website where case data is compiled, you can access and calculate the numbers for yourself and you don’t believe me that the death rate is approaching 4%? Seriously? Pop out a calculator and do your own calculations! You do know how to calculate percentages, don’t you?
As I have already said, a case fatality rate--the number that scientists use--is determined by the number of diagnosed cases once they have resolved. I am going to stick with the scientific definitions, and not speculate about numbers of cases that were asymptomatic or not diagnosed.
But they don't do that with the flu even when someone goes to a doctor. IOWs they don't have anything that even approaches accurate data about the flu so the CDC gives numbers like 22,000 to 55,000 deaths for 2019.
And Covid-19 is not now circulating around undetected, ...
It most certainly is. Even moreso than the flu. They only just delivered test kits to most cities late last week. Detection of this new virus is far below the wide-ranging estimates for the flu.
Dems/libs/fascists are opportunists.
I don’t like what I saw in China trying to control this virus months ago, so I don’t doubt there’s something about this virus that certainly bears caution and watching.
However, never put it past a dem to pass up an opportunity to grab more power and take away more liberty.
F you too. ???
Take care and God Bless!
Its folks with jobs like yous who will sustain our country for the next few months.
Its unfortunate we cannot easily obtain test kits and quick results.
Why not? That is clearly how the CDC comes up with its numbers for the flu. Thus the huge range between 22k and 55k.
And you say you worked in the field. But you didn’t work on this. And your epidemiology and math kinda reveal you should maybe be a little less certain you are right. You are badly missing the big picture.
I'm retired, so what moment of glory could I possibly be trying to relive? I already earned my awards and recognitions.
Please don't try to pass yourself off as knowledgeable about epidemiology (or anything else related to the spread of infectious disease), because you clearly aren't. The fact that you don't recognize that Ron Paul actually does not grasp the situation is proof enough of that.
Did you check out my calculations for yourself? The fatality rate (not case fatality rate, as that can only be calculated at the end) is nearly 4%, just as I said, isn't it? And if I'm wrong, please show me the mistake I made in my calculation.
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