Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Lets conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; Ill address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that well continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
Were looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely wont slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? Well examine just two factors hospital beds and masks among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
(Excerpt) Read more at threadreaderapp.com ...
We have already been told as long as we are symptom free we are to continue to work. My daughter who is currently a resident has been told the same thing
At least hand sanitizer I can understand. You cannot buy toilet paper in any store in the metro area right now! seriously!
We will know soon if that's good advice or not.
“Im still waiting to die from the Ebola virus or swine flu ( the last coved virus).”
And there was MERS and SARS that we survived. Amazing, but still there are those who want PANIC.
who knows? ur if every HCW exposed to a case goes into quarantine we will be out of HCW in a week or two. Pick your poison....
Jim likes to panic. Since most HC workers are younger, their risk picture is way better than the 98% of deaths reported in the US. Stay safe and thanks for serving.
thank you. I am not younger I am nearing 60. However I am not afraid of this one. So far it is not as bad as H1N1 was
I doubt that many doctors in Italy would agree with you.
The key words are so far.
The problem with your line of thought is that by the time you have enough information to change your mind, it will be too late to do the things that must be done very soon.
Strong mitigation practices should be put in place NOW.
what are you proposing ? we are a free society not China and there is little that can be done to prevent the spread at this point - not even padlocking people into entire buildings would likely help.
Sadly, a lot, many of the people here aint our own.
I think at 65 and healthy you'd have a better than a lot of the Americans I see walking around 20 or 30 years younger than you.
If this hits the hospitals in the US the way it has in other countries, the insurance companies will go bankrupt.
And very few inundated hospitals will keep up with billing.
The normalcy bias in the country would be a hilarious movie if it werentt so sad.
It costs about 1,500 to set it up.
Costs are not going to matter if they are patients into friggin tents on the lawn.
I would not be surprised to see the fed govt end up paying for a lot of this to prevent wholesale financial collapse of hospitals and insurance companies. It would be the right thing to do. You simply cannot plan for the day the black swan flies in and lands in your lake.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.