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To: DoughtyOne
What an outbreak curve looks like ... when doubling every 7 days.


29 posted on 02/17/2020 5:33:41 PM PST by qwertyz
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To: qwertyz

Thank you.

There’s some unknown factor with these sorts of infections.

They seem to come on like gangbusters, and then slowly die out.

You would think those contamination rates would continue blossoming out, but they just don’t seem to do it.

I look back on the projections for a number of flu cases, and it seems that just when it looked the bleakest, things started pulling back.

There’s not one nation outside of China that has seen the massive explosion of cases, like it did.

China’s documented “active cases” is on a track that will see the numbers of those cases growing smaller in the next 24-48 hours.

Look, I know hardly any of us trust those numbers, but in a weird way I think those numbers will come to reflect the reality in China.

I think this thing is going to wane over the next few days to a week.

If it doesn’t you can come back and remind me how far off base I was. I’ll be fair game for that.

We’ll see.

The numbers of recovered people is really starting to kick in now. The numbers of resolved cases is now approaching 20%. At this moment, it stands at 19.843%, fatalities (1873) vs Recoveries (12,667).

The numbers of active cases has only gone up by 349 so far today, and that number will shrink later tonight.

Again, these are the Chinese documented cases, and nothing really definitive can be proven with them. I still think they may wind up being more of an indicator of a turn around that folks might think.


33 posted on 02/17/2020 5:51:39 PM PST by DoughtyOne (The DNC has a taxidermist on speed dial for Nancy, Hillary, and Ruth.)
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