Posted on 10/19/2019 6:38:17 AM PDT by LS
@FloridaDude297 "LOUISIANA ELECTION. Exit polls and post election surveys are in. Republicans received 25% of the Black vote. GOP Black voters was 291% over 2015. #1 issue for Conservative voting Black Voters was Democrats attacking President Trump."
1) It has been my position all along that TRUMP is doing much better with blacks than Rs as a whole; that Trump would get 15% of the black vote but, generically, Rs would not this time around; and that 3-5% more blacks would stay home.
2) If this is correct, it means that blacks have already started shifting from just "backing Trump" to backing Rs generically; that they are doing so at the HIGHER levels of Trump approval (the margin has been 16%-26% for two years); and that Trump can expect even more than this (say, 28-30%).
3) Black turnout is up, so it may mean that I was wrong in thinking that a large number will also stay home. It appears they have taken the extra step.
I bought into this type hype in 2018. In 2018 it was 100% hype. I’ll believe blacks are leaving the plantation when I see actual 2020 vote tallies reflecting the movement.
If that is the case, then they must be pulling a significant number of votes from New Orleans and Baton Rouge.
That’s hard to believe as Bel Edwards received 89% of the vote in Orleans Parish.
It’s all because Trump fights back. Blacks understand and respect that. They’ve always had to.
Louisiana is already red. No big deal.
How well does Louisiana black voting patterns map to black voting in the rest of the country?
Don’t know. Also, FloridaDude never provides a link to data, but I’m told he’s usually right.
That would still track. Lose 11% in Orleans, lose more in the rest of the state.
I suspect NO urban blacks are far more lefty than rural blacks.
Not seeing it. Jon Bel Edwards got 87% of the vote in Orleans parish.
Guess you missed the 2016 election then, cuz it wasn’t hype.
Yes, Trump only got 8% (pretty common for Rs) but another 3% STAYED HOME in FL, NC, and PA at least (where we have data).
That means, in essence, Trump got close to 10% “real” black vote. That would be a high since, I think, the 60s.
Combined with:
12% have not voted in the last 4 elections &
21.4% Democrat
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3787367/posts
I believe Trump received a higher percentage of the black vote than previous Republicans. This is no surprise that with blacks losing jobs to illegals and the black family continuing to disintegrate and black kids getting murdered by each other that they would turn away from liberalism.
If in 2020, Trump receives 15-20% of the Black vote, the Dems. are dead !
Bush got 11% in 2004. 2008 and 2012 are throw outs. Again, hopeful hype.
I think many black men have a grudging admiration for Trump because he doesn’t take any BS. That and it’s undeniable Trump has made a huge difference in black unemployment. We may see an uptick in black men crossing over. With few exceptions black women are absolutely a lost cause. Just unreachable.
The Rs would be well advised to pitch individual Liberty and prosperity directly and specifically to "blacks". 25% "blacks" voting for Rs would be electoral death for the demonics.
“That would still track. Lose 11% in Orleans, lose more in the rest of the state.”
It could, but Orleans Parish is less than 60% black.
That’s not enough votes the take the Parish to 90% Democratic.
I don’t view it as a black vote for or against Ds. I view it as a vote for whom they know is helping them the most. Trump’s rallies allow him to bring the message directly to the people of his achievements, what he has done for everyone regarding the employment situation and above all for someone who gives those who want to live on their own two fee avoid the government plantation. Those Rs who choose to continue to roll along behind the media filter will falter regardless of what happens. This was evident in the mid terms.
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