Is Boris Johnson Actually Winning?

The Atlantic ^ | 15th October 2019 | Tom McTague

[naturalman1975]

Boris Johnson has not won a single vote in the House of Commons...

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And yet, despite everything, an intriguing question is bubbling up in London, even among some of those predisposed to hate anything Johnson does or stands for: Is he winning?

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Whatever else can legitimately be leveled at Johnson’s door, he cannot (yet) be accused of making the same mistake. He has defined what he wants from Brexit—maximum sovereignty and no more delays. The rest of his policy flows from there.

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Johnson’s political strategy at home is also showing early signs of success. In contrast to May, he has sought to control the agenda, setting a simple narrative in the public’s mind about what he is trying to achieve and why voters should not blame him if he fails. Like Donald Trump with the border wall with Mexico, he calculates that it is not failure that is punished by voters, but a lack of trying.

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Within a week it will be clear whether he has successfully managed to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU in a way that stands a chance of being ratified by the U.K. Parliament....

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In reality, no one—not even those at 10 Downing Street—is clear on what will happen should negotiations fall short this week or soon thereafter (there is now talk of a second emergency summit before October 31). If no agreement is reached, events could quickly begin to spiral out of Johnson’s control.

Is he winning? At the least, he hasn’t lost yet.

[pepsionice]

Either the EU passes a workable deal or the BREXIT occurs, either way....he wins.

[heshtesh]

I don’t believe it’s quite that simple, what I do believe Boris has accomplished is if the opposition does manage to stop Brixit the opposing parties and EU will be paying a huge bill when Boris wins a huge reelection with a firm mandate to go with it , either way Brexit will be happening...

[mewzilla]

...maximum sovereignty

Maximum...?

Seems to me sovereignty is a lot like pregnancy.

Either you are...or you aren't.

[VTenigma]

He’s able to learn from the master. Watching Trump do the same for three years on a more grand scale. He says Brexit is a done deal regardless and viola the EU comes to the table. That’s called “The Art of the Deal”.

[Cronos]

It’s about the UK passing a deal through parliament, not the EU. The ball is completely in the UK court. So far parliament has rejected every deala Long with rejecting no deal and cancelling Brexit.

[pepsionice]

I don’t see the opposition people in any form stopping Boris at this point. The EU may think that it’ll pass the extension deal, then be shocked that at least one of the member states (probably Hungary or Czech) will refuse to sign off.

In that 24-hour period, I think it’ll be the most hyped-up news period since Trump’s win in November 2016.

I’ll even lay down a bet that at least six EU-member countries are fully prepared to conduct trade talks the very next week, and being told they don’t have that authority anymore (that only the EU can conduct such talks). That will open the door to the next dismantling of the EU.

[bricklayer]

Well laid out scenario.

[heshtesh]

I would be very pleased if you are proven correct.

[Unam Sanctam]

If no deal, he is required by law to seek an extension under the Benn Act.

[SauronOfMordor]

And if he decides to ignore the Benn Act...

[pepsionice]

He has to send a request (required by the Benn Act).

However, ten minutes after he sends the request and they note it arrived...he can send a second request to nullify the initial request. This was brought up two weeks ago that by doing this....he complies with the Benn Act, yet dissolves the effect of the initial request.

Adding to the options, he can probably rely upon one of the EU members to refuse to sign off on the extension. There’s already been strong hints on a minimum of one country refusing to sign off on the EU vote. That....is all that is required to toss the extension out the front-door.

[Gay State Conservative]

There's a very interesting guy,a Brit named Pat Condell,who posts on youtube quite often.His three favorite subjects are Brexit,European politics and culture,and atheism. In one of his videos on Brexit he observed that "the European Union is very popular with politicians because it's been very good to politicians".

I think that very nicely explains Merkel,Junker The Drunker,Varadkar,and the various Remoaners in Britain.

Another one of my favorite quotes on Brexit comes from Jacob Rees-Mogg who recently observed that "a club that kicks you in the shins as you try to leave probably wasn't worth joining in the first place".

There can be no doubt that a Britain free to enforce its own laws,free to establish its own immigration and residency policies,free to sign its own trade agreements with the US,Canada,Australia,Japan (and others) will do just fine...as do many women who manage to extricate themselves from an abusive marriage.

[Redmen4ever]

Boris is winning by losing. Perhaps he belongs to the Church of the SubGenius.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_the_SubGenius

Actually, Boris is calling the bluff of a divided opposition in Parliament:

Labour - two-faced, wants and doesn’t want Brexit. It has lost a huge chunk of the working class to UKIP and now the Brexit Party.

Liberal Democrats - Europhiles. They have always wanted UK in the EU.

Scottish Nationals - They now kind of want Brexit as a pretext for Scottish independence.

All three parties say a no deal Brexit will usher in catastrophe. In fact, the UK is doing quite well in terms of GDP, unemployment and national budget.

The other parties are bluffing because Conservatives + Brexit > Labour + Lib Dems + Scottish Nationals; indicating that the Conservatives would win a new election.

Boris prefers an FTA-type deal, with the UK regaining the ability to negotiate trade deal with other countries. The EU wants a Norway-type relation, where UK is part of the “single market,” with trade agreements with the rest of the world decided by the EU. In such a case, Brexit would only mean the UK no longer make equalization payments into the EU (not an insignificant consideration).

[Gay State Conservative]

Pat Condell On Brexit

[sinsofsolarempirefan]

He needs to be clever about it. Too many concessions to the EU, especially ones that mean we can’t formulate trade deals with our shamefully shunned dominions and the US as well as emerging economies around the world and he will have rendered Brexit pointless.

[Timocrat]

However, ten minutes after he sends the request and they note it arrived...he can send a second request to nullify the initial request.

Under the Benn Act Boris Johnson must send a request for an extension in the form specifically set out as an amendment to the act. But as the UK is still a member of the EU until it leaves, it can veto it's own application for an extension - which is certainly against the spirit of the Benn act but is completely legal. If the veto is exercised at the last minute then the UK paliament would not have time to pass another stupid "Benn" act and the UK would leave by operation of treaty and law.

[Gay State Conservative]

If the veto is exercised at the last minute then the UK paliament would not have time to pass another stupid "Benn" act and the UK would leave by operation of treaty and law.

Unless,of course,Junker The Drunker would,out of the goodness of that great big heart of his,unilaterally grant Britain another extension which,I'll bet,he has the power to do under EU "law".

[Timocrat]

Unless,of course,Junker The Drunker would,out of the goodness of that great big heart of his,unilaterally grant Britain another extension which,I'll bet,he has the power to do under EU "law".

Anything is possible under the "top down" French system that the EU uses, but that would mean he could negate any veto, from countries such as Hungary etc, which would render the veto meaningless.

[backwoods-engineer]

Church of the Subgenius is one of many attempts by antheist technology workers to subvert and ridicule Christianity. Flying Spaghetti Monster is another. These are not things to embrace or even laugh about. They are deadly serious. One day, everyone will find out just how real Jesus Christ is.